UK General Election

Discussion in 'Politics' started by tomthelad91, May 5, 2010.

  1. tomthelad91

    tomthelad91 New Member

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    The 2010 General Election is upon us. This is the most exciting election since 1992; no one knows the outcome.

    It's time to make your mind up.

    Based on all the polls, I do not think the Conservatives will get a majority.
    I think Labour will do better than the polls suggest - people always slag off the incumbent but then once in the polling booth change their minds (look at '92).

    So what are everyone's predictions?

    I'll put mine out there.

    • Conservative 297
    • Labour 230
    • Libdems 91
    • Others 32


    Seats to watch:
    Stirling - 4 way marginal
    Brighton Pavillion - Greens first seat?
    Barking - BNPs first seat?
    Buckingham - UKIPs first seat?
     
  2. Joll

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    That's what I was thinking. It's ok to plump for LibDem's beforehand, but what happens when it comes to the crunch?

    Not sure of the exact numbers but I'd think Cons on about 305-310 seats. Labour next, narrowly beating Libs into 3rd.
     
  3. tomthelad91

    tomthelad91 New Member

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    I very much doubt the tories will get above 300, but we shall see tomorrow :)
     
  4. B_crackoff

    B_crackoff New Member

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    Well I've actually stuck my money where my mouth is & put about £600 worth of deposits on spreadbets.

    I thought it would be about 290 C, 245 Lab, 84 LD, but I listened to a friend who is always wrong & have backed the Tories to get 301-50 seats, whilst selling seats under 324 - if that makes any sense, Labour to get 210.5+, LD 80.5+.

    I then looked at the bookies - who were far more accurate last time than the pollsters, & they think about 314C, 225 Lab, 80 - with the Greens getting Bri Pav.

    BNP won't win Barking, though they could take a lot of council seats, & with Ind LAB standing, it could go to NOC, though this is dependent on a low turnout, & Barking normally doesn't have 50%+. The rumours of postal fraud have already started - its traditional for some clans to let a proxy decide their vote for them etc.

    I reckon Hodge's vote will slip to 40+-1, & Griffin about 30+-2. She's been on the streets saying it's a 2 horse race.

    I also saw that 60 TV crews will be at the count. Expect a lot of Unite, & anti-facists causing trouble with the locals, most of whom don't mind a fight with strangers of any political persuasion.

    Farage beating Bercow. Now that would be very funny!!

    I also got a call from an activist, & the Tories think they're over 300, & I saw that they also think they can get some Labour & LibDem defectors post election. Add the DUP, & they only need 324 to hold a majority (assuming Sinn Fein don't take their seats).

    I'll plump for a final go at 305 Con, 230 Lab, 84 LibDem.

    Who knows what will happen tomorrow. Labour's vote actually dropped from the poll predictions in all their victories. We won't know till about 2AM unless it's clear that the Tories have pulled out 37.5%+in which case they'll have a small majority, which remember is no bad thing, as they can't railroad things through.

    Maybe there's a Labour shame thing going on, & people won't admit to voting that way?

    I'm getting laid one way or another after 11 while it's on, so it will be a night to remember for me!
     
  5. Jason

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    I'll go for 320-325 Con. Add in the Unionists and that is just about a majority.
     
  6. B_crackoff

    B_crackoff New Member

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    It is a majority, but they'd rather not fork out £200M. The swingometers are way out on this if the bookies are this right - maybe they should start a sideline.

    It just seems so unbelievable that labour will finally be gone:bluboomteamenforcer

    Time to dance:banana: Time to play:headbang: Time to stop banging our heads against the wall with their incompetence:banghead:

    Time to party:laola:

    Then wake up & think oh shit, we're still under 10 feet of crap:cussing:

    But at least we punished the tossers behind it.:buttkick:

    Now that's democracy:party:
     
    #6 B_crackoff, May 5, 2010
    Last edited: May 5, 2010
  7. GarthMerenghi

    GarthMerenghi Member

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    I'm so excited to vote tomorrow, also excited by the surge in popularity for the Liberal Democrats, it can only do good.
     
  8. B_crackoff

    B_crackoff New Member

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    Seen it all before I'm afraid. They're all shit really! Hope is a bastard!

    A lot of people will be voting against their self interest tommorow - I'm one of them. If the Labour vote is less than the LDs then they might even leap to 100 seats.

    1997 was a feelgood election - get rid of bastards who'd run out of ideas & were weak on them too. 2001&2005 were entirely predictable, but we won't know until the early hours.

    I've watched every single election till the result since I was little. Anyone else gonna be up till the bitter end (Ok not the Hebrides) - but ahh for those Portillo, Finchley, Oona King & Mellor moments. I so hope there's an upset somewhere, even if it's in Barking!

    A Garth Merenghi fan. We are few! Romford Hospital staff are just like that.

    Edit - the BBC are predicting 283, 255, 80 -based on the swing - same figures, but we know that it's not swinging like that in the marginals. I'd be surprised if the LDs lost Romsey.

    Optimum for my bets would be 301,233,84
     
    #8 B_crackoff, May 5, 2010
    Last edited: May 5, 2010
  9. arthurdent

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    I've already cast my vote by post but I don't think it will make a difference in my constituency.
     
