Too bad for Al

JustAsking

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Isn't that basically what your scientist have done?
The only thing I'm saying is,any disagreement on this subject is not tolerated.exactly the same at colleges when conservative speakers are shouted down and not allowed to speak.
Ed,
Its really a shame that somehow GW has become a political issue, because after so many years of practice, there are some groups who have become very effective at dishonestly playing to the feelings of most Americans on issues where they want to effect public policy.

I admire your individualism and your willingness to not accept anything without questioning it. It turns out that scientists are very much more like you than not. They are cranky, opinionated, strong-willed individualists who don't take anything for granted without investigating it themselves.

I know this because I have a degree in Physics and one in Elect. Engineering and I put myself through school repairing research instruments and building experimental apparatus for hundreds of scientists at three different universities. I worked for chemists, physicists, and biologists of all kinds and their graduate students.

In college, we were taught to analyze everything from first principles and take nothing for granted except very well established theories that have produced useful results for hundreds of years. But even with those theories, we were taught that the real frontier of science, where you will find the most interesting problems are those little loose threads that other scientists might be ignoring around those theories.

From my education and from my experience I can tell you that scientists come to work everyday with it mind that they are going to find that overlooked loose thread, do a lot of experiments around it and end up publishing new and interesting findings, especially if it challenges the established theories. You don't win Nobel Prizes by proving that what people currently believe is true. You win them by proving that you actually know something better.

But even so, whatever you find and whatever you prove, it is worth nothing unless you work it up for publication to a professional scientific journal. In the article you have to show your work every step of the way and demonstrate why your revolutionary idea is correct. On doing that, many other scientists in the field will pounce on it and try to shoot it down, because any good idea has to be weeded out from all the bogus ones. If you are really on to something, though, other scientists will set up similar experiments and try to duplicate it and even improve on it.

When this happens, no matter how radical your idea is (as long as it is carefully laid out, and your conclusions are justified), your idea will suddenly be the thing that the whole community is working on. If it holds water, it will gain critical mass and soon dominate the field for a while. If it turns out that others can reproduce your results, and it turns out that the math is good, etc you are on your way to fame and lots more grants for your research institute or your university.

So keep that in mind how all this works, and compare it to what you were suggesting. That somehow all around the world scientists from all walks of life, from all different cultures, and from all different political regimes make up the global community of professional climatologists. What you are suggesting is that each one of them, for reasons unknown, wake up every morning, look at themselves in the mirror, and say to themselves in whatever language they speak, that they are going to go to work today and protect a lie.

If you thought it was a "liberal" agenda, for example, you would have to explain how American liberals have figured out how to influence the professional opinion of those scientists all around the world. Its not just Al Gore and a few guys on the take who have formed the scientific opinion, its people all around the world who have trained all their lives to be able to analyze and question anything anyone says about the climate. If GW scientists were being bought off by someone, who do you think has the deeper pockets, the oil companies or the huge and powerful windpower lobby? I think you see my point.

Those who want to affect public policy on science by denying the mainstream scientific consensus don't actually do research nor do the submit papers to the professional journals. What they do is publish stuff in the popular press to people who are not equipped to analyze it. And it is a common tactic to say that the entrenched scientific community is rejecting their ideas due to some hidden agenda. With the

The Polar caps on Mars are erroding,Too many SUV's up there?
This is a good example, though. There are a few guys who are making claims about Mars' and Earth's climate who are legitimate scientists. They are publishing their papers just fine in the professional journals, but their work is not quite standing up to careful analysis. This is not unsual for science. This is a daily kind of thing. Hit the links I put in this paragraph and see how climatologists and space scientists are all over the Mars polar cap changes. Don't let anyone talk you into thinking that all this information is being somehow suppressed or something.
 
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Mr Ed in Mass

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Hi Justasking,
Thank you very much for your informative response.We hear so much from so many sources,it's hard for the layman to really know who to believe.Your answer makes great sense to me and I'm glad you took the time to explain it to me.
 

JustAsking

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Hi Justasking,
Thank you very much for your informative response.We hear so much from so many sources,it's hard for the layman to really know who to believe.Your answer makes great sense to me and I'm glad you took the time to explain it to me.
No problem, Ed. Thanks for taking the time to read it. I guess you can see by my lengthy response that it is a hot topic of mine. There are a lot of people trying to manipulate public opinion on a number of important issues (GW, Evolution/Creationism, HIV as a cause of AIDS, etc). They are able to do this easily because we have done a bad job with science literacy.

I think we usually teach the details of science pretty well, but we don't teach students how science itself works and how scientific theories come to be accepted.

Its important because we are moving faster and faster into a world affected by science and technology. The decisions we make at a national level will be strategic to our success, and maybe even to our survival.

Again, thanks for listening.
 

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Hi Justasking,
Thank you very much for your informative response.We hear so much from so many sources,it's hard for the layman to really know who to believe.Your answer makes great sense to me and I'm glad you took the time to explain it to me.

I thank JA too. *tips hat*

He and I disagee more often than not on political and social issues but he always states his case persuasively. I love him for that.

I'm pretty sure it would suck to face him in a debate.
 

Mem

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Global Warming does not cause Hurricanes, but will make them worse when they do get here. (the warmer ocean temps will feed the storm) Hurricanes happen in a cycle and a few years are bad and a few years are good.
 

SpeedoGuy

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...it's hard for the layman to really know who to believe.

