UK - election predictions

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jason, Jun 4, 2009.

  1. Jason

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    It looks as if we're not going to get exit polls for the elections in the UK today. No one ever bothers much with exit polls for local council elections. For the EU elections it is illegal to publish them until the polls in other EU countries close on Sunday - and we will get the real UK result very soon after this time as the votes will have been counted, so there's no point in an exit poll.

    What I've done is looked at recent polls and done a back of an envelope averaging. Yes I know its not rigorous. This is what I'm coming up with:

    LOCAL COUNCILS
    Conservative 37%
    Labour 21%
    Lib Dem 19%
    Others 23%

    EUROPE
    Conservative 29%
    Labour 17%
    UKIP 17%
    Lib Dems 15%
    Others 22%

    First thought is that the "others" category is enormous - we're not used to this in Britain. In Local Council elections they are mostly close to wasted votes (as they would be in a national election) as the first past the post system makes it hard for minor parties to make progress. (The exceptions of course are in Scotland, Wales and NI where "others" includes major parties for these regions).

    UKIP is taking votes mainly from the Conservatives, and this could be a real issue at a General Election - basically this must prompt the Conservatives to a more Euro-Sceptic position to retain votes.

    Labour is doing very badly. But if they get over 20% in the local council elections they will see this as some sort of victory. In the Euro elections there is close to a three way tie between Labour, LibDems and UKIP - there is a possibility of Labour coming 2nd, 3rd or 4th. A thought is that over 20% local and 2nd in the Euro elections will be presented as victory for Brown. Under 20% and third place (or even 4th) would be the disaster.

    LibDems don't have the sort of breakthrough they might have hoped for. Traditionally their support falls off in General Elections. The curious point is whether it would go to Labour (as usual) or to Conservative.

    Conservatives at +12 to +16 over Labour are doing well - but +20 would make a better headline. The rule of thumb is that a party needs around 42% in a national election to have a clear majority in parliament. At the moment we could be looking at a hung parliament with Labour and LibDems ruling. However the large "other" category is a new factor and maybe a government could be formed by one party with under 40%. Plus I think a campaign would see Conservatives inch up a bit.

    :redface:Yes I know this is just one person doodling with past poll results. But I think it shows how Labour could spin the results and Brown hang on. For real change we need the votes (now already cast) to show Labour doing worse than this prediction and Conservatives doing better. And please no BNP MEP!:redface:
     
  2. jason_els

    jason_els <img border="0" src="/images/badges/gold_member.gi

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    What's a MEP?
     
  3. Jason

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    Member of the European Parliament

    (like an MP but with a bigger expense account).
     
  4. Flashy

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    when did the UKIP become so strong and prevalent? :confused: I had barely even heard of them before 2006.

    are they breakaways from the conservatives?

    aren't those the folks that Cameron called "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" ?

    how many did they get in the local councils?

    when are parliamentary elections?

    when is Brown going to be out?
     
  5. Jason

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    UKIP are not a breakaway from the Conservatives, but they are taking a lot of votes from the Conservatives. Their key policy is Britain out of the EU, which is a view held by many in the UK, and which is why they are popular. They stand for the Euro elections and will presumably field candidates for the national election - the latter will take votes from the Conservatives without giving them any seats.

    The next parliamentary election could be as late as next May. The PM basically decides when it is, up to a maximum term of five years.

    I've just heard George Osborne on the BBC news requesting that Brown should go to the palace tomorrow and request a general election. I'm guessing that the private exit polls the Conservatives will have taken must have shown particularly bad results for Labour, else this comment would be over ambitious.
     
  6. jexeter87

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    UKIP originally were a bit of a breakaway from the Conservatives... they started up properly in 1997, but soon fell away, until the 2004 Euro elections, where they came third, I think. A very strong showing, with Robert Kilroy-Silk, a well-known figure, as one of their MEPs. They floundered after he left the party, but with the whole MP expenses scandal, they've shot right back up in the public perception. Especially since these are Euro elections, and that's what their main issue is.

    Parliamentary elections have to be called by May 2010, and so the latest election date is apparently September 2010. Brown will go out then, since I can't see him leaving of his own accord before then.
     
