This Is Why We Need Andrew Yang

wallyj84

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Perados

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City deals blow to automation plan at the Port of L.A. The robots could still be coming

The steamship line Maersk wants to automate some jobs at their Los Angeles facility. The local government tried to stop it by overruling a permit, but Maersk is going to go ahead with their automation plan anyway.

This is only going to get worse as time goes on. How do you think we should deal with the threat of automation?
Automation has to come...
Just have a look at those countries who haven't done the industrialisation. China, Korea, Taiwan and most asian nations lived in poverty most time of the 20th century. Japan is the opposite example. They managed the industrialisation very early and became one of the most wealthy nations during the 20th century.
African nations haven't industrialized and belong to the poorest nations.



To solve problems that show up with a technological development/change/jump we should divide the work under the people just like we did 100 years ago.
In the first 30 years of the 20th century people worked 12 hours a day, 6 days a week and had a very small outcome. Most of the profits moved the the investors.
This changed after the 2. WW. People worked only 8 hours, 5 days a week and our income has increased.

Now, with the new technologies we face similar problems as 100 years ago. We have a relatively declining income of workers, while the profit of investors increase.

The solution is simple. We only work 3 days and 4 hours a day... the price will be more flexibility - some work will require that you start at maybe 11pm and stop at 3am...
At the same time the income of every worker will have to increase.

China will have to do the same to guarantee prosperity to all it's people. So, no more imbalance, if we manage to keep up with china.
 

wallyj84

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Automation has to come...
Just have a look at those countries who haven't done the industrialisation. China, Korea, Taiwan and most asian nations lived in poverty most time of the 20th century. Japan is the opposite example. They managed the industrialisation very early and became one of the most wealthy nations during the 20th century.
African nations haven't industrialized and belong to the poorest nations.



To solve problems that show up with a technological development/change/jump we should divide the work under the people just like we did 100 years ago.
In the first 30 years of the 20th century people worked 12 hours a day, 6 days a week and had a very small outcome. Most of the profits moved the the investors.
This changed after the 2. WW. People worked only 8 hours, 5 days a week and our income has increased.

Now, with the new technologies we face similar problems as 100 years ago. We have a relatively declining income of workers, while the profit of investors increase.

The solution is simple. We only work 3 days and 4 hours a day... the price will be more flexibility - some work will require that you start at maybe 11pm and stop at 3am...
At the same time the income of every worker will have to increase.

China will have to do the same to guarantee prosperity to all it's people. So, no more imbalance, if we manage to keep up with china.

But how will you get people to agree to working like that? There will be a lot of people who will start working two jobs just because they have the time to and I'm not sure if companies will be keen on that idea.
 

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But how will you get people to agree to working like that? There will be a lot of people who will start working two jobs just because they have the time to and I'm not sure if companies will be keen on that idea.
In Germany you already have to ask your employer if you can have a second job...
And I doubt too many would take a second job, if they get well paid in their first one.

Currently many people have two or three jobs but still is the unemployment rate below 5% in the USA (I know the flaws of the statistics, but anyway). Who says it wouldn't be like this after the upcoming technological revolution?

Serious, if my employer offers me to work 4 hours a day but get the same payment, I would agree and find a way to fill my free time.
 

wallyj84

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In Germany you already have to ask your employer if you can have a second job...
And I doubt too many would take a second job, if they get well paid in their first one.

Currently many people have two or three jobs but still is the unemployment rate below 5% in the USA (I know the flaws of the statistics, but anyway). Who says it wouldn't be like this after the upcoming technological revolution?

Serious, if my employer offers me to work 4 hours a day but get the same payment, I would agree and find a way to fill my free time.

The unemployment rate is flawed and innacurate. But I think you already know that. The real unemployment rate is much higher.

I just don't think anyone would go for that idea. What about salaried employees? What about jobs that require someone to be in a physical location for several hours? Will they be paid double? That might be thinking too far ahead.
 

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If you're going to create an economy where people have more free time, it can't come as a surprise that a segment of the new economy will be people with more than one job - especially people who have been used to long hours as part of their current job. You can hardly tell people that second jobs or income streams are banned.
 
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The unemployment rate is flawed and innacurate. But I think you already know that. The real unemployment rate is much higher.

I just don't think anyone would go for that idea. What about salaried employees? What about jobs that require someone to be in a physical location for several hours? Will they be paid double? That might be thinking too far ahead.
Physical location doesn't matter... you will have a new worker every 4 hours, just like you have them every 8 hours right now.



Ok, here another solution...
We use UBI. With the new productivity we might be able to pay everyone $3000 per month.
If you work, or not is no longer important. You will do they work you like, or none. This will create the situation that unpopular work will be paid very high, popular work lower.
This might create the situation that we will see even more automatization and soon only a few will work, but no one has to. Unpopular work will be gone totally.
 
