US Economy Fucked?

[faceking]

Last I checked.. unemployment still stands around/better than the average of the 90s, 80s and 70s.

Stock market hasn't tanked... it's cooled. Slight up from 12 months ago, down from 6 months ago, up from 2 years ago, 3 years ago, etc...

Real estate is doing what internet/tech did in 2000. Except keep in mind how BIG the tech bubble of 3-5 years was vs a real estate bubble of 15 years.

The stock market then was partially inflated by shady bookkeeping, and the housing market was partially inflated by gambling with re-fi's and ARMs... assuming real estate would never go down.

Dollar is down, but fortunately... that isn't a 100% bad thing.

 

[swordfishME]

Everyone keeps harping about how weak the US dollar is; but at the end of the day the weakness of the dollar will play a very important role in preventing chaos in the US and through ripple effects the world economy.

 

[faceking]

At the same time, the trade deficit has ballooned and the country has been bleeding $$$. Not to mention a war now running in the trillions of dollars and a 9 trillion dollar debt.

So easy to throw out stats.. and paint doom and gloom. A $9T debt... like saying the latest Will Ferrell movie grossed more $$$ than Gone With the Wind.

Let's look at debt as a percentage of GDP... circa Clinton's 3rd year in office, the debt/GDP ratio got up to about 68%. The tech boom happened, revenues poured in at unprecedented rates, and the ratio went down to 58% as Clinton left office. Those revenue streams died out, despite the spending habits of "good economy" and Bush continued to spend and spend like a Democrat.

Now debt as a percentage of GDP sits at about 64%.

In other words, we've been more in hock, and enjoyed prosperous times... not to say another tech boom will happen... but the glass is half full still khrist almighty.

Saying Bill Clinton engineered a surplus is complete and udder folly. Saying Bush inherited a rapidly deflating revenue balloon, but still continued to spend is correct.

 

[dreamer20]

Saying Bill Clinton engineered a surplus is complete and udder folly. Saying Bush inherited a rapidly deflating revenue balloon, but still continued to spend is correct.

To say G.W.Bush inherited that budget surplus is correct. Then the spending spree started.

 

[Mr Stiffy]

Economics as a discipline has failed to provide any 'REAL' solutions to tackle poverty. You think they can come up with any solution to what's going on in America....I don't think so.

I sound pessimist all the time but vindicator has a point. People don't realise whats going on in the WORLD economy

 

[SpeedoGuy]

Its curious. There were recently threads in this very forum questioning the relevancy of the US and its dollar. Yet global stock markets shook and had to be stabilized following the announcement of the Bear Stearns debacle.

 

[Drifterwood]

That is precisely the point Speedo.

Your economy is too weak, too mismanaged, too much at the mercy of it's debt, too closed to transparency, and several other things to be the Global cornerstone. That is why there is such turbulence when some new weakness in your system is exposed.

It is indeed time to ditch the $

 

[dreamer20]

not as bad as it looks ... about 18 months ago, I was predicting a recession, ...

Everyone keeps harping about how weak the US dollar is; but at the end of the day the weakness of the dollar will play a very important role in preventing chaos in the US and through ripple effects the world economy.

Bush and McCain also painted a rosy picture of the economy: YouTube - McCain: Out of Touch

until their heads were pulled out of the sand this month.

I don't think people really realize the gravity of the current situation. This in many ways is a perfect storm and i'm not sure how the WORLD economy is going to deal with it. I'm beginning to worry about a worldwide economic collapse, similar to 1929 but on a larger scale.

Look at what has been happening. Since 2001 the US dollar has been dropping, and oil prices have gone up by like x4. At the same time, the trade deficit has ballooned and the country has been bleeding $$$. Not to mention a war now running in the trillions of dollars and a 9 trillion dollar debt. Mix in the sub prime mortgage fiasco with the scores of people having to leave there homes, and the devaluation of the people that do get to keep their homes, it is a recipe for total disaster.

In regards to the war... even if everything Bush said WAS true (which it wasn't), the government cannot continue financially to continue on this scale. I think there are real parallels to the Roman Empire who's downfall was overexerting itself.

I think it is only a mater of time until other countries are pulled into the wake since the world is now integrated more then ever.

They need to get some economists who REALLY know what they are doing to get out of this mess.

You were correct about the severity of the economic crisis vindicator. I hope Congress does not agree with Bush's plan to put the bailout money into the hands of the same bankers who messed up. :zx11pissed:

YouTube - Tonight's King George Bush II Economic Crisis Speech - Part 1 of 2

 

[Nrets]

Now Bush is admitting that the economy is in serious danger. How bad is this situation really?
What is a 700B dollar loan going to do?
Isn't that sort of like giving someone who has tremendous amounts of unpaid debt a new homeloan?
Can the government go bankrupt?
I mean if the 700B fails to make new jobs and no one can pay taxes...then how the hell ...idk.
The worst case scenario would be that countries who loaned us money decide to try and cash out as the dolalr collapses.
I suppose at that point we could nationalize everything and go to war, and probably still control everything.
There are so many failsafes...the economy is pretty much guaranteed perpretually.

But at what price to freedom?

 

[Deno]

I don't know what the big focus on the US is. Like were the only country having economic problems. This is what happens when you put all you beans in one pot, namely mortgage holdings. If big insurance companies wouldn't be the greedy bastards that they are, people wouldn't have to worry about the pensions going belly up.

 

[lucky8]

There is no way we can pay off a $12 trillion debt, anytime soon. America is going downhill, fast, and the damage has been done. Contrary to popular belief, the dollar isn't backed by gold, it isn't backed by silver, it is backed by nothing! The trust for the value of the U.S. dollar is the only thing backing it, and that trust is quickly fading. The price of gold is skyrocketing for a reason guys...