The Pendulum Swings

[B_caneadea]

Following are the results of a new Time magazine poll:

Would you like the next President to be different from or similar to President Bush?

Similar----------36%
Different--------60%
Don't know------ 5%
______________________________________________________________
In the elections for the House of Representatives next year, would you be more likely to vote for the Republican or the Democrat?

Republican------35%
Democrat-------48%
Other----------- 4%
Don't know------11%

HELLO. ANY COMMENTS?

 

[Number 51]

HELLO. ANY COMMENTS?

Well, if you insist....

Generic preference polls like these typically are worthless. That's because people vote for candidates, not labels. For example, in 2006 there'll be 435 races for the House of Representatives. Not a one, though, will have a generic Democrat facing a generic Republican; rather, they'll have an individual Democrat facing an individual Republican (if both parties contest each race). The races will be decided by the individual dynamics of the candidate matchups, not just their party labels.

 

[SurferGirlCA]

Well, there's one label that seems to work pretty well that's been left out of this discussion: incumbent.

 

[Onslow]

Great thing about this idiotic poll (and for the record most of these polls are idiotic); is that, it has been conducted at a time when President Bush is at his lowest rating. This means he will soon be sporting numbers which are creeping back upwards. You know, it has been shown--through various scientific studies--that the majority of folks tend to herd along en masse with whatever the latest popular fad is. In this case it is the let's all vote Democrat next time, where as a few years ago the deal was to all vote Republican or Libertarian or anything other than Democrat. Such is life.

Still don't believe in the herding mentality? Take a look at some fashion trends, music trends or any other matter. It first comes out everyone hates it, then some pop star or whoever has a big fan base comes along and says they like it and suddenly everyone not only likes it, they love it.

Come back a year from now and those same people on the same questions will shift their votes. Come to think of it, give those same questions to another group of people and the results might well be radically different.


I live for the day when people can follow their own hearts and minds and not fall into a locked mechanical walk wherein they follow everyone else.

One last comment about this poll Caneadea--you give final results but no other information. Important information such as how many people took part, where the questioning was done, age brackets, gender, etc. etc.

 

[KinkGuy]

Sadly, most of the Republicans and far right neo-nuts....do prove your theory of a "herd mentality."