Texas politics

[Industrialsize]

Without saying or knowing whether it will be a good or a bad thing, going strictly by my hunch, I predict that Beto will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020.

 

[TexanStar]

Without saying or knowing whether it will be a good or a bad thing, going strictly by my hunch, I predict that Beto will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020.

If he runs (that's still a pretty big "if"), I think that will be the case as well. All elections are part popularity contest and it's hard to overstate how immensely likable he is. I think his personality and his positive outlook generate enthusiasm wholesale and that enthusiasm will blow up Democratic primaries (like even if Democrats prefer another candidate, it's only the opinions of people who actually turn out to vote in the primaries that matter. It is rare for voter turnout in primaries to exceed 30% and I think based on his track record he could do for primary turnout what he did for election turnout in TX and win on the strength of that)..

I don't know what his odds would be against Trump. He has the respect for other viewpoints of a moderate, but his own views are very left/progressive and that's going to inspire a lot of opposition votes in a general election (people who dislike Trump but dislike progressives even more).

I also don't know that he's going to run. I don't know how broadly understood it is how hard he worked during the 2018 senate race. He literally spent almost 2 years on the road campaigning across Texas. I have never seen a candidate personally campaign for anything as hard as Beto did. Lots of old school door to door block walking, town halls, etc. Campaigning for president would be two more years away from them, and then if he won, that's a whole lot of attention on his kids in a way that wouldn't be on them if he was "just" a senator or governor. He could run for pres, but I could very easily see him declining at least until the kids are older.

Dem bundler: Donors waiting on 2020 commitments until Beto O'Rourke makes decision

No, Beto Won't Be Presidential Based On Seniority. It Will Have to be Magic.
Last week I found myself trying to explain Beto to a New Yorker. I didn’t do a good job. I do better with a day to think about it, a desk, a web browser and an editor than I do trying to talk on my feet.

 

[TexanStar]

heh, not to make too grand of a comparison, but someone pointed out for me that Abraham Lincoln lost his race for Illinois senate in 1858 by 8 points.

Lincoln then ran for president and won in 1860 (and beat the exact same guy who won the senate seat in 1858).

 

[TexanStar]

Texas Democrats won 47% of votes in congressional races. Should they have more than 13 of 36 seats?

Texas Republicans collected half of the votes statewide in congressional races this month. But even after Democrats flipped two districts, toppling GOP veterans in Dallas and Houston, Republicans will control 23 of the state’s 36 seats.

It’s the definition of gerrymandering.

“You wouldn’t expect perfect proportionality, but when something is really skewed, that’s probably a sign that something’s amiss,” said redistricting expert Michael Li.

Again, this isn't a GOP specific thing. If you go back in time to my HS days, the same thing was being done to preserve a Democrat majority. That said, it's so odious to the concept of a Democratic Republic. Courts really need to step up and do their job and force the issue.

 

[TexanStar]

Looks like no firm answer for another 6 weeks at the earliest, but a 2020 run is in the realm of possibility.

Beto O’Rourke No Longer Rules Out Potential 2020 Presidential Run

He said he’s focused on his family and representing his district until leaving the House on Jan. 3. But after that, he and his wife will “think about what we can do next to contribute to the best of our ability to this community.”

O’Rourke then grinned at his wife, Amy, asking, “Was that OK?”



He's been at the forefront in a lot of the recent border discussion, but it's hard to glean much from that since he lives in a border town so it's a more relevant topic than for most politicians (speaking out in public doesn't necessarily mean he's prepping for a presidential run).

BETO O'ROURKE SLAMS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HANDLING OF MIGRANT CARAVAN: ‘LET'S DO THIS THE RIGHT WAY’

 

[Industrialsize]

The Case for Beto O’Rourke


.........Washington was wrong about Obama and there are many reasons to believe it’s wrong about Beto. Not only should Beto run, there is a strong case to make that if he were to do so, he would be one of the strongest candidates in the field.

First, the best campaigns marry enthusiasm and organization. Any smart campaign with competent staff can build a top-flight organization, but enthusiasm is not something that can be engineered in a lab. It is spontaneous and only a few candidates are able to inspire it. Enthusiasm means more volunteers, more first time voters, and more grassroots donations.

