The UK General Election Poll

[tomthelad91]

I doubt the SNP would ever enter into a Conservative coalition. The Conservatives are against Devolution, in favour of reforming the barnett formula, against electoral reform. All things the SNP hold very dear to them. To a lesser extent with Plaid.

I think a Lab-Lib coalition isn't as unlikely as you're writing it off as.
But don't yet rule out a Labour minority government.
I really think any chance of a Tory Majority is now gone, thankfully, Cameron's lies have finally been exposed.

hung parliament here we come

 

[Jason]

I shall be voting Lib Dem.
Not only because I agree with their policies, but because Labour need to be punished yet I will never ever vote CONservative.

Labour stand for nothing now, thanks to Blair. They invaded Iraq and Afghanistan illegally and were never really punished for it.
I hope Labour lose, they go away, sort them selves out, move back slightly to the left and get a real leader in charge to unite the party then I'll vote for them next time round.

Sense in what you say - except if lots of people act in this way the result will be Gordon Brown firmly back in Downing Street and Lab the most powerful show in town until the next election.

 

[tomthelad91]

The silly situation is that if people vote for a hung parliament they are voting for a stitch up that no-one has voted for. For example does anyone of any party like the idea of a Con+Darlingite Lab government?

The real problem is that the markets will move against a UK without a strong government. They won't be polite and hang around to see if it might work. In fact they will see to it that it won't work.

If really pushed I think right now the most likely outcome is hung parliament with a try at a Lib-Lab pact, loss of AAA credit rating, sterling crisis, and in no time a slump into no viable government and another election.

The most dangerous view floating around right now is that a hung parliament could work and would even be a good thing. The structures of the Westminster parliament were deliberately set up to make a hung parliament unworkable so that the UK has a strong government.

I wasn't aware David Cameron was on LPSG under an Alias.

What utter crap. Typical Labour-Tory bollocks. Vote for us or your vote's wasted. Don't vote for real change, vote for us!

A coalition government won't signal the end of this country - a Tory government would. The amount of cuts to the NHS they would make would cause riots on the streets unseen since Poll Tax.

The tories want to fuck you over for everything they can - beat them too it on May 6th.

 

[swordfishME]

Ok it seems the polls indicate that Labor will be third behind the tories and the lib democrats. If Labour and Libs agree to a coalition and libs have more seats how in the world is Clegg going to let Brown continue on? One the other side I don't see Cameron wanting to compromise with anyone let alone Clegg

 

[dandelion]

Nothwithstanding the conservatives rhetoric about not working with liberals, ex conservative minister Portillo the other day suggested that if they werent getting ready a barganing position, they ought to be. At the moment theyre trying to bluff out the electorate and claim the libs are dangerous socialists, but the reality is all three are centrist parties. To say now that they could work with them is to admit that the parties are not so far apart, which is why they wont. But...

 

[798686]

Great article in today's Times on the negative implications of being in the euro.

The Lib Dem's commitment to the single currency, plus their stance on the nuclear deterrent, and their relative inexperience are the major reasons I wouldn't vote for them at present. I'm also not convinced their sums add up in terms of their economic plans.

Clegg's past as an MEP, plus employee of Leon Brittan whilst Commissioner, lead me to believe his attitude towards Europe wouldn't be entirely in the UK's best interests.

 

[gingernuts]

I think governments should be chosen on dick size and tit size.

 

[B_crackoff]

Ok it seems the polls indicate that Labor will be third behind the tories and the lib democrats. If Labour and Libs agree to a coalition and libs have more seats how in the world is Clegg going to let Brown continue on? One the other side I don't see Cameron wanting to compromise with anyone let alone Clegg

It's a 1st past the post system. Con 32, Lab 28, Ld 32 would probably leave Labour 272 just ahead of the Tories on about 235 seats with the Lib Dems on 110 ish.

Lib Dem majority would happen at about 42 %, Conservative at 39%, & Labour at 33%.

The consituencies are stacked in favour of Labour.

Hung Parliament is very likely. It would take something extreme to change it, though we'll see with the debates. It's a shame that they didn't throw in candidates from other parties in each one.

 

[798686]

I think governments should be chosen on dick size and tit size.

LOL! Hung parliament?

 

[D_Andreas Sukov]

Ill be begrudgingly voting Labour in a Lib Dem stronghold. The Greens have the most impressive Manifesto ive seen bar the TUSC candidates but there isnt one running here.

 

[798686]

Clegg's stance on the expenses scandal is quite interesting. He's vowed to give back to the taxpayer any profit he makes on his 2nd home - plus to put a stop to MPs being involved in the lucrative property business via their tax-payer funded 2nd homes.

Maybe the state owning as well as funding their second homes would be a good idea?

 

[Drifterwood]

I won't be in the UK and haven't organised a postal vote, not that it would make any difference where I live.

If I were, I would vote for an independent or the Loonies as I don't like the whole losing your deposit system.

 

[gingernuts]

I think the winner should be the one whose wife manages to suck me off the quickest

 

[D_Tully Tunnelrat]

Well that would certain give new meaning to the phrase "who's ahead in the poles?"

