Is it time for a checkpoint here? I really haven't seen a disaster yet unless I tune into Faux News. In fact if you Google 'stimulus package' nothing but sunshine. I guess those rain clouds must be somewhere on the horizon. Indeed the bad news seems to be turning around ever so slowly. Mr. Market seems to be very happy.
so i guess you missed the jobs report, today then? Typical...considering you are across the pond.
and i guess you missed the fact that when you google "Stimulus package" it is hardly "nothing but sunshine"
in fact it is nothing much of anything at all in the first page of 100 google results that have anything to do with the stimulus effects...merely it is a diescription of the facets of it, news of it passing, etc. etc...
nice lie
but i guess across the pond you have not figured out that only 15 billion of the stimulus funds have been given out most of it in the last week of April...
and the only reason that the job loss numbers today came in lower (539,000) was because 72,000 *TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT JOBS RELATED TO THE US CENSUS 2010* were "created" and subtracted from the over 610,000 job losses before hand...hardly "stimulating" now is it?
Then again since i am on your ignore list, thankfully, you will never have to see this post, and thus, never have to see an opposing viewpoint.
talk about ignorance as bliss.
as for you not seeing a "disaster" yet here...i guess you must have missed the 1.17 trillion dollar deficit, huh? Yeah...one could see how you might miss something small like that.
The budget deficit has worsened because of the recession and we have taken in lower tax receipts, the economy is not growing as fast as Obama's budget envisioned, and tax receipts are lower than expected.
CBO is projecting that deficits are to continue at historically high levels.
we have a 3.4-5 trillion dollar budget, with no spending cuts of any importance.
the only reasons for optimism was because the *FED*...not Obama...the *FED* pumped hundreds of billions into the system
so tell me this Sargon...how is it that the stimulus plan has helped all this, when as of 10 days ago, only 14-15 Billion of it had been distributed? Of that 15 billion, almost all of it (14.2) was to assist the States in handling rising medicaid costs...
hardly "stimulus" in the sense you meant it, eh?
so far, of the 499 billion earmarked for it, only 15 billion, as of April 28th, had been distributed, as stated, to states for medicaid coverage...the other 288 billion is in the form of *TAX CUTS*.
only about 1.8% of the total stimulus money has been spent since passage over 11 weeks ago and most tthrough the department of health and human services
and let's look at more
- 1st quarter GDP down 6.1% from 6.3% in December 08
- unemployment was at 8.5% in March...it has gone up, to 8.9% in April.
- The number of long-term unemployed workers (27 weeks+) increased 498,000 to 3.7 million, nearly 3x the start of the recession.
- job cuts continue to be widespread *across all major private sector industries except healthcare*
- Bernanke said this week that we will continue to see considerable job losses and elevated unemployment.
- of course, we should listen to Sargon, and not Warren Buffet, who said last week that "hes seen no indication of recovery from the real estate slump that helped cause the U.S. recession"
Theres no signs of any real bounce at all in anything to do with housing, retailing, all that sort of thing, You never know for sure, even if theres a leveling off, which way the next move will be.
of course, Buffet is also warning about inflation in the near term horizon, with all the bailouts, and extra liquidity in the system, which should be wonderful,
"Many are interpreting the April employment report as yet another sign that the economy is 'stabilizing,' but the more accurate interpretation of these signs is that the economy's pace of contraction is slowing, which is not quite the same as stability and s still a long way from the economy actually improving." Richard Moody, chief economist at Forward Capital
"...it still looks like the unemployment rate will move above 10 percent in coming months which will exacerbate the credit losses confronting the financial sector. " Ted Wiesman and David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley Research
as for "Mr. Market being happy"...just why do you think that is? Because people like me, who you decry, who trade, invest, manage funds etc. are bargain hunting.
when everyone in the country is panicking and hoarding cash(sound familiar from February and March?) smart people in the market know it is time to start buying...as such, predictably, as insitutional investors begin buying, prices begin rising...people gain confidence...then the small investors and dumb money start buying in to the next bubble, pushing the prices up, will the smart money sells into strength...then, the bottom falls out again, the dummies hold the bag, and the smart money is already out.
simple market strategy...buy on weakness, sell into strength.
the small investors are not coming back, because they have been virtually wiped out....but they will eventually, after they fear not getting in on the "rally", which they have already missed most of, but do not want to miss more of...
i have been using the last few weeks to pick up valuable stocks at rock bottom prices. because people like me are fishing for the bottom, does not mean that things are turning around in "Mr. Market" as if anyone in the know actually calls it that
we are making profits off the limited enthusiasm for certain sectors, and rally buying by folks picking up bargains...
all those evil hedge funds, brokers, traders and managers who folks like you decry, are the ones doing the buying, buoying the market...not the average investor who buys 5 shares of stock at a time.
Large investors are buying, and pushing the rally, for no other reason then the fear that the positive bubble will burst, and to miss out on the bottom will eliminate the chances for early gains this year for many funds in what will be a very difficult year.
as of May 8, the stimulus has now distributed 28 billion.
-15 billion to Health and Human Services, 14.8 billion in grants to the states to assist with medicare costs
-12 billion to the Department of LAbor, 11.5 billion of it for unemployment benefits.
- the other "Big" distributions, were 800 million for food stamps, and 480 million for federal "student aid" and 230 million for Public housing for american indians.
so show me which of those are the "stimulus".
27 billion in unemployment benefits and grants to the states for medicaid costs is hardly stimulus, and have nothing to do with any even slightly improved numbers
- I guess you also missed the stress tests? Yeah...there is a bit of a problem, that if the recession worsens at all, 10 of the 19 largest banks, mostly involving Wells Fargo and BofA, would need *ANOTHER* 75 billion to cover their debts...
the financial sector is one down quarter away, from falling into a chasm
the most interesting thing i find...is that roughly 1/3rd of the stimulus is in the form of certain tax cuts...
it must be sort of strange for someone like you, who spends most of his time decrying tax cuts as having failed in the past, from Bush, to Reagan etc. etc...to now suggest that these will be "stimulative".
must really suck to have to twist your belief system about tax cuts to fit your biased narrative.
and i guess you missed the great news from Fannie Mae, huh? Yeah, they need another 19 billion in aid
so that brings Fannie and Freddie up to 80 billion in aid, and Fannie just posted a 23 billion dollar quarterly loss...
"there is significant uncertainty as to our long-term financial sustainability." Even more government aid, "may not be sufficient to keep us in a solvent condition."
Fannie Mae has over 140 billion in delinquent loans on its books...they also expect home prices to decline further anywhere between 4%-17%
fannie and freddie own or guarantee around 30-31 million home loans whose value is roughly $5.5 trillion...or roughly half of all U.S home mortgages.
so you factor in what a decline of even the minimum they state (4%) would have effectwise on the markets...
but hey, i am sure all that stimulus money spent on medicaid will help that, right?
and i am sure it will help in the coming commercial real estate crash, which is the next thing to go.
delinquency rate in MArch was at 1.8%, which is double from septmeber, and that is on roughly $700 billion in securitized loans backed by office buildings, hotels, stores, investment properties etc it is slightly lower then the highest rate during the CE downturn earlier in 2001-2003
and of course, let's not forget credit card debts, and Option ARMS wavs of foreclosures to come.
typical bullshit from sargon the great, obnoxious overseas critic.
but hey...you won't have to read this anyway...because why see anything other than what you want to see?