I have never seen a Senate candidate—including Obama in 2004—inspire the sort of enthusiasm that Beto did in his race. This is about more than Lebron wearing a Beto hat, or Beyonce sporting one on Instagram. It’s about the people all over the country with no connection to Texas with signs in their yards and stickers on their cars. It’s about the hundreds of thousands of people across the country who gave small dollar donations because they were inspired by his candidacy and moved by his pledge not to take PAC money. It’s about the crowds of thousands in small towns that would turn out to hear him speak on rainy weeknights. It’s about the passionate army of volunteers who knocked doors, made calls, and sent text messages. He built a national grassroots movement for change and many of those people are waiting to be called into duty and head to Iowa and New Hampshire. The enthusiasm is real and matters. If Beto were to go to Iowa City next week, I am confident he would draw a crowd three times larger than any candidate has since Obama first stumped there..............
The Case for Beto O'Rourke | Crooked Media

 

[TexanStar]

Looks like no firm answer for another 6 weeks at the earliest, but a 2020 run is in the realm of possibility.

Beto O’Rourke No Longer Rules Out Potential 2020 Presidential Run

He said he’s focused on his family and representing his district until leaving the House on Jan. 3. But after that, he and his wife will “think about what we can do next to contribute to the best of our ability to this community.”

O’Rourke then grinned at his wife, Amy, asking, “Was that OK?”



He's been at the forefront in a lot of the recent border discussion, but it's hard to glean much from that since he lives in a border town so it's a more relevant topic than for most politicians (speaking out in public doesn't necessarily mean he's prepping for a presidential run).

BETO O'ROURKE SLAMS TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HANDLING OF MIGRANT CARAVAN: ‘LET'S DO THIS THE RIGHT WAY’

Got an email from Beto today (a mass mailing, I'm not on his friends list or anything). For the curious, I'm posting the email below here because the latter article I linked above has some of the message contents but not all of it. This is the full text:

It should tell us something about her home country that a mother is willing to travel 2,000 miles with her 4-month-old son to come here. Should tell us something about our country that we only respond to this desperate need once she is at our border. So far, in this administration, that response has included taking kids from their parents, locking them up in cages, and now tear gassing them at the border.

People are leaving violent countries where they fear for their lives. Without money, they are subsisting on hope for their kids, for themselves, that they can get to safety. After being denied the ability to lawfully petition for asylum for the last 10 days, they are desperate.

We choose how to respond to this challenge.

Let’s do this the right way and follow our own laws. Allow asylum seekers to petition for asylum at our ports of entry. They must do so peacefully and follow our laws; but we must also ensure the capacity to effectively and timely process those claims (right now 5,000 waiting in Tijuana and only 40 to 100 are processed a day).

Those who have a credible fear of returning to their home country (as determined by a U.S. judge) will be able stay until their full asylum request has been determined. Those applicants ultimately granted asylum will then live in the U.S., make us a better country for being here, and those who are not granted asylum will be returned to their home country.

Longer term: work with the people of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador to address underlying conditions that are causing them to flee in the first place. That means addressing effects of our failed past involvement in those countries (in their civil wars, drug trade and drug wars) and the institutional failings in those countries (rule of law).

It won’t be easy and will involve a much greater investment of time, focus and resources. Or we can continue to ignore those countries and their people until they show up at our border.

- Beto

Separate question for my own curiosity: Beto's the only candidate who's campaign I've ever donated money to. I've voted for lots of Dems, but he's the only candidate who inspired me enough to cut a check. Anyone ever donated to another candidate able to remark if these kinds of emails are typical or atypical? I honestly don't know how commonplace it is for candidates to personally mail their constituents. I do get lots of DNC junk mail kind of stuff, but Beto's emails stand out.

 

[TexanStar]

lol, this is dumb.

Everyone saying that the plaque is grossly inaccurate & insulting and should be taken down, but pointing fingers about who should remove it (prolly cuz they're afraid of voter backlash in the future and they don't want it attributed to them).

Texas AG says board led by Gov. Greg Abbott can remove Confederate plaque in the Capitol
State Rep. Eric Johnson, D-Dallas, renewed his call to take down the plaque, noting that the preservation board had never approved his request to do so.

 

[TexanStar]

Second disclaimer: As much as I adore Beto, I hope he doesn't run for president in 2020. I hope he runs for governor of TX in 2022. I don't think he's built up the experience for president yet, but I think he'd make a hell of a governor and it'd give him the credentials for a future presidential run while also letting him take some time off to reconnect w/ his family.

Texas Observer stealin mah thunder.

