UIK defence cuts

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This is supposed to be an exercise in saving money not buying extras!
Shush! It's a good idea. :wink:

I cant disagree. I looked at a bit of blurb about the carriers and it was talking about 'designed to operate with US forces'. Ye what? we are building ships to act in support of the US navy? No sense there!
Why? We often work in conjunction with them.

Actually...the new carriers were designed to work alongside the French, if I remember rightly. Weren't they building one, and UK two - so there'd always be at least two available for any EU Rapid Reaction type thing?
 

dandelion

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Because the US navy is huge in comparison with the Uk. They do not need UK ship support so it is a pure waste our designing a fleet to work with theirs. If we are spending money on ships they must have some purpose for the UK other than pottering about with the US fleet.
 

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It is increasingly hard to see how we would use aircraft carriers to further UK-specific interests. Of course it is always possible that something unexpected might come up, but actually very hard to think up a scenario that is at all likely. We're not at all likely to have another Falklands War.

Rather IMO we need aircraft carriers to work with the USA and in the end this is the primary region for us going ahead with the acquisition of two which are specifically designed to operate with US forces. This IMO is hugely significant. The UK is making a defence budget decision specifically in order to work with the USA. This says a lot about the nature of the alliance between the UK and the USA. Just as the UK and USA have fought together in Iraq and Afghanistan so the UK is setting out an intent to fight alongside the USA in subsequent conflicts.

I think it is easy to see what the US gets out of it - as well as some degree of military support it helps the perception of the USA globally in that the USA is not acting alone.

It is not as easy to see what the UK gets out of it. Our defence budget is way above that of countries of a comparable size. The UK does not have an obvious enemy, and certainly none in our backyard. Arguably we could forget about aircraft carriers, nuclear weapons, most of our military expenditure. But we're not doing it for fun - rather we must perceive benefits.

In the past there have been secret treaties between the UK and the USA. One that is now known about is the Quadripartite Agreement which lasted from the late 1940s to 1980s (also with Canada, Australia and NZ). I wonder if there is something comparable existing now. The UK is providing services that the USA wants in return for who knows quite what - but it will be something big, worth the billions we are spending.
 

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So, what about the wider cuts? or rather announced cuts?

The City likes then. They are more or less what we expected.

The economic strategy has a decent chance of working - a better chance than anything else. We should all support it.

There are peope who will be hurt by these cuts. There are also some who will benefit from the tough love. The situation where people are out of pocket getting a job rather than claiming benefits has been crazy. And there are even some that will benefit - the thrust of much forthcoming legislation is to wind back some of the red tape on employers. We're looking at half million jobs gone in public sector (plus say half million knock on in private sector) - but also at two million new private sector jobs. That's an extra million in work and generating wealth.
 

dandelion

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He means jobs paying minimum wage which will be taken by latvians. (Things are looking up back home now for polish doctors, so they no longer come here to clean hospital floors)

As to secret treaties with the US. What could the UK possibly be getting in return? They agree not to invade us? I could just about go with the explanation that we have two new carriers because Blair thought it a good idea to buy a couple for the US. Are you suggesting Cameron wants to run carriers for them also? They just have to fly in the planes when they need them?
 

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So, what about the wider cuts? or rather announced cuts?

Seems to be a bit of spirited debate over whether they are a good thing or a bad thing. The economic debate seems to be well balanced over whether government spending cuts automatically cause equal cuts in government revenue. The issue of disincentives to work because of benefits has not been addressed. You cannot solve this by cutting benefit levels but have to do it by increasing pay for low paid workers. No suggestions how the government plans to do this. The simple way is to place the problem into the private sector: increase minimum wage quite a bit. Just like solving the housing problem, all you need to do is grant more planning permissions and the private sector will take care of it.
 
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I don't think Osbourne corrected the anomaly where child benefit is available for a couple with 2 wages below £44k - whereas those with a sole wage above £44k will be ineligible. It sort of penalises the stay at home Mum, but...I'm still in agreement that those earning over £44k shouldn't really be claiming it anyway.