I think you are wise to be skeptical if your skepticism leads to objective inquisitiveness on a topic such as this. I admire that. But skepticism just for skepticism's sake is not much of a virtue in my eyes.

One other thing to remember about science and evidence: Wherever the majority of scientific evidence exists, there will go the majority of scientists (from James Trefil's: Meditations at 10,000 feet: A scientist in the Mountains)
 

JustAsking

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I thank JA too. *tips hat*

He and I disagee more often than not on political and social issues but he always states his case persuasively. I love him for that.

I'm pretty sure it would suck to face him in a debate.
You do know how to stir things up though, don't you?

My problem is with brevity. I can't seem to make my point in a few words like others do around here. I apologize for all the bandwith I use up.
 

odd_fish_9

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If GW scientists were being bought off by someone, who do you think has the deeper pockets, the oil companies or the huge and powerful windpower lobby?
Like maybe the Nobel Peace Prize committee. That seems to have more money than it knows what to do with.
 

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Ever notice how it's impossible for a thread like this to stay on the science behind climate, and not go into the bullshit of politics? This angers me to no end...
 

SteveHd

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As a Floridian I have to say the 2007 hurricane season was wimpy. I'll go so far as to say: I regret bothering to prepare for it. Now I have a pile of canned goods I don't want to eat.
 

JustAsking

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Ever notice how it's impossible for a thread like this to stay on the science behind climate, and not go into the bullshit of politics? This angers me to no end...

This started out as a political discussion. Look at the thread title.

Also, what value would a discussion of the science have?
 

dong20

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As a Floridian I have to say the 2007 hurricane season was wimpy. I'll go so far as to say: I regret bothering to prepare for it. Now I have a pile of canned goods I don't want to eat.

150 people (or more) across Cuba, the Domincan Republic and Haiti may disagree and quite probably resent what they may see as an 'I'm alright jack' attitude. Well, they would had they not been recently killed by a hurricane, and Noel is only a baby.

I know you wrote the above before these events and I'm sure you didn't forget most hurricane fatalities occur other than the US, because they lack the advance warning and rescue facilities the US takes for granted.

I'm sure this was an attempt at humour (backfired a bit IMHO) but if not surely you should be grateful, not regretful, shouldn't you? But don't despair, canned goods last, I'm sure you'll need them eventually.
 
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snoozan

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As a Floridian I have to say the 2007 hurricane season was wimpy. I'll go so far as to say: I regret bothering to prepare for it. Now I have a pile of canned goods I don't want to eat.

It's almost Chistmas, so there will be canned food drives everywhere. Think of it as an opportunity for you to do some charity work.
 

SteveHd

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150 people (or more) across Cuba, the Domincan Republic and Haiti may disagree and quite probably resent what they may see as an 'I'm alright jack' attitude. ...
I was being flippant, of course, and I wasn't trying to be disrespectful to those in the Caribbean. Leading forecasters such as Dr. Gray had forecast a very active season and I prepared according. This is the second year in a row the "experts" forecasted a very active season that fell short.

Back in 1954, hurricane Hazel killed an estimated 400 to 1000 in Haiti. Should we blame "global warming" for that?
I know you wrote the above before these events and I'm sure you didn't forget most hurricane fatalities occur other than the US, ...
It isn't relevant to me whether a fatality is in USA or not. They're equivalent.
... because they lack the advance warning and rescue facilities the US takes for granted.
They lack the "rescue facilities" but I disagree about advanced warnings. The National Hurricane Center provides complete forecasts and technical info to all Caribbean nations, even Cuba. Many fatalities occur because they have nowhere to evacuate to on a small island.
I'm sure this was an attempt at humour ...
It wasn't.
 

Freddie53

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As long as people on both parties are truly grateful that this was not a bad year for hurricanes in America, I can respect the conversation. What I can't accept is someone wishing that the hurricane season had been bad so that it would appear that Al and the Democrats were right. It bothers me just as much if the only reason someone is glad that the hurricane season wasn't bad is so that it will make Al Gore look bad. I would hope that the reason people are glad that the hurricane season was mild has absolutely nothing to do with politics at all.

Please keep in mind that climate and weather are two different things. Weather only means what we are experiencing at a particular place and at only a very specific moment, not day, in time. Where I live in may be windy in the 30's and be calm in the 80's all within a 24 hour period.

To understand climate changes would require decades of research to find trends. And even that is not reliable if all the needed data is not included. And I don't know anyone who can guarantee that all the needed data for every year was included.

To deny that global warming and global cooling is a fact is to ignore history. We know from studying the past that there have been ice ages and tropical periods. At one time, Antarctica was a tropical paradise according to some scientist.

Global warming is a fact. The climate for the past few months does conclude that the earth is getting warmer over all. Why this is happening is still theory. And there are lots of theories out there as to why this happens.

It makes very good sense that how humans treat the earth does impact climate. But just how much humans have done to cause the earth to get warmer is still open to debate.

Personally, I after reading the facts have concluded that we have helped this warming trend along. And I also believe that humans have played a role in the thinning of the ozone layer. But can I prove it to the point that it is a fact? I don't think we are there yet.

We can't do a study of the earth from 1900 to the present with humans her on earth and then do another study from 1900 to the present with humans here to see if there is a climate difference. That is still the only way to prove it one way or the other.

The beliefs of Al Gore about global warming are theory. It so happens that I personally believe that much if not all of this theory is true, it is still a theory.

It always degrades science to present a theory as fact no matter what it is or how much some scientists personally believe the theory is true.