Dear Beto and Julián, Please Don’t Run for President
Texas Democrats should fervently hope that neither Castro nor O’Rourke runs for president, for the simple reason that Texas needs them a lot more than the nation does. It’s important that a Democrat beat Trump in 2020, but only one person can win the nomination. Most failed presidential campaigns are high-risk bids for personal glory and a waste of time and money. Meanwhile, state government and Congress bend and shapes people’s lives in unseen ways. Texas is in dire need of strong Democratic candidates who can run good campaigns and reverse the damage that decades of Republican control has done to the state. In 2020, Senator John Cornyn will be up for re-election, and the governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and other statewide offices will be chosen by voters in 2022.



Julian for Senate in 2020, O'Rourke for governor in 2022, would work well for me

 

[SonyToyo]

Texas Democrats won 47% of votes in congressional races. Should they have more than 13 of 36 seats?

Texas Republicans collected half of the votes statewide in congressional races this month. But even after Democrats flipped two districts, toppling GOP veterans in Dallas and Houston, Republicans will control 23 of the state’s 36 seats.

It’s the definition of gerrymandering.

“You wouldn’t expect perfect proportionality, but when something is really skewed, that’s probably a sign that something’s amiss,” said redistricting expert Michael Li.

Again, this isn't a GOP specific thing. If you go back in time to my HS days, the same thing was being done to preserve a Democrat majority. That said, it's so odious to the concept of a Democratic Republic. Courts really need to step up and do their job and force the issue.

You can’t gerrymander a senate seat

 

[TexanStar]

You can’t gerrymander a senate seat

 

[SonyToyo]

Awww

Aren’t they cute

 

[TexanStar]

This is my county, btw (Tarrant is Fort Worth and its suburbs). It's internal GOP party bullshit so doesn't affect me directly, but if you want to see some good examples of why GOP is the party of bigotry, why even conservative leaning minorities are hesitant to sign on with this crap, and some straight up fascist ranting about media bias it's an entertaining read.

I was glad to be part of flipping Tarrant blue this year and hope to see it even bluer next election. Fuck these guys.

Tarrant Republicans who want to remove Muslim are targeting others in party

 

[TexanStar]

This is my county, btw (Tarrant is Fort Worth and its suburbs). It's internal GOP party bullshit so doesn't affect me directly, but if you want to see some good examples of why GOP is the party of bigotry, why even conservative leaning minorities are hesitant to sign on with this crap, and some straight up fascist ranting about media bias it's an entertaining read.

I was glad to be part of flipping Tarrant blue this year and hope to see it even bluer next election. Fuck these guys.

Tarrant Republicans who want to remove Muslim are targeting others in party

Here's another article on this (has some more background)

Just stung by election losses, Tarrant GOP is wasting its time in fight over a Muslim in its midst

Over in Tarrant County, where Republicans just lost a few races in the most conservative urban stronghold in America, you’d think the GOP would be hyperfocused on 2020.

But no, rather than rallying around candidate recruitment and fundraising, some Tarrant Republicans are busy fighting over a Muslim in their midst.

A small but decibel-mighty faction is determined to remove the county GOP vice chairman, Shahid Shafi, a two-term Southlake City Council member, a surgeon who has held hospital leadership roles across the region and — heaven forbid — a practicing Muslim.

 

[TexanStar]

This is the fallout of the votes cast by rural counties and Evangelicals. The bad hombres the GOP claims to be so worried about are running this shitshow.

I wish this report had come out just 1 month earlier. Dunno if it would've made a difference, but it might have. People get so focused on GDP as the only measure of how well a state is doing and lose track of stuff like this.

Texas’ Uninsured Rate for Kids, Highest in the Country, Increased for the First Time in Years
More than 20 percent of all uninsured kids in the country live in Texas, according to a new report.

Even as Republicans boast of a strong economy and low unemployment, the United States has taken unprecedented steps backward in health insurance coverage for kids — and once again, Texas is among the worst offenders. For the first time in the decade that this data has been tracked, the number of uninsured children in the United States actually increased in 2017, according to a new report, which points to the federal government’s sabotage of the Affordable Care Act as a likely primary factor. And the decline in coverage is on track to continue, researchers say.

In the new data, the Lone Star State ranks where it typically does on matters of health care coverage: at the bottom. Home to more than 20 percent of all uninsured kids in the country, Texas has the highest number and rate of kids without health coverage, according to the annual Georgetown University report, based on U.S. Census data. After several years of slow but steady progress, Texas saw one of the country’s largest spikes in its rate of uninsured children, which increased from 9.8 percent in 2016 to 10.7 percent last year — more than double the national rate. The increase extends across race, ethnicity and income level. About 80,000 fewer Texas kids were insured in 2017 than the year before.

