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Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jason, May 6, 2010.
Thought we might like a thread to discuss this as it happens.
The exit poll is:
Lib Dem 59
This is Con as largest party in a hung parliament. Remember the Ulster MPs (in "Other") who would mostly support Con.
And its only a poll.
I'm amazed at the Lib Dems so very low.
Hmm, interesting! How long before a result becomes clear?
*goes to watch election telly*
(Vine's replaced Snow on the Swingometer, grrrr).
Surprising exit results
Please don't get as plastered as I did during US election night 2008. I ended up losing a pair of eye glasses! :redface:
The exit results are weird!
I suspect there are three modifying factors:
1) Shy Tories - people who voted Tory but then don't tell the exit pollster outside the station.
2) Marginals - Con have put a lot of effort into the marginals. The exit poll assumes a uniform swing.
3) Postal votes which were cast a time ago (when Lib Dems were riding high).
1+2 would nudge Con upwards. 3 would nudge Lib Dem up (at expense of both Con and Lab).
I suppose we will all know soon enough.
Even on this basis
Con 307 + Unionist 10 = 317
Lab 255 + Lib 59 = 314
The nationalists have bad relations with both Con and Lab.
I suppose the one thing that looks clear is that we will have an autumn election.
Hey Tom, check the top of your head mate
plenty of scope for a lib-con agreement on those figures with a big majority. Just that little matter of electoral reform....
or a lab-con coalition?
Reports of loads of queues of people being turned away at 10pm, police involved, heated arguments.Unable to vote.
One interesting thing to watch will be the potenial expenses backlash, for those tainted MPs who remain standing.
If the closing time of the polling stations are at 10pm, then everybody who arrives to the station up to 10:00:00 should be allowed to vote. Here in the States (at least in San Diego County, CA), they have somebody go out at the closing time and stand behind the last person in line.
Yep - still queues outside some places. Presumably they arrived b4 10?
Sunderland first seat in...Labour holds it, but 8% Cons swing.
*They revised the exit poll too, oddly. 305 Cons now.
yes, i noticed that revision. I think we have 3 sunderland results, two lab guaranteed seats where they suffered big swings against, but one where conservatives had hopes and had a swing, but significantly less than in the other two. three results and an exit poll is ridiculous statistics, but if the exit poll is a pure average, then results so far say where it matters lab held off the conservatives.
This is not going to be over tomorrow. People will be making legal challenges where people have been turned away, because 1 or 2 seats may make all the difference.
Oh and there are some very trying conaservatives right now saying this is a rollicking endorsement of their party. It certainly isnt. Either theyve squeaked in or failed.
Yep - I was disenfranchised by the system which has changed.
What a divided Nation we have.
All caveats, it is way too early. But:
a) the Lib Dem result is incredibly low. Lib Dems on television look miserable, even shocked.
b) The Lab result is dire. They have lost. I don't think they thought it would be quite this bad. They were hoping for Con around 280.
c) 5 years ago a Con result like this would have been beyond the dreams of most Tories. But it looks as if it isn't quite enough. That said I think the average swing from the three Sunderland seats was around 8%, which is enough for a Con majority. We will see!
Fascinating stuff. I wish BBC America didnt just come on for one hour every night. My buddy, who is an expert in European politics, is watching the results on C-SPAN3. Weird, I know, but the C-SPAN stations show Question Time fairly frequently.
The majority of the voting electorate are muppets. If they had any sense of intelligence they would vote properly and not tactically. Being afraid of a party of getting into power is dumb, if they are any of them so bad they will prove it and seal their fate.
Proportional representation 2014/5 please!!!!
Hi Mitch - most excellent to see you again.
I agree. The system has to change and we have to deal with those who have made our democracy less reliable.
Vote Joll/Lemon 2014 for your dreams to come true!!!
(and to see the blatant cherry-picking of all the best policies from left and right hehehe).