 

[dandelion]

Great article in today's Times on the negative implications of being in the euro.

interesting to see it says Britain (under labour) has done better than Germany at withstanding the recession. Goes on to say Brown/Darling have had the correct policies to expedite Britains recovery. Suggests that to attack the libs on their euro policy, it would be necessary to admit that Brown has done well.

The Lib Dem's commitment to the single currency,

I would have thought you might be more impressed by their commitment not to pass any legislation deepening our commitment to the EU without having a referrendum. Or do you think there would be public support for joining the euro if it was put to the test? I would remind you that every step in our entering europe has been done either by conservatives or labour, whatever they say officially and both parties reserve the right to go further without asking the people what they think.

plus their stance on the nuclear deterrent,

I remember this from last time, when Polaris was replaced by Trident. Sheer waste of money? The UK nuclear weapon, not to mention the UK nuclear power program which was always mixed up with nuclear development work and the 'acceptable' face of fuel enrichment, has always been exceedingly costly and as much a matter of national pride as practicality. I suppose the best thing which came out of the nuclear program was the breaking of union power, because they couldnt shut down the nuclear power stations. But nowadays we simply buy our nuclear weapons from the US, so not much industrial benefit as a by-product. Come to that, we are probably planning to buy new power stations from abroad.

and their relative inexperience

The conservatives havnt done much governing lately. Are they planning to behave in government the same way they did last time, which got them kicked out?

I'm also not convinced their sums add up in terms of their economic plans.

Whose do?

Clegg's past as an MEP, plus employee of Leon Brittan whilst Commissioner, lead me to believe his attitude towards Europe wouldn't be entirely in the UK's best interests.

Depends if your pro or anti EU. But I would have thought whichever side you were on, understanding your enemy from the inside would be a benefit.

 

[Jason]

Kenneth Clarke has stated that if there is not a majority government there is a high probability of the markets moving against the UK, a sterling crisis, and the IMF called in. It seems to me that there are two possibilities:

1) This is not correct.
2) This is correct.

The response from Lab and Lib has of course been that it is not correct and that Clarke is scaremongering and trying to frighten people. The political rhetoric is pretty obvious.

But fundamentally this isn't a political issue at all - it is an economic issue around market confidence. It should be possible to debate this issue solely in economic terms.

Right now we have the FT screaming from every page that this is precisely what will happen. We have leaks from the credit ratings agencies that they have postponed their next announcement until after the election and that if there is a hung parliament they will downgrade. And we have basic economics. The UK debt is only borderline sustainable - the least uncertainty about the UK's determination to tackle the defecit and we go under. The currency speculators are sensing a feeding frenzy - there's some interesting chatter out there. The Euro is under threat, and if the UK elects a hung parliament so too is sterling.

Everything I can see in the financial press both printed and on-line is that Kenneth Clarke is correct. The problem (it seems to me) is that the majority of the electorate is unable to understand the financial press. It is much easier and much more comfortable to say that Ken Clarke is lying than to accept the economic reality.

 

[D_Tully Tunnelrat]

Great article in today's Times on the negative implications of being in the euro.

That is a good article, and probably offers great political fodder for both Brown and Cameron. I have no idea all of what Brown, or for that matter Labour did, or did not do well, over the last 13 years, but solely for the fact that the UK is not in Greece's fiscal predicament, should give Brown some credibility for sticking with him, and the Labour economic programme. Does anyone know the actual figures, not the rhetorical ones, for all 3 candidates budgets?

 

[Jason]

Does anyone know the actual figures, not the rhetorical ones, for all 3 candidates budgets?

They are not available.

No party that is not in government has access to the figures they need to formulate a budget. The Conservatives reckon that (if elected) they would come up with a budget in 50 days, which is fast. Lib Dems managed to put an appendix of figures on their manifesto, but it is not a budget.

All we have is an indication of direction. Labour has indicated that it would keep public spending high funded by more borrowing and an increase in National Insurance (a tax on income). If elected with a majority they may possibly abandon this and actually make some required cuts. Conservatives have stated that they want to make an early start on reducing the defecit. The pundits believe this would be by altering the state benefit system to reduce total benefit expenditure, and an increase in VAT (a sales tax). Lib Dems seem in favour of the Labour idea of keeping borrowing and spending.

In the event of a hung parliament there is no expectation of unpopular decisions being pushed through. Rather we will have more spending (the political rhetoric is no nasty Tory cuts) which will result in no reduction in the defecit. Because the Conservatives will not go along with more spending they really cannot do a deal with Lib Dems, so a hung parliament is a Lib-Lab parliament with more spending and borrowing. The markets are giving due warning. But the lemmings seem to be heading for the cliff confident that the oh so nice Mr Clegg with the nice smile will make everything right.

 

[D_Relentless Original]

I am interested in saving and keeping public services, most of my public services departments are being cut out or out sourced to tender by cheap agencies on 3 year contracts and staff teams tuped out.

Which party if any has views and commitment (if any) to keep public services public?

 

[Jason]

The Conservatives have stated that they are committed to the NHS and have made positive noises about public services. With a stable economy they can deliver.

Labour and Liberal have both stated they are committed to public services (pretty much the same SNP, PC, Green). The problem is neither can deliver. Ken Clarke's warning that a hung parliament will lead to the IMF being called in is surely correct. The IMF will impose an austerity budget and public services will be very badly hit.