 

[TexanStar]

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton Celebrates Eight-Year Sentence Against Woman Who Accidentally Voted Illegally

Earlier this month, the Texas 2nd Court of Appeals affirmed Rosa Maria Ortega’s eight-year prison sentence for illegal voting. Attorney General Ken Paxton celebrated the decision in a triumphant press release boasting of Ortega’s draconian punishment. But there is nothing just about the fact that Ortega may spend the next eight years languishing behind bars for unknowingly casting illegal ballots. To the contrary, her sentence is wildly out of proportion with her crime—the possible result of prosecutorial chicanery during closing arguments that has no place in a courtroom. And it’s yet another example of prosecutors using isolated cases of illegal voting to intimidate legitimate voters out of casting a ballot.

 

[TexanStar]

This is a really interesting read. It's not much to do with Beto's political stance and more focused on the mechanics behind his senate campaign and how it's literally an evolution of Bernie Sanders campaign (again, not the politics, but wheels that were turning to propel the campaign forward).

I was familiar with some of the stuff they were doing, but didn't realize how it originated.

@Tight_N_Juicy might be interesting for you even if just for the Bern.

How Beto Built His Texas-Sized Grassroots Machine
To pull off the largest GOTV effort in state history, O’Rourke turned to the top architects of Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign.

 

[TexanStar]

Influential Texas GOP Activist Says He’s a ‘White Nationalist’ and ‘Proud of it’

Ray Myers, a right-wing activist who helped draft the Texas GOP platform for 2018, proudly declared himself to be a white nationalist in a post on his Facebook page last week.

The term “white nationalism” refers to the explicit pursuit of leveraging powers of the state to legally enforce a white supermajority in a country, most often through the use of extreme immigration policies and federal targeting of non-white citizens.

.....

With vote on removal of Muslim leader looming, Tarrant County GOP to hear from anti-Islam speaker

Members of the Tarrant County Republican Party are preparing to host an anti-Muslim speaker just weeks before the local party's leaders vote on the removal of a Muslim vice chairman from his post.

 

[TexanStar]

Beto O’Rourke Reflects On the Border as His Tenure in Congress Ends
As the congressman from El Paso and former U.S. Senate candidate departs the House, he expresses regret and pride about his effort at teaching America about the border.

TM: This week the border is front and center again with President Trump threatening a partial government shutdown if he doesn’t get $5 billion for his border wall. Your successor in the House, Veronica Escobar, has said that Democrats allow Republicans to set the terms of the debate over border security to the detriment of communities like El Paso. Do you agree with that?

BO: I do and I’ve been very disappointed in Democrats who can be forgiven because they don’t perhaps understand the border, they haven’t lived here or maybe not visited or ever been to the border. So you end up conceding the point before you’ve even begun. In the 2014 immigration reform measure that passed the Senate, it was going to double the size of Border Patrol from 20,000 agents to 40,000 agents; it was going to further militarize the border; it was going to include physical barriers and walls. And I remember asking the Democratic Senate leadership just what they were thinking. And it was clear in their answer that they just didn’t understand the border. And there was President Obama and other prominent Democrats saying, ‘first we’re going to secure the border.’ What is a secure border if you don’t define it upfront? You’ll never get there. Or you have Senator Obama and Senator (Hillary) Clinton voting for the 2006 Secure Fence Act, again not out of malice, just out of ignorance. They didn’t understand what they were doing. And so if you don’t have a party that will represent and stand for the six million of us who live on the U.S. side of the U.S.-Mexico border and our communities, then no one’s going to be that advocate so I think with Veronica and people like Congressman (Filemon) Vela and even (Congressman) Will Hurd—so something that crosses party lines but is very much rooted in representation from the border. Perhaps there’s a coalition necessary to have policies reflect the reality on the ground and reflect our lives and reflect our values. Your first question about Artesia under the Obama administration and this question really help make the point: Let’s not lay this at the feet of the Republican party or President Trump or any one person. This is all of us. This week will be very telling in terms of just how much progress we’ve made on this and whether we’re going to get policies that effectively represent the interests of the border.

 

[TexanStar]

Got another email from Beto tonight. Posting it here if anyone's interested since it won't have hit mainstream media yet. No declaration of candidacy, but I haven't seen him go after Trump like this before.

