We're all doomed, we're going to die.

[Elmer Gantry]

NASA - 'Remarkable' Drop in Arctic Sea Ice Raises Questions

Discuss.

 

[2322]

The key to note is that they've only been studying the sea ice for 30 years. This could be a part of a normal pattern that takes many years or even centuries. There is so much we don't know how about earth works. The question has to be asked though, is this truly significant? The truthful answer is we don't know. It's significant only within the past 30 year period.

 

[Elmer Gantry]

Thank you, Jason. I thought I was the only one.

 

[2322]

Thank you, Jason. I thought I was the only one.

No, not the only one. The climate is changing, of that I'm sure, however the climate has always been changing and whether humankind is effecting a change in the climate or these changes are part of a purely natural process is difficult to tell. I am fairly certain that we're in a very warm period right now, perhaps warmer than any in recorded history though Earth certainly has been much warmer in prehistoric periods. It has also been much colder.

When climatologists have an idea of what the patterns are and what averages we should be seeing for this cycle, then we will finally have an idea what the true situation is. I suspect that deep core sampling of seabeds, soils, and icepacks should give us an idea of what is really going on.

 

[findfirefox]

I think we have had some effect, but I'm far from sure of the extent...

But I already do my part so WHATEVA

 

[holsty101]

Yeah, we're doomed... <sings the doom song>

... deep core sampling of ... icepacks ...

Already happened, back in 1968 (...!)

 

[Guy-jin]

No, not the only one. The climate is changing, of that I'm sure, however the climate has always been changing and whether humankind is effecting a change in the climate or these changes are part of a purely natural process is difficult to tell. I am fairly certain that we're in a very warm period right now, perhaps warmer than any in recorded history though Earth certainly has been much warmer in prehistoric periods. It has also been much colder.

When climatologists have an idea of what the patterns are and what averages we should be seeing for this cycle, then we will finally have an idea what the true situation is. I suspect that deep core sampling of seabeds, soils, and icepacks should give us an idea of what is really going on.

Deep ice cores have been collected for decades and there's no instance of CO2 rising as quickly as it has over the last century that I can recall reading up on.

Coincidence that it coincides with humanity expanding to incredible size and making CO2-generating technology practically ubiquitous? I think that's being quite naive.

The northern ice cap hasn't been absent for over one million years.

Current estimates state that at the current rate of retreat, it'll be gone by 2030. And the prevailing theory is that the cap itself exists in two major states: one that consists of a constant ice cap that expands and retreats over the year, and one that exists as liquid water year-round.

It honestly is past time people stop denying the indisputable truth that global warming is having a dramatic and negative impact on the planet, and that it's man-made.

Many people seem to think humans aren't capable of having major impacts on the planet because we're so small in comparison to it. But we are very much capable of being a major force affecting this planet.

The consequences of global ice packs melting completely is some of the things that there is evidence of having contributed to the greatest extinction event in the planet's history, the Permian-Triassic extinction. There is basically no way we can stop such a force once it's been started, and humanity is quite literally powerful enough to initiate it at this point. I'm not sure if we, as a race, would be capable of surviving such an event. And even if we did survive, I'd guess the vast majority of humanity will end up dying.

I don't believe that we're "doomed" to that fate, however. Much as we've caused such a massive effect on the planet, there's no reason to think it's impossible to have an equally massive effect in the direction of preventing a major extinction event.

For information about this specific phenomenon, here are a couple of articles:
http://atoc.colorado.edu/~dcn/reprints/Overpeck_etal_EOS2005.pdf
The Science Behind the Shrinking Arctic Ice Cap: The Pew Center on Global Climate Change

 

[B_tallbig]

in a sense we are doomed anyways because we all eventually are going to die.

 

[Male Bonding etc]

I second Guy-jin's comments. Waiting for completely indisputable evidence doesn't make sense, especially when we can change some of our behaviors and make a difference now.

We've had a global warming/climate change thread or two before, but the topic does bear revisiting.

 

[Strontium]

Speaking as someone trained in Environmental Geology, I can't accept the tepid moderation that you pose, Jason-els (with all due respect).

There are a number of indexes of global warming. Ice cover is just one of them. They all point to an alarming warming of the planet. We can keep arguing that global warming has no relation to human activity, but the writing is on the wall, and the consensus of scientists around the world don't doubt the connection anymore. The time has come to stop doubting, and to do something about it.

The biggest single contributor to global warming is CO2 from the cars we drive, so lets not pass the buck and say its someone else's problem.

 

[Big en]

Good thing I have my rubber ring and inflatible arm bands:smile:

 

[Strontium]

Well Big_en, don't forget the SPF 120+

 

[Male Bonding etc]

You've got it, Stront!

 

[Blocko]

Of course, 30 years or so ago, it used to rain in the capital cities of Australia. World wide there are many long term droughts, in fact an abnormal number in that they're spread around the entire Earth in many locations.

Have you met a climate change refugee? I've met someone from the Carteret Islands in Papua New Guinea who had to leave their homes because of rising sea levels in the area. Could you look them in the eye and tell them "hey, we're going to keep pumping carbon dioxide into the air, because I'm not convinced"?

In fact, the science of man made climate change is simple enough to be taught at a superficial level at high school. The crap that climate change skeptics shovel about it "not being proven" or "the science not being certain" is semantic nonsense. The scientific method doesn't create proofs of theories, you can only disprove a theory via contradictory evidence and even then, a theory can be amended to work within the new results.

Current empirical, historical and experimental evidence is clearly in support of the theory. Energy enters the atmosphere and greenhouse gas in the atmosphere traps infrared/heat radiation from exiting into space. This effect can be shown in a lab experiment with rather simple tools.

We know roughly how much CO2 goes into the atmosphere, we know a lot about the numbers involved with solar radiation, the current makeup of the atmosphere and the makeup of the atmosphere after CO2. In other words, we know via collecting evidence and various lab experiments, combined with simple statistics gathering, what is going on. In other words, this part of the science is virtually beyond question.

In other words scientists know what's going on to the point where they can say with a large degree of certainty we're warming the Earth by emitting huge amounts of CO2. The only controversy left in the science world (apart from the hacks) is what the effects on things like the weather will be, how fast it will happen and who it will impact worst.

Right now I'm ready to lump in those who remain to be overly skeptical against man made climate change with holocaust deniers.

 

[rob_just_rob]

My universal response to global warming threads is now http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_Wager

 

[Gillette]

My universal response to global warming threads is now Pascal's Wager - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I wasn't aware of what it was called but I was going to say something similar.

We have the technology to do better for the environment, not only to preserve it but because we happen to live in it. Why not keep it as clean as we are able simply because we can.

 

[Big en]

Well Big_en, don't forget the SPF 120+

Come on I am a gay man I always have SPF

 

[rob_just_rob]

I wasn't aware of what it was called but I was going to say something similar.

We have the technology to do better for the environment, not only to preserve it but because we happen to live in it. Why not keep it as clean as we are able simply because we can.

Exactly. It's a logical response. The consequences of doing nothing if GW exists are much worse than the consequences of doing something if it doesn't exist.

(Ironically, I don't buy into the reasoning behind Pascal's original Gambit)

 

[rob_just_rob]

Come on I am a gay man I always have SPF

Small Penis Fear?

 

[Calcium]

The Day After Tomorrow was one of the worst experiences of my life, and it was only a two hour movie. I don't know what I'd do if I had to deal with a real-life version of that godawful waste of film.