  7. Flashy

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    interesting.

    labor seems to have been rudderless for quite awhile now though. long gone are the days of "New Labor" and "Cool Britannia", seemingly...though that is just IMO, outside looking in
     
  8. Jason

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    The rudder was Tony Blair. We now have a post-Blair Labour party. No rudder and holed beneath the water line. Brown really seemed to believe that he had abolished the downturn in the economic cycle, and went for bribery of the electorate with high levels of public service expenditure paid for by borrowing in the boom years. Now we have a wreck of a fantasy ideology. If Brown doesn't go the markets will turn sour as they see a year of political drift for the UK. He has to go.
     
  9. jason_els

    jason_els <img border="0" src="/images/badges/gold_member.gi

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    Being sentenced to Brussels.. ugh. I think they deserve that bigger expense account.

    Thanks for the answer!
     
  10. Jason

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    Most (though not yet all) of the English local council elections are in. Labour have done very badly. Conservatives have done well, particularly in targetting their effort. There is now scarcely a local council in England which is not under Conservative control. Conservatives have won Devon and Somerset from the Lib Dems (which has really surprised me as this is LibDem heartland). Conservatives have won Staffordshire, Derbyshire and Lancashire, which are not natural Conservative territory at all. LibDems won Bristol (from no overall control by any party. Mnor parties have not done well (indeed the Lib Dems seem to have picked up most of the protest vote).

    The champagne corks must be poping at Conservative association offices across England. Local Council control energises the grass roots of any party, and helps a lot with canvassing at national and European level, as well as with fundraising.

    The BBC is using the figures for the local council elections to project a result if this had been a General Election (ie a national election for Westminster). No doubt thefigures will change by a point or two as the last results come in, but this is what we have:

    Conservative 38%
    Lib Dems 28%
    Labour 23%
    Others 11%

    In a General Election it is likely that support for "others" will fall away. Traditionally support for Lib Dems as the third party has been squeezed. However on these figures Labour are the third party, so maybe they would get the squeeze. The best guess result at a General Election is a Conservative government with a comfortable majority and the Lib Dems as the opposition.
     
  11. Jason

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    BBC have just announced that Labour now have no county councils in England.

    For that matter the LibDems have very few.

    England has voted Conservative. Overwhelmingly.
     
  12. B_Artful Dodger

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    Thats the British National Party. :rolleyes:
     
  13. dong20

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    Looked at that way (tricky to do with Local elections), it seems my original guestimate (based on simple gut feeling) was about right - I low balled it later, should have stuck by my instinct.:wink:

    I was right (sadly) about the BNP gaining a seat in the North of the country (Burnley, in Lancashire) and another in Herts (edge of North London) although just barely. I doubt either would have been won, or will be held in a General, at least I hope not. I'm also pleased that UKIP made only very minor gains.

    Overall I think this went pretty much as expected, extrapolated to a General, I think the main difference would be a flipping of the Labour/Lib Dem vote. I'd agree with you that overall the main parties would each gain a % point or two at the expense of the 'others'. It would be 'interesting' to see a Lib Dem opposition, even more to see a Lib Dem Government. One is unlikely, the other almost implausible.

    Overall, I think the main message is that voters are disenchanted with both main parties (perhaps less so with the Lib Dems), and Labour more than most - no surprise there then.

    I believe turnout was a tad higher than either of us expected at around 42%? - figures seem hard to come by. BTW, the figure of 38% you quoted for 2004, I think that's wrong, it was generally reported at around 45%. Low turnout tends to favour 'others', something borne out this time.

    I'd like to see Brown call an October election as soon as possible. A reshuffle 'may' buy him a short time if he continues to evade this, but he only really needs to survive until the summer recess - i.e. about six weeks.

    The way things are unfolding I wonder if that's possible, though. I'm no fan of either 'main' party. To me, they're just shades of grey ...
     
  14. D_Kissimmee Coldsore

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    I was expecting such results really for the English council elections. Conservatives down south are much stronger than they are here and even here I'd have expected Labour to flounder majorly in such an election. I believe Scotland in the European election will have voted SNP top and Labour 4th. Hard to say between the other two for second.
    The BNP seats have saddened me quite a lot. I met the guy as I left my flat who was delivering their fliers and took one before I knew what it was. In front of his face i dropped it to the ground and spat on it. Scum.
     
  15. faceking

    faceking Well-Known Member

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    More reckoning for the Labour Party... buh bye.

    We don't see honest reporting on UK political sway here in the States. Shocker.
    It always seems to be only pro-liberal in the UK. Shocker.
    It always seems to be anti-conservative in the UK. Shocker.

    Enough is enough it seems.
     