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It’s here....

When Conor Sprouls, a customer service representative in the call center of the insurance giant MetLife talks to a customer over the phone, he keeps one eye on the bottom-right corner of his screen. There, in a little blue box, A.I. tells him how he’s doing.

Talking too fast? The program flashes an icon of a speedometer, indicating that he should slow down.

Sound sleepy? The software displays an “energy cue,” with a picture of a coffee cup.

Not empathetic enough? A heart icon pops up.

A Machine May Not Take Your Job, but One Could Become Your Boss

IBM has used Watson, its A.I. platform, during employee reviews to predict future performance and claims it has a 96 percent accuracy rate.​
 

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If you're going to create an economy where people have more free time, it can't come as a surprise that a segment of the new economy will be people with more than one job - especially people who have been used to long hours as part of their current job. You can hardly tell people that second jobs or income streams are banned.
No one says it has to be banned...
But who says so many people will do a second job?
Like I said, we had a similar situation 100 years ago. Most people didn't searched for a second job as they got more free time and higher payments.

It might sound crazy, but people enjoyed their free time. They took holidays, developed hobbies and spend trillions for it. A whole new industry developed.

Maybe the family will become more important. You will have BOTH parents who care for their children - there is no longer an economical need to put your children in Kindergarten. You only would do it if you see a real benefit.
Children could start to care for their aged parents - no more retirement centres. Maybe they will do more volunteer work and fight even the last peace of poverty and inequality.




Just think about what you could do with $10,000 per month and annual holidays of 2 month ;)
 

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But that would double the employee expenses for companies. Donyou really think employers will go for that?
Not in total...
If I pay one guy $40 per hour for 8 hours isn't much of a difference to paying two guys $40 per hour for 4 hours each - the cost increase might be seen by the insurance costs or taxation, but that's mainly it.

And after the war labour unions forced companies to accept such a cost increase once - why not a second time? As long as it happens in every part of the developed world, companies don't have a chance to refuse it.
 

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It’s here....

When Conor Sprouls, a customer service representative in the call center of the insurance giant MetLife talks to a customer over the phone, he keeps one eye on the bottom-right corner of his screen. There, in a little blue box, A.I. tells him how he’s doing.

Talking too fast? The program flashes an icon of a speedometer, indicating that he should slow down.

Sound sleepy? The software displays an “energy cue,” with a picture of a coffee cup.

Not empathetic enough? A heart icon pops up.

A Machine May Not Take Your Job, but One Could Become Your Boss

IBM has used Watson, its A.I. platform, during employee reviews to predict future performance and claims it has a 96 percent accuracy rate.​
The problem is that we don't understand these kind of algorithms. We can't explain how these results got created and therefore we simply have to accept them - this gets us in a very uncomfortable situation.
 

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No one says it has to be banned...
But who says so many people will do a second job?
Like I said, we had a similar situation 100 years ago. Most people didn't searched for a second job as they got more free time and higher payments.

It might sound crazy, but people enjoyed their free time. They took holidays, developed hobbies and spend trillions for it. A whole new industry developed.

Maybe the family will become more important. You will have BOTH parents who care for their children - there is no longer an economical need to put your children in Kindergarten. You only would do it if you see a real benefit.
Children could start to care for their aged parents - no more retirement centres. Maybe they will do more volunteer work and fight even the last peace of poverty and inequality.




Just think about what you could do with $10,000 per month and annual holidays of 2 month ;)

I'm retired and enjoy my free time, but looking back when I was working I often worked many hours a week when I was working on commission and when I had salaried jobs I enjoyed working a second job because it put me ahead financially . I did not always need overtime or an extra salary, but it let me do more with my life - travel, attend a lot of ball games in major league parks, invest and save. I can see families suddenly given extra time wanting to do that was well. Yes, a lot of people will be grateful for the time off. but others will see it as an opportunity to dig ahead - especially if they and their families have been on the edge financially for a long time.

The entire concept will be a hard sell to working people, it really will. The same way Obamacare was a very hard sell to people who desperately needed insurance. Automation is happening really fast, and it cannot be stopped, but these ideas represent a societal change that Americans will need many years to adjust to, and they will fight it every step of the way.

Have you seen the asshole they put in the White House lately. I rest my case.
 
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wallyj84

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It’s here....

When Conor Sprouls, a customer service representative in the call center of the insurance giant MetLife talks to a customer over the phone, he keeps one eye on the bottom-right corner of his screen. There, in a little blue box, A.I. tells him how he’s doing.

Talking too fast? The program flashes an icon of a speedometer, indicating that he should slow down.

