Technical issue: the probability of girls having had sex with big dicks

B_johnschlong

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Hi all, I'm new here, so forgive me for opening with a technical (and hopefully hilarious) issue. I hope it is interesting though. (Also, excuse me for my bad English, I'm not a native speaker).

A series of questions that's been on my mind for quite a while is: how many girls/women have actually had sex with a "big" penis? And how big is the chance that a woman has sex with such a dong at least once in her life? And how about girls in my age group, that is, those between 20 and 30? And where exactly should I look to find girls who've never had hung schlongs? In small towns or in big cities?

I consider myself to be average (maybe a little bigger than average), but I'm a bit of a jealous and shy person. So I would be devastated to know that a girl I'm trying to date has ever slept with a 9 incher.

So let's try to figure this out, using the most basic steps in probability. (Your help is welcome).

Some data to start:

-for our purpose, let's call all cocks bigger than 8inches "big"
-let's assume that around 1 in 10 men has such a "big" one
-women in the West (Europe, America) have on average 4 to 5 different sexual partners in their lives (surprisingly low number, I think, but it's a common result of surveys). Let's take the higher number and keep it at 5.
-let's divide the cohort of women into age groups, and assign a number of sexual partners to these groups: let's assume that young women have more sexual partners than older women, with something like the following ratio:
:: girls between 15 and 20 will probably have had 1 sexual partner on average before reaching 20
:: girls between 20 and 30 will probably have had 3 sexual partners on average before reaching 30
:: girls between 30 and 40 will probably have had 4 sexual partners on average before reaching 40
:: girls between 40 and 60 will probably have had 5 sexual partners on average before reaching 60
-let's assume that women are very social creatures, and that they share information about sexual partners; so let's deduce that 1 out of the 4-5 sexual partners of all women are actually buddies that have been passed on between them ("you should try X because he's Y, Z). Some of those buddies will have been recommended specifically for their big schlongs.
>>>see this thread: http://www.lpsg.org/showthread.php?t=21672
where a hung dude tells us about his wife talking to her girlfriends about his size, even when he's in the same room!

-moreover, let's assume that some women are more socially connected than others; social network analysis of women in big cities shows more or less the following distribution, pretty consistently:
:: the top 20% of well connected women have as many social ties as the other 80% combined (the 'social champions')
:: when you look at the top 50% of women they have around twice the number of ties than the bottom group
-in small towns, social network distributions are much more equally spread (that is, all women have approximately the same number of social ties)


So where are we?

-an average woman who has had 3 sexual partners in her life, has a 33% chance of having had a "big" one (20 - 30 year olds)
-an average woman who has had 4 sexual partners in her life, sees her chances rise to a 40% chance of having had a "big" one (30 - 40 year olds)
-an average woman who has had 5 sexual partners in her life, sees her chances rise to a 50% chance of having had a "big" one (40 - 60 year olds)

Now nuance:
-the 8 inchers are passed around between women
-in big cities, the top social networked women will share more 8 inchers, than the unconnected
-in small cities, the situation is even worse: news about 8 inchers in town spreads very rapidly and evenly


So let's increase the chance of women in our age groups, with a ratio of say 20% for the well networked women, with 10% for the average woman, and with 0% for the socially less connected women.

-an average woman who has had 3 sexual partners in her life, and who is socially extremely well connected has a 33% + (20% of 33%) = 39% chance of having had a "big" one (20 - 30 year olds)
-an average woman who has had 3 sexual partners in her life, and who is socially normally connected has a 33% + (10% of 33%) = 36% chance of having had a "big" one (20 - 30 year olds)
-an average woman who has had 3 sexual partners in her life, and who is socially less connected has a 33% chance of having had a "big" one (20 - 30 year olds)

-an average woman who has had 4 sexual partners in her life, and who is extremely well connected socially sees her chances rise to a 40% + (20% of 40%) = 48% chance of having had a "big" one (30 - 40 year olds)
-an average woman who has had 4 sexual partners in her life, and who is averagely connected socially sees her chances rise to a 40% + (10% of 40%) = 44% chance of having had a "big" one (30 - 40 year olds)
-an average woman who has had 4 sexual partners in her life, and who is less connected socially sees her chances rise to a 40% chance of having had a "big" one (30 - 40 year olds)


-an average woman who has had 5 sexual partners in her life, and who's extremely well connected socially sees her chances rise to a 50% + (20% of 50%) = 60% chance of having had a "big" one (40 - 60 year olds)
-an average woman who has had 5 sexual partners in her life, and who's averagely well connected socially sees her chances rise to a 50% + (20% of 50%) = 60% chance of having had a "big" one (40 - 60 year olds)
-an average woman who has had 5 sexual partners in her life, and who's not well connected socially sees her chances rise to a 50% chance of having had a "big" one (40 - 60 year olds)


Let's make some very simple conclusions:

-dudes who don't like the idea of having to go with a girl who's likely to have had a big dong before, should stick to going with young girls
-these same dudes should carefully analyse the geography of their hunting ground: avoid small towns, go to big cities
-once in a big city, analyse the social network of the women you meet, before having a sexual relationship with them; stay away from the well-networked women, only choose socially undernetworked ones


In short: the ideal girl to have sex with, without fearing that she's had a monster dong before, has the following profile:

-she's between 15 and 18 years old
-she lives in a big city
-she's rather lonely

(The ideal of the "virgin" comes to mind here. Anyways, we're stating the obvious.)


Never date the following women:

-aged 40 to 60
-living in a small town
-having lots of girlfriends
Because there's a 60% chance that she's had a monster schlong before, which is likely to upset you! :smile:


Lol. Hope this helps for some shy dudes out there, like me!


[PS: this is a very impressionist approach to the issue, I'm sure there are flaws and that smarter dudes will come to more correct conclusions, but I hope it gives some pointers anyways.]
 

Irvy

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So, basically, you're saying that old ugly guys should try to sleep with 15 year olds. I think that's already happening ;)

Wow, that was very well thought out and complicated. Think I'll go read it again, I blurred a bit halfway through!

Welcome to the site, by the way!
 

rawbone8

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Never date anyone.
Never have sex.
Because they might
see an image of a
bigger penis
on the internet.
:eek22:

There. That should do the trick.
 

Katiecav_34D

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first off your hypothesis is way off. From what I've read 90% of men fall into the average catagory 5 to 7 inches. Of the remaining 5% are smaller than 5 inches and 5% are bigger than 7 inches. Of the 5% bigger than 7 inches 80% of them are between 7 and 8 inches. so to find a guy over 8 inches. It would be 20X5 or 1 in a 100. I knew my stat class would pay off.
Katie