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It looks as if we're not going to get exit polls for the elections in the UK today. No one ever bothers much with exit polls for local council elections. For the EU elections it is illegal to publish them until the polls in other EU countries close on Sunday - and we will get the real UK result very soon after this time as the votes will have been counted, so there's no point in an exit poll.
What I've done is looked at recent polls and done a back of an envelope averaging. Yes I know its not rigorous. This is what I'm coming up with:
LOCAL COUNCILS
Conservative 37%
Labour 21%
Lib Dem 19%
Others 23%
EUROPE
Conservative 29%
Labour 17%
UKIP 17%
Lib Dems 15%
Others 22%
First thought is that the "others" category is enormous - we're not used to this in Britain. In Local Council elections they are mostly close to wasted votes (as they would be in a national election) as the first past the post system makes it hard for minor parties to make progress. (The exceptions of course are in Scotland, Wales and NI where "others" includes major parties for these regions).
UKIP is taking votes mainly from the Conservatives, and this could be a real issue at a General Election - basically this must prompt the Conservatives to a more Euro-Sceptic position to retain votes.
Labour is doing very badly. But if they get over 20% in the local council elections they will see this as some sort of victory. In the Euro elections there is close to a three way tie between Labour, LibDems and UKIP - there is a possibility of Labour coming 2nd, 3rd or 4th. A thought is that over 20% local and 2nd in the Euro elections will be presented as victory for Brown. Under 20% and third place (or even 4th) would be the disaster.
LibDems don't have the sort of breakthrough they might have hoped for. Traditionally their support falls off in General Elections. The curious point is whether it would go to Labour (as usual) or to Conservative.
Conservatives at +12 to +16 over Labour are doing well - but +20 would make a better headline. The rule of thumb is that a party needs around 42% in a national election to have a clear majority in parliament. At the moment we could be looking at a hung parliament with Labour and LibDems ruling. However the large "other" category is a new factor and maybe a government could be formed by one party with under 40%. Plus I think a campaign would see Conservatives inch up a bit.
:redface:Yes I know this is just one person doodling with past poll results. But I think it shows how Labour could spin the results and Brown hang on. For real change we need the votes (now already cast) to show Labour doing worse than this prediction and Conservatives doing better. And please no BNP MEP!:redface:
What I've done is looked at recent polls and done a back of an envelope averaging. Yes I know its not rigorous. This is what I'm coming up with:
LOCAL COUNCILS
Conservative 37%
Labour 21%
Lib Dem 19%
Others 23%
EUROPE
Conservative 29%
Labour 17%
UKIP 17%
Lib Dems 15%
Others 22%
First thought is that the "others" category is enormous - we're not used to this in Britain. In Local Council elections they are mostly close to wasted votes (as they would be in a national election) as the first past the post system makes it hard for minor parties to make progress. (The exceptions of course are in Scotland, Wales and NI where "others" includes major parties for these regions).
UKIP is taking votes mainly from the Conservatives, and this could be a real issue at a General Election - basically this must prompt the Conservatives to a more Euro-Sceptic position to retain votes.
Labour is doing very badly. But if they get over 20% in the local council elections they will see this as some sort of victory. In the Euro elections there is close to a three way tie between Labour, LibDems and UKIP - there is a possibility of Labour coming 2nd, 3rd or 4th. A thought is that over 20% local and 2nd in the Euro elections will be presented as victory for Brown. Under 20% and third place (or even 4th) would be the disaster.
LibDems don't have the sort of breakthrough they might have hoped for. Traditionally their support falls off in General Elections. The curious point is whether it would go to Labour (as usual) or to Conservative.
Conservatives at +12 to +16 over Labour are doing well - but +20 would make a better headline. The rule of thumb is that a party needs around 42% in a national election to have a clear majority in parliament. At the moment we could be looking at a hung parliament with Labour and LibDems ruling. However the large "other" category is a new factor and maybe a government could be formed by one party with under 40%. Plus I think a campaign would see Conservatives inch up a bit.
:redface:Yes I know this is just one person doodling with past poll results. But I think it shows how Labour could spin the results and Brown hang on. For real change we need the votes (now already cast) to show Labour doing worse than this prediction and Conservatives doing better. And please no BNP MEP!:redface: