I was up till dawn watching the results so right now I'm cream crackered. And I'm working tomorrow too. :frown1:
i gave up about 4 though I napped a bit. It was obvious by then we just werent going to get a definite answer for some time.
My penny worth is that the Conservatives have to do a deal with the Lib Dems. Conservative plus DUP doesn't quite add up (though it does strengthen the Conservatives' hand). The state of the markets pretty much demands an agreement. I think they should take a deep breath and give Lib Dems whatever they want with the proviso that a PR change should have proper discussion (along with other electoral systems) and go to a referendum. I'm not convinced the people would vote for PR. But right now that doesn't much matter.
Its all very interesting. The deal breaker is and always will be the question of electoral reform. Between them they have enough mps to see out a whole parliament, but there will be tantrums along the way. The libs really cant afford to not get voting reform, so it has to be done right away. No pontificating committees and Cameron has to be able to deliver his mps votes. On the other hand, the cons must know its their best card to keep the libs on side, so might be tempted to delay and delay (aside from self interest). The coalition would not be hamstrung by dependence upon lots of minor parties, which will bedevil Cameron should he try to do it with the small parties and tiny majority. The alternative would be to engineer a second election quite soon, but who could guaranteee what the new result would be?
But aside from that I think a mix of lib and con policies could work well together. Theyd have the parliamentary majority and also a majority of the national vote, both of which may prove important in the next few years. Theyd be able to claim they were reflecting the will of the people to work together. Although you may have gathered id prefer majority lab to majority con, I think lib-con coalition may be better than any of the parties by itself. If they can get a working relationship which will last through very bad times.
Similarly Lib Dems have to do a deal with Conservatives. Con are the biggest party.
I dont know what the numbers are: An alternative scenario which Brown has made plain is to engineer an alliance with the regional parties, which might not even need too much bribing if they fear instead being left out of a con-lib agreement. Im not sure how the numbers are running, but it sound like they could create a majority just big enough to pass an electoral reform bill before having a new election, which would then guarantee they had a better position and the cons would be out in the cold.
Only a Lib Dem - Con agreement will settle the markets. The point is that Lib Dem - Lab will scare the horses, and the Lib Dems are good enough economists to know that.
You worry about this too much. Maybe I am too trusting, but I believe what all the politicians are saying, that its going to be fine. More seriously, it will. Labour arent fools and the cons would be truly stupid to try to attack a labour government with a tiny majority making necessary cuts. It would destroy them to be opposing measures needed to sort the budget defecit.
Additionally propping up Brown (or insisting on an unelected Lab PM) are both wrong politically.
I think the last point is pure propaganda and ridiculous, but yes, there are difficulties siding with Brown. Though as i said, I think them image difficulties rather than financial competence ones.
Right now both parties must be more knackered than I am and that's not a good time to be making a decision. Yet they really need an outline agreement by Sun eve. leave it much into next week and the markets are going to turn against us.
its been quite interesting watching various people (david steel) talking about how they need to take their time. I keep thinking hes stalling to take pressure off them so they can talk. I agree, the sooner the better. Also the libs have some grand meeting tomorrow, so if i was them, id want to have both options neatly arranged to put to the meeting by then.
Brown is now quite blatantly positioning himself for a lib coalition, but he has rather blown it. He could have introduced PR last parlaiment, maybe he wanted to keep it as a bargaining tool. The numbers mean it would be very difficult to run a 5 years government with the libs. Interestingly I think Clegg may have been trying to position himself for a lib-con deal for some while. Maybe he also watches Portillo on TV, who also suggested this outcome maybe a month ago. Might have been interesting had he become conservative leader, but the timing was bad and maybe it would have been too awful a task to turn them around.
If Cameron does this honestly it will be a game change in british politics. Maybe he also thinks the game change is inevitable. Conservative spokesman have been going round saying there have never been so many gains in one election. But that only reflects how bad their situation was before, and ignores that they still failed to win. They must know this. We now have our first Green MP, from a four way marginal.
I'm upset by this result - I think it is a very bad blow for Britain and therefore the well-being of every one of us in the UK, making us all poorer - but I do think it is possible to find a silver lining.
Well I cant say, but I believe it a better result than a con win. I'm entirely used to liberal new dawns which turn out to be oncoming train wrecks but there is potential here for reinvention of british politics. It not obvious reform partly on their terms has to be bad for the conservatives. Fundamentally, when did you ever see a politcal party put national interest before party interest? They can only agree to reform if they can see a way through it.