Dandelion's point is good - there isn't incentive to work while basic wages are so low; would be good (but impossible in the current economic climate?) to raise minimum wage. All that seems to be being done at the moment, is reducing benefits so they're even shitter than minimum wage pay. Would provide an incentive to work I guess - but only by making benefits even more intolerable than a low paid job (long-winded explanation, sorry).

I do think the cuts are essential, basically - but whether they'e gone too far, or whether it will stall economic recovery, is hard to tell; and did they have any choice anyway?

Interestingly, the EU has voted to award itself a 7% (I think?) increase in its budget, at a time when it's demanding austerity from the member states. It's also ruled that maternity pay is to increase to 20 weeks FULLY PAID, which will cost the UK a further £2.6bn a year (SMP is currently 90% of full pay for 6 weeks, followed by the lower of £125 or 90% of pay for a further 20 weeks).
 

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The EU will not get a budget increase without all members agreeing, thats how it works. I dont know where we are in budget negotiations now?

I dont know what evidence there might be around the world if a realisic minimum wage has been introduced anywhere as to what happens. The effect of the minimum wage in the Uk was....absolutely nothing. Which suggests it was too low.

I dont know the inns and outs of assessing people and how much it costs. The fundamental principle of non tested benfits for poor people is a sound one. If the benefit does not get taken away as you start to earn then it is not a disincentive to work. Taking the benefit away at a much higher level than the ordinary benefits makes sense looked at like this too. I think the people on 45K moaning they have lost child benefit should take stock that if the law was adjusted fairly they still would not be getting it. The unfairness is some getting it who shouldn't, not the other way about. Osborn revised his figures on how much money this will save sharply upwards, which has been interpreted as meaning he is now including 16-19 year olds which before he did not, on the assumption that separately he was going to announce scrapping of benefits for older children.
 
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The EU will not get a budget increase without all members agreeing, thats how it works. I dont know where we are in budget negotiations now?
It's been voted on by the EU Parliament I think? Still has to be agreed by the member states, though.

The unfairness is some getting it who shouldn't, not the other way about.
Yeh, I agree.

The EU will not get a budget increase without all members agreeing, thats how it works. I dont know where we are in budget negotiations now?

I dont know what evidence there might be around the world if a realisic minimum wage has been introduced anywhere as to what happens. The effect of the minimum wage in the Uk was....absolutely nothing. Which suggests it was too low.

I dont know the inns and outs of assessing people and how much it costs. The fundamental principle of non tested benfits for poor people is a sound one. If the benefit does not get taken away as you start to earn then it is not a disincentive to work. Taking the benefit away at a much higher level than the ordinary benefits makes sense looked at like this too.
Sounds interesting.

I was on Incapacity Benefit for a while - and you're only allowed to earn £20 per week, before your benefits start to be reduced. It's quite complicated (you can do supported work for a certain amount of time - less than 16 hours per week, but I'm not sure how that affects Income Support), but you're penalised pretty quickly once you start even a small amount of part-time work. Also, it's not really flexible enough to allow you to build up after illness gradually, before benefits are removed completely (especially now, as you're passed fit for work if you can do a number of things like, picking up a pound coin, etc - which almost anyone can do, but doesn't mean you're actually well enough to work full or part-time).
 

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How's that, Jase?

The two million new private sector jobs come from the calculations of the OBR, reported for example at George Osborne needs 2m private jobs rise to balance public sector losses | Politics | The Guardian

Even with an anticipated half million cut in public sector jobs and perhaps half a million private sector jobs (linked to the public sector ones) going too we are still left with a gain of 1m jobs. I know there is a view that the OBR's figures are "heroic". Yet they are as near as we are going to get to an independent figure. Even if we get only half the jobs they predict we're at steady levels of employment and a switch of half a million jobs out of the public sector (wealth consumers) into the private sector (wealth creators).
 