(my name here),

The government of the greatest country the world has ever known, the wealthiest, most powerful nation on the planet: closed until further notice.

This shutdown – hundreds of thousands of our fellow Americans working without pay during the holidays, basic government functions no longer available to the taxpayers who fund them – didn’t have to happen. The Senate passed a compromise government funding bill two days ago, 100–0. The men and women who can’t agree on what to name a post office were able to unite and unanimously agree on how to fund the entire government.

But maybe it was intended to happen.

Maybe in the face of an investigation that seeks the facts surrounding allegations of collusion with a foreign government and obstruction of justice within our own government… as one aide after another pleads guilty… as the stock market tumbles… as men and women intent on keeping their dignity and their conscience flee his administration… perhaps the President calculates that by adding to the blizzard of bizarre behavior over the last two years and shutting down the government at Christmas, while his own party still controls each branch of it, the institutions that we need for our democracy to function (and to ensure no man is above the law) will be overwhelmed.

From a President who promised action, we got distraction.

But my concern for the country goes beyond the immediate pain and dysfunction that this shutdown will cause. Beyond even ensuring that this President is held accountable. What’s happening now is part of a larger threat to us all.

If our institutions no longer work, if we no longer have faith in them, if there’s no way to count on government even functioning (three shutdowns this year alone), then perhaps ultimately we become open to something else. Whatever we choose to call it, whether we openly acknowledge it at all, my fear is that we will choose certainty, strength and predictability over this constant dysfunction, even if it comes at the price of our democracy (the press; the ballot box; the courts; congress and representative government).

If there were ever a man to exploit this precarious moment for our country and our form of government, it’s Trump. Sending 5,400 troops to U.S. border communities during the midterm elections. Organizing Border Patrol “crowd control” exercises in El Paso on election day. Defying our laws by taking children from their parents, keeping kids in tent camps, turning back refugees at our ports. Calling the press “the enemy of the people” and celebrating violence against members of the media. Pitting Americans against each other based on race and religion and immigration status. Inviting us to hate openly, to call Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals, to call asylum seekers animals, to describe Klansmen and neo-Nazis as very fine people. Seeking to disenfranchise fellow Americans with made up fears of voter fraud. Isolating us from the other great democracies as he cozies up to dictators and thugs. Lying again and again. Making a mockery of the United States – once the indispensable nation, the hope of mankind.

So we can engage in the immediate fights about blame for this latest shutdown… fall into his arguments about a wall, or steel slats, at a time of record border security and in the face of asylum seekers – our neighbors – fleeing the deadliest countries in the world… we can respond to his name-calling and grotesque, bizarre behavior… or we can pull up, look back at this moment from the future and see exactly what is happening to our country.

We are at risk of losing those things that make us special, unique, exceptional, those things that make us the destination for people the world over, looking for a better life and fleeing countries who lack our institutions, our rule of law, our stability.

If ever there was a time to put country over party it is now. This is not about a wall, it’s not about border security, it’s not about Democrats and Republicans. It’s about the future of our country – whether our children and grandchildren will thank us or blame us. Whether we will lose what was fought for, made more perfect, by the men and women who risked and lost their lives at Antietam, on Omaha beach, in Jackson, Mississippi… whether we will be defined by greatness and ambition or pettiness and fear. Whether we will continue to live in the world’s greatest democracy, or something else.

In the short term – let’s pass the funding bill that was agreed to by the Senate 100–0 just a few days ago. Send it to the President with the confidence that we represent the people of this country and that we are willing to override his veto if he cannot respect their will. Show that government can work, that we can see past our immediate differences to serve the greater good. To put country over party. To put country over one man. To do what we were sent here to do.

In the longer term – we must strengthen all of our institutions at the very moment they are called into question. Some clear opportunities for Congress: Ensure that our representatives in government reject PAC money, corporate and special interest influence. Demand that they hold town halls in our communities, listen to and respond to their constituents. Show America that they are working for us and for no one else.

Take action on the most urgent issues of our day: climate change, healthcare, endless war, income inequality, immigration, the vibrancy of rural communities and inner cities, education and criminal justice reform. Define the goal in each area, build the coalition to achieve it, find the common ground (between parties, between branches of government), and move forward. Prove that our system of government – whatever its problems – is still the best thing under the sun.

It’s action vs. distraction. One will save our democracy, the other will lead to its end.

- Beto