  10. Mr. Snakey

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    The final polls suggest a hung parliament. Thats good news for the size queens.
     
  11. arthurdent

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    Ho ho ho. Every time they've said "Hung Parliament" on the TV, I keep expecting someone to do a knob gag, but I've not even heard comedians mention it. However, Channel 4 is doing an alternative election night special on Thursday, so I'm sure someone will start talking about cocks.:biggrin1:
     
  12. Mr. Snakey

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    Just having a bit of go my friend. England is a great country and it will continue to be a great country regardless of the results on election day. I grew up with the music, comedy and culture. One day i shall visit your country.
     
  13. dandelion

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    in contrast to this election.

    In 1997 people felt positive about voting for labour. In this election people want to vote liberal but dont believe they can win. They are not moving to conservative because they think it is a good choice but only because they think labour is a bad choice. In truth, most of those who voted labour last time wil still vote labour this time, maybe only 10% of people will have changed their minds. So how can 10% of the population changing their vote completely change the result when 90% of us have not?

    But of course the pollsters know that and would have considered it in their predictions....But I agree, I havnt seen anyone talking about how accurate they think their predictions are. Also theres a larger than normal number of people who still say they will vote but havn't decided yet.
     
  14. Joll

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    Flamey's delighted. :wink:

    Yep, that's how I saw it (and felt). They'd got sick of Tory sleaze and the feeling that they were pompous gits who didn't have a clue about ordinary people. Also, I think we were all slightly dazzled by Blair's charisma and political skill...not realising that perhaps it wasn't all going to be in our best interests. They did inherit a pretty good economy in 97' too...

    Hmm, sort of. Some want to vote Lib, but others are wary of some of their policies and their ability to govern. I think some people geniunely have moved to Conservative (for the time being), not because they like the Tories, but because it's perhaps in the best interests of our country at this time - in terms of doing something about the economy, and re-addressing the balance with Europe, if possible; and also that Labour have outstayed their welcome and become ineffective.

    I agree, though, that many people will still vote as they did last time.
     
    #14 Joll, May 6, 2010
    Last edited by a moderator: May 6, 2010
  15. flame boy

    flame boy Account Disabled

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    I was too young to vote in the last general election, but I have always thought of myself as a Labour follower because my ideals are closest to theirs, however today I voted for the Liberal Democrats. It wasn't a difficult choice to make for me as Labour have gone right down the pan and I won't ever be someone who votes for the Conservatives.

    The deed is done, roll on the hung parliament *licks lips*!
     
  16. D_Andreas Sukov

    D_Andreas Sukov Account Disabled

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    If The tories get in, this country will just be more fucked up. If labour get in, we will be fucked, but hopefully things wont be made too worse, If lib dems get in, What the fuck is going on? :D

    A hung parliament is not amazing, but would be interesting. All this election has done has put me off mainstream politics even more. They think of the public as idiots.
     
  17. B_crackoff

    B_crackoff New Member

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    Hey hey. We've finally found some common ground.

    They truly are a bunch of obsequious bastards. What about a random lottery, it couldn't be worse!

    I was invited to Barking today, & lo & behold at St Cedd's church, where my mate was voting, was das Fuherer Nick Griffin, & about 150 press & TV!

    I had to have a word, but he seems like a nice chap, surprisingly. He likes Sikhs - shocker! Troops out of Afghanistan, no war with Iran, state control of money issuance, proper punishment for bankers, nationalisation of utilities - the guy's a socialist. He's still gonna fall at least 6% short though - & God I hate Margaret Hodge!

    That said has anyone seen The Last Supper, & the Ron Perleman(Hellboy) character. Lol. I wouldn't risk him around for dinner!:rocketwhore:

    I've now met every major current leader but Gordon Brown, though I met Blair when I was younger.

    A political Figurine Panini sticker book?

    Shame about Nigel Farage today. An odd looking guy, but a nice fellah.

    I've been invited to the Barking count, where I'm sure there will be more coppers than a buskers satchel, & riot/historic possibilities. But I've got plans - forcing a lady to watch the election on TV, whilst she has free reign with me.:smile:

    I had local election votes today too. One went to the landlord of my local.

    It's as good a reason as any:smile:
     
  18. B_crackoff

    B_crackoff New Member

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    Well unfortunately, I've put my money where my big fat mouth is:smile:

    I am screwed if the Tories got 351+ seats! Anywhere under 324, & I make money whatever happens, assuming the LDs get 81 or more seats!

    Betting does make life interesting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  19. dandelion

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    The point about the lib dems comes from the start of the campaign. The figures from yougov then were approximately voting plans 40% con 30% lab 20% lib, but when they asked who the people really wanted to win, the answer was 50% lib. I havnt seen the figure about who people would really like to win more recently. The published figures are voting intentions, not who people really want. Given the actual lib vote has improved I wouldnt really expect the numbers wanting them as government to have declined.

    Makes a total mockery of any claim by lab or con to have a mandate.
     
  20. Catchoftheday

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    Only 1 hour left to go now, maybe the turnout will be up on the 61.3% last time?
     
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