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It's been voted on by the EU Parliament I think? Still has to be agreed by the member states, though.

Yes it has just been passed by the EU parliament with the Grand Coalition acting "with a great sense of responsibility" to bring in a "responsible" budget. The increase is 5.9% and it is linked with opening discussions on direct taxation by the European Union within the territories of member ststes (ie and EU VAT additional to the national VAT).

Within the UK context of the biggest expenditure cuts for a very long time the EU budget seems provocative. Additionally the idea of discussion of direct tax levy by the EU is an area which to the UK will be taboo. There are lots of issues for other member states too.

Within the byzantine processes of the EU I hesitate to be dogmatic on what happens next - but I think we start with next week's EU sumit where member states have to agree a response to the EU parliament's budget. I think there are about three weeks for the process. And I think the EU's favourite word (crisis) will feature. If the member states don't agree the budget I think the system is that last year's budget is carried forward for another year.

If anyone wants an example of how out of touch with reality the Eurocrats are then this budget is it. Many EU nations are a step away from sovereign debt default. The UK is leading the way with massive cuts in expenditure. France is crippled with strikes over cuts there. IMO this budget is breathtakingly irresponsible. It is the gravytrain seeking more gravy, insulated from democratic acccountability.
 
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Additionally the idea of discussion of direct tax levy by the EU is an area which to the UK will be taboo. There are lots of issues for other member states too.

If anyone wants an example of how out of touch with reality the Eurocrats are then this budget is it. Many EU nations are a step away from sovereign debt default. The UK is leading the way with massive cuts in expenditure. France is crippled with strikes over cuts there. IMO this budget is breathtakingly irresponsible. It is the gravytrain seeking more gravy, insulated from democratic acccountability.
The proposals for direct EU taxes (in the form of aviation tax, or EU VAT tax, etc) have been denounced by Paris, London and Berlin as inappropriate.

I do think they're out of touch on the budget (as with many other things). I know they have to fund the new EEAS (unfortunately), but a huge budget increase is insensitive to say the least. They're justifying it because 'the EU is a tool to help us out of the crisis'...er, or something. :redface:

Here's the quote (from EUobserver):
"The budget of the EU is not similar to a national budget, it is oriented towards investment and is a tool for fighting the crisis. I hope we will have an open and direct dialog with the Council [representing member states]," she (Sidonia Jedrzejewska, the MEP charged with steering the draft budget through parliament) said after the vote.
 
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dandelion

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doesnt dound as though she was either French, british or german. I dont understand really why you think they would have asked for less. It depends on your view on solving a recession, and also on the purpose of the EU. You expect the EU parliament to be in favour of cutting its own budget? Did british MPS favour cutting their own budget until forced into it? Have the scottish or welsh parliaments asked to have their budgets cut?
 
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It's a matter of common sense though. In a financial crisis, when many member states are struggling to survive, and introducing the toughest austerity measures for decades - is it all that wise to ask for a big hike in the EU's budget, funded by the member states themselves?

And I didn't say she was French, German or British. The quote was from the lady charged with pushing it through EU Parliament. The British, French and Germans objected separately (as was mentioned in the article I linked). ;)
 

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doesnt dound as though she was either French, british or german. I dont understand really why you think they would have asked for less. It depends on your view on solving a recession, and also on the purpose of the EU. You expect the EU parliament to be in favour of cutting its own budget? Did british MPS favour cutting their own budget until forced into it? Have the scottish or welsh parliaments asked to have their budgets cut?

There isn't a magic bullet for "solving" recessions. Good economic governance is to try to avoid them and to build up some sort of safety net in the good years.

There are broadly three approaches when recession hits.

1) Cut backs to balance the budget. This is the 1920s approach and caused a depression.