    #15 faceking, Jun 5, 2009
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2009
  16. Jason

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    I think there are two genies that have been let out of the bottle by these local council results:

    1) On local council figures extrapolated to a general election the Conservatives can expect to form a government. But there is a real risk to the Conservative vote from UKIP candidates standing in a general election. I don't think UKIP could win any seat, but they can divert a lot of Conservative votes. It seems to me that to limit damage the Conservatives will have to fight the next election on a very Eurosceptic ticket.

    2) England is voting Conservative. It is hard to see a scenario where there wouldn't be an overall Conservative majority for England. But the Conservatives will get few MPs from Scotland and Wales, and their UUP partners in Northern Ireland are presently on just one MP. In the past Scotland has been very unhappy about Scotland voting Labour at a time when the UK votes Conservative, so that Scotland got Mrs Thatcher without feeling any sense of ownership. In theory it could be the other way round at the next election with a Labour/LibDem UK and a Conservative England. I think the pressures are there for the sort of case the English democrats are making, ie an English parliament comparable to the Scottish parliament. Indeed if we are talking about the constitution this seems to be a likely outcome, and once we have an English parliament there will be lots of strains on the UK.
     
  17. Drifterwood

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    Scotland and Wales send 100 (I think) MPs to Westminster. Only four of these are Tory, and the Labour working majority is 63.

    The English County Council results have underlined the disparity in representation, when considering the Welsh Assembly Government and the Scottish Parliament. I read somewhere once that without Scotland and Wales, the UK would never have had a Labour Government.

    The current idea to greatly reduce the number of MPs would have greater impact on representation for Wales and Scotland at Westminster and would therefore likely lead to a more democratic representation for the English.

    I am surprised that the English have taken this shafting from the Scottish Labour mafia for so long.
     
  18. Joll

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    Re: the Cabinet reshuffle (with Mandelson as '1st Secretary of State')

    I desperately hope Mr. Mandelson doesn't worm his way into the PM job as a 'temporary measure' or something - then proceed to take us into Europe lock, stock and barrel against our wishes - with Tony Blair as EU President.... *shudders*
     
  19. Jason

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    The present number of MPs is:
    England 529
    Wales 40
    Scotland 59
    Northern Ireland 18
    TOTAL 646

    England will gain 4MPs at the next election as part of routine constituency boundary changes. Indeed the boundary changes relating to population movements within the UK will largely benefit the Conservatives.

    England would never had elected a Labour government had it been a single country. The deciding factor has always been the Labour MPs from Scotland. How different history would have been! While we had one national parliament the system made sense. But the present position has the unanswered "West Lothian Question" (so called because it was first asked in West Lothian. Given that we have a Scottish parliament which decides many domestic matters for Scotland, many domestic matters dealt with by the UK parliament only apply in England (and on occasions in Wales and NI). Why should Scottish MPs have a vote on matters which affect only England?

    One sort of solution would be English regional assemblies, but this idea was rejected in the NE by a referendum, and is incredible unpopular in England. England considers itself to be one unit. Another solution is for there to be an English parliament - but this isn't terribly popular either. It also leaves the national parliament with much reduced powers. Another solution is the blue skies look at the whole constitutionall settlement for the British Isles including the Channel Islands, Isle of Man and Gibraltar(which are outside the UK and the EU but British Dependent Territories). No solution is easy, and the most likely solution is to do nothing. Indeed a Conservative government with a UK majority might well favour doing nothing.

    But I do think Britain is starting to think the unthinkable. The EU is very unpopular with many, perhaps a majority, and UKIP are getting votes. The English Democrats don't seem quite the fruitcakes they once did. In Scotland the SNP is doing well and a referendum for an independent Scotland may well happen - though I think Scotland would at this moment not vote for independence.

    A special case is the position in the Irish Republic. They may soon face a neighbour in the UK which has elected a Conservative government and rejected the Lisbon Treaty. UK joining the Euro seems most unlikely - though Ireland is already a Euro member. The Irish Republic has an economy in a mess, and crashing out of the Euro is a realistic possibility. Ireland has never floated a truly independent currency and now would not be a good time to try - what makes economic sense is a punt linked to the pound. Some sort of special relationship between the four nations of the UK, plus Isle of Man, Channel Islands, Gibraltar and the Irish Republic through a Council of the Isles may be the way forward. We already have a British-Irish Council which may form the nucleus.

    I guess the point is that there is ultimately a constitutional dimension to the present political problems.
     
  20. GarthMerenghi

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    I am fucking disgusted at Yorkshire
     
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