I really do not know why anyone, believed the outcome would be any different than it was.
The Supreme Leader controls everything...and all the pie in the sky happiness and enthralled cheerleading by the ever hopeful WillTom on the first page, whose genuine desire for peace and goodwill and actual belief in, i applaud, even if it is totally unreachable not to mention naive when considering the country it is being applied to.
It is precisely this type of naivety with regard to the Iranian issue, that had me making snide comments back in the desperately optimistic "Obama reaching out to Iran" thread.
It certainly was a nice try by Obama, but, ultimately futile, considering the situation.
it should be plainly obvious, to everyone now, what the intentions of the Iranian regime is...the one and only intention of all of this...is the drive for nuclear weapons. Khomeini and the Guardian Council controls everything, and they have been following the North Korean playbook from day one, of how to keep stringing the world along while never seriously considering agreement.
Outreach and negotiation have officially failed.
Obama is going to have to strike iran militarily, because if he does not, the Israelis will.
The way this election is being interpreted by the Israeli public and more importantly, in the upper levels of the Israeli Government, military and intelligence echelons, right now, is really rather obvious and simple. There is now no way out, and if the USA does not act within a couple of months there is no other choice
Khomeni has and had no intention of letting anything, even an election, interfere with his plans going forward for nuclear weapons. The IRGC and the police and the militias in the country were and are out in force, to keep tight and total control over the citizens in the aftermath of this obvious outcome.
This should be interpreted in no other way, by Obama and the state department as anything other than a total refutation of any outreach, and confirmation that Iran is saying to the US that there is nothing we can do to stop them reaching their goal of nuclear weapons and the influence and power those weapons will give them in the region.
We have no other choice now.
We must unleash a massive conventional attack, on all the numerous facilities of the Iranian nuclear program, and they are indeed numerous, ranging from research centers, to reactors, to even university research sites, etc. etc...in addition, we must unleash a massive attack no the IRGC, all its bases, both army, navy and air force, as well as all the intelligence and defense facilities of the nation.
there is no other way....because iif we do not wipe them out with a massive conventional bomb and missile attack, the Israelis, who do not have the capability for a massive onslaught, will choose the most effective possible attack, since they know they will likely only get 1 shot. The most effective attack, is with low-yield nukes, and the likelihood of that, IMO, is around 50%
Do not ever underestimate the Israelis possible reactions, as this is the most dangerous and existential threat Israel has faced since the Yom Kippur War, and for those not familiar with the events of that fall, when Egyptian and Syrian armor smashed through in the Sinai and on the Golan, the IDF reserves were a long way from ready to mobilize, the active ground force on the borders had been over run, and the Israeli Air Force suffered devastating losses in the Sinai because of the Soviet supplied SAM's to the Egytians...
within 48 hours, Moshe Dayan told Prime Minister Golda Meir that this is the end of the third temple" (the impending destruction of the jewish state) and Israel went on only its second ever nuclear alert....the "black squadron" (a special squadron of IAF F-4's outfitted to carry the nuclear payload) went on full alert at Tel Nof airbase. At the same time, the IDF's Jericho missile base at Zachariah, went on full alert, and nuclear artillery shells were prepared to target Damascus.
Now, that occurred after 48 hours of a dire situation, when Israeli reserves had been fully mobilized and begun to push back and stabilize the situation, yet Israel was still on nuclear alert throughout the next week, even as the counterattacks drove back the Syrians of the Golan, and Surrounded and cut off the Egyptian 3rd army in the Sinai.
so now, how do you think the Israelis are going to react, to an enemy who has threatened them with extinction, having the possibility of delivering a nuclear warhead (or several) to Israel in under 20 minutes?
The Israelis simply cannot, and will not live under that threat.
So the question is...based on how we now watch North Korea act, now that they have the bomb, are willing to watch Iran do the same thing?
two psychotic regimes playing nuclear brinskmanship like it is a game of checkers whenever they want something?
It really comes down now, to two choices. When ISrael has gone on nuclear alerts in the past, it is not to scare the Arabs, who are already scared...it is to motivate the US to act, whether by resupply in 1967 and 1973 or by scud hunting in 1990-1991.
It is Israel's way of saying to the USA "handle it your way or we will handle it our way".
So, we are now faced with the ultimate question. an Israeli conventional strike on certain Iranian targets will do nothing other than merely slowing developement of the nuclear weapons.
since they do not have the option of merely delaying the problem, a conventional strike is a poor option.
the Israelis using low yield nukes, is there way of dealing the type of damage to the Iranian nuclear program that we (USA) can deal rather easilty with our conventional forces, without going nuclear.
so, it is up to us. Do we want to be the ones to deal the massive, though conventional destruction of the entire Iranian nuclear program and affiliated targets, with our precision munitions, and ability to limit collateral damage, or, do we want the Israeli's to do it their way?
That is the question Obama must face, and no matter what he says, or how he threatens and pressures Netanyahu, ultimately, when faced with the grave decision, Netanyahu's duty is the protection of the state of Israel, not to be gracious and subservient to Obama.
Netanyahu used to serve in Sayeret Matkal, as did Ehud Barak...and nothing that someone like Obama says, who knows nothing about fighting for one's life or facing existential destruction will deter either of them
Obama is now between the proverbial rock and a hard place. There are only two choices, and both are military.