2) The Keynesian solution of government spending to stimulate the economy. Governments should spend surpluses and engage in some (modest) borrowing to fund investment. This idea is being taken up by the economic illiterate to suggest that we should not cut at all, or cut less. The Keynesian solution only works when borrowing is prudent - way below any of the borrowing levels in the EU nations.

3) Rebalancing. The simplest statement is that public sector consumes wealth, private sector creates wealth. Correct action is therefeore draconian cuts in public sector along with encouraging private sector. A bodged version of rebalancing was the Thatcherite economics of the 1980s - it did work, but at a very high social cost. Lets hope the UK gets it right this time.

The EU nations individually and the EU institutions all need rebalancing. The spending option is not possible. The EU institutions need the most severe budget cuts. The UK figure is an average of 19%, but this is in an environment where areas such as health are ringfenced. Perhaps 40% cut in EU budgets would be about right. The nations of the EU cannot afford the EU institutions. Unless the Eurocrats accept this the problems are just going to get worse. The idea that has to be donked on the head is the comfortable myth that somehow the EU can spend and legislate its way out of a mess of debt.
 

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We have argued this elsewhere in threads about the Eu whereas I started this one specifically to discuss UK defence cuts.

The curious thing is that the conservatives seem to have had an effective and realistic defence revue under the smokescreen of spending cuts and thereby accomplished something which they could not have done in good times. They have established a marker that the Royal Navy finally gives up any pretensions of being the 'senior service'. The issue of whether to carrier or not to carrier has been going on since WW2. WE have now entered a trial period of no carriers with all the signs being an intention to carry on that way. Who are we going to sell them to? How much are they worth compared to their cost?

Someone above commented on the RN having clung to quantity rather than quality of ships. I'm not sure if that is bad or good- rather depends on who you have to use them against or for what. But this package isnt simply a cost reduction, it is a clear marker to make a permanent change in the navy, down-scaled. Something labour for ideological reasons could not do, and the conservatives have.

As to what you would rather talk about, saying 'the public sector consumes wealth, private sector creates wealth', is indeed an extremely simplistic statement. For example, precisely what wealth does a restaurant create? A big part of the private sector is such service industries which create nothing tangible, certainly nothing more tangible than, for example, home helps provided by the state. By contrast the armed forces creates a very tangible and saleable spinoff of weaponry which has been one of the chief exports of this country for a long time. That is entirely due to government spending. Yet here we see the conservative state stepping back from this tangible export business. The NHS similarly is a major contributor to health development and you can't tell me that having your bad hip fixed is not a tangible increase in your personal wealth. Most 'industry' in this country either public or private is 'service' in nature and in effect there is no difference who is running it. A classic case, the banks. They make nothing, unless it is personal debt.

Th Keynsian approach as I understand it says nothing about spending 'surpluses'. It is mainly invoked at times of debt, arguing that the way to get out of government debt is to acquire more debt, spend spend spend until tax revenues pick up to pay for it. The argument is that in bad times people become innately cautious and either cannot or will not borrow. Thus government must to get economic activity moving. The theory suggests that a government should borrow as much as it can, indeed logically should always borrow as much as it can. The conservatives are not doing it. Actually, it would seem there is not a cigarette paper to be slid between labours planned cuts and the conservatives actual ones now, though the rhetoric between the two sides is different and labour plans called for extracting relatively more money from the rich and less from the poor. This is very logical if you are trying to boost spending by the public. Those rich guys are the ones who right now are sitting on their money and not spending or borrowing. It will not help to give them more.

The EU is a redistributive system. The british government, including the conservative thatcher one, deliberately chose to make it so. So what is strange if it is does what it was instructed to do.

Oh, I think the limit on Keynsian spending is the ability of the economy to respond. Thus saturation may take place when all industry is working at maximum capacity. We are not there yet. The one obvious exception is the housing market, which attracts a vast amount of the nations investment yet creates no wealth. You would expect that demand would stimulate construction, but government policy specifically prevents this. This is a huge distortion of the economy which is threatening to become so big as to endanger it.
 
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