Sound sleepy? The software displays an “energy cue,” with a picture of a coffee cup.

Not empathetic enough? A heart icon pops up.

A Machine May Not Take Your Job, but One Could Become Your Boss

IBM has used Watson, its A.I. platform, during employee reviews to predict future performance and claims it has a 96 percent accuracy rate.​

They're going to take our manager's job first then they'll replace us.

Why is Andrew Yang the only one talking about this automation problem? I honestly don't get it. Even other progressives seem like they want to ignore or act like it won't be problem. I remember when John Oliver had a bit about automation on his show and they just acted like it wasn't a big deal. Is this just a case of massive delusion?
 
D

deleted15807

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The problem is that we don't understand these kind of algorithms. We can't explain how these results got created and therefore we simply have to accept them - this gets us in a very uncomfortable situation.

You’re referring to the branch of AI called machine learning. Indeed we may not know with 100% certainty. Now imagine putting in the face of terrorist into an AI drone and tell it to seek and destroy no human input required. Find that face and shoot to kill! Or even find a president of a regime we want “regime change”.
 

wallyj84

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Not in total...
If I pay one guy $40 per hour for 8 hours isn't much of a difference to paying two guys $40 per hour for 4 hours each - the cost increase might be seen by the insurance costs or taxation, but that's mainly it.

And after the war labour unions forced companies to accept such a cost increase once - why not a second time? As long as it happens in every part of the developed world, companies don't have a chance to refuse it.

Wait, I thought everyone was going to make the same amount of money as before? What you're proposing would basically cut everyone's income in half.
 

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I'm retired and enjoy my free time, but looking back when I was working I often worked many hours a week when I was working on commission and when I had salaried jobs I enjoyed working a second job because it put me ahead financially . I did not always need overtime or an extra salary, but it let me do more with my life - travel, attend a lot of ball games in major league parks, invest and save. I can see families suddenly given extra time wanting to do that was well. Yes, a lot of people will be grateful for the time off. but others will see it as an opportunity to dig ahead - especially if they and their families have been on the edge financially for a long time.
and they are free to do so... but I doubt it will be as many as they would create a problem. Even more so if everyone earns more.
The entire concept will be a hard sell to working people, it really will. The same way Obamacare was a very hard sell to people who desperately needed insurance. Automation is happening really fast, and it cannot be stopped, but these ideas represent a societal change that Americans will need many years to adjust to, and they will fight it every step of the way.
there aren't many options to deal with the changes...
Either everyone will work less, or many will be unemployed - even under the prediction that we will develop more industries and new kind of jobs
Have you seen the asshole they put in the White House lately. I rest my case.
It's not a question of whether you like it or not, but of eat or die...
 

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You’re referring to the branch of AI called machine learning. Indeed we may not know with 100% certainty. Now imagine putting in the face of terrorist into an AI drone and tell it to seek and destroy no human input required. Find that face and shoot to kill! Or even find a president of a regime we want “regime change”.
No, not only machine learning... but AI in general. The case you describe counts to it as well and is the most worrying part.

We will have machines who tell us what to do, what would be the best option and we have no clue how exactly the machine calculates it. Currently it looks like we will have to accept it like a god's judgement.

We know how to write logarithmics to calculate what ever we like, but as soon as it calculates we have not really a clue what happens.
The next step would be to develop a really REAL quantum computer. In this case we would be able to calculate even more complex systems and would understand even less of the process.
 

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My head is beginning to hurt. This is beginning to go over my head. What I see is a group of administrators will design these computers. Then the rest of us will have to mind what the computers tell us to do.

This post industrial world will be so different. Automation will greatly affect us. Automation already allows for vacuum cleaners to vacuum the floor without us doing any of the work is just one example of robots that can be programed to do most of the house work. The question is how much would one cost.

When the Industrial Revolution hit Europe and then the United States, it required a completely new paradigm of thought. On the farm there were no hourly wages. People were hired to do a job however long that would be. Much of trade was done in the barter system. Farmer A would trade so many bushels of corn for so many bushels of potatoes, etc.

The post Industrial world will be so different from what we now know that it is difficult for us to comprehend all the manifestations that the post industrial age will bring. Some of us won't live to see the post Industrial Age come into its maturity. It is only in its infancy now. Imagine what it will be when full grown. I wish I could really comprehend the changes it will bring.
 
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The buy in for successful automation is the same logic as trickle down economics. It is faulty in that when "robots" or "automation" replace workers, there is no big windfall to the workforce. The corporations or industry increase profits, for owners and shareholders. Workers meanwhile lose jobs. It also has second and third order impacts on the local economy as well as workers migrate to new jobs the local economy gets tanked as robots, don't eat, shop, have families or buy homes.