What will happen to Greece?

[Drifterwood]

Drifterwood, I don't believe you belong in las Islas Malvinas. Personally, I believe you belong on a tranquil tropical beach in a reclining lounge chair under the shade of a rustic palm-covered ramada enjoying a cold adult beverage refreshment sporting a tiny umbrella. I don't give a damn about the sheep. :smile:

It's destiny I tell you.

Sheep, sailing yachts, Desire and the place was "discovered" by Davis. A bloody Davis.

Thanks Spike - I was talking about the modern history supported by UN Resolutions and accepted International Law.

You need a break in the American Virgin Islands or Hawaii. :wink:

 

[Jason]

The best thing that could happen right now with the Falklands issue is for it all to go quiet. We don't want the US or anyone else supporting our ownership and making it a media circus. In the meantime we will no doubt be working hard to break the present South and Central American consensus.

Ownership of an inhabited land which is a distinct territorial area is in international law subject to the concept of self determination and nothing else. Proximity is only relevant in the case of an uninhabited land (eg Rockall). Nor do noisy views count - the achievement of international law is to say that there really are international laws which apply despite powerful lobbies opposing them. The only thing that matters in law is the will of the Falklanders; proximity to Argentina (and in fact they are not that close) and the views of countries in S & C America doesn't change the legal position.

Argentina is acting with an eye on their next election, and it is unlikely that we will be able to have a proper discussion with Argentina until this is out of the way. Unfortunately I think for a short term electoral issue Argentina is risking loss of a big source of income. It makes sense for us to trans-ship Falklands Oil in Argentinian ports and to sell Falklands Oil to countries including Argentina. But none of this is essential. It would be possible to process the oil on the Falklands and to ship the length of the Atlantic to Europe and North America. Once we get as far as talking about developing the facilities on the Falklands (and developing Ascension as a supply base) the decision is pretty much made. Argentina won't be needed.

 

[midlifebear]

Loved the Sheep Crest. But I thought even the folks on those windy craggy rocks (not much soil) call themselves "Kelpers" and not "Sheepers." :smile:

 

[helgaleena]

Iceland anyone???? :wink:

 

[Jason]

Iceland?

We should have bought it last year. Iceland went bankrupt owing lots of money, including lots to Britain. It was in effect up for sale. Nice bit of real estate.

 

[midlifebear]

Anyone remember when Germany offered to buy Mallorca from Spain? So many Germans had retired to the island and bought property that it had become it's own Deutsch Mark treasury. So, Germany made a seemingly innocent proposal to Spain to buy the damn place for an ocean of balearic money. Rather than rattle sabres, Spain just raised property taxes for Spanish non-citizens. Thus out pricing the Germans from their comfy, palm-studded retirement homes. For a while it was possible to get a real good deal on a three bedroom 20 bathroom (you know how Germans are about hygiene) vacation home.

Ah, the sand box.

 

[Drifterwood]

Ah, the sand box.

See, if it's just local politics windbagging, then noone's really going to give a shit.

Still anyone who enjoys a good sheep, a good dance and Rugby can't be all bad.

 

[midlifebear]

See, if it's just local politics windbagging, then noone's really going to give a shit.

Still anyone who enjoys a good sheep, a good dance and Rugby can't be all bad.

ROTFLMAO!!!!! :banana::lmao::lmao::lmao::lmao::banana:

 

[swordfishME]

Are Germans big on Hygiene? I thought all Europeans were like the Brits and avoided showers at all costs.............

 

[eurotop40]

Are Germans big on Hygiene? I thought all Europeans were like the Brits and avoided showers at all costs.............

HUH???

 

[B_nyvin]

Are Germans big on Hygiene? I thought all Europeans were like the Brits and avoided showers at all costs.............

Brits just avoid Dental Care and Prostate Cancer treatment

 

[B_flashflash]

Greece only accounts to 3% of the EU total GDP, if anything Italy is a bigger worry at it accounts for around 15% European GDP and similar proportion of the overall amount of debt of EU states.

What we will probably see is the euro loosing to the dollar and assessing itself at similar values of 2001. Just over the $1 mark.

Greece will not default because it is a "manageable" country, not big population and wealth is concentrated in few people. Italy...duuno?

 

[Jason]

Greece needs about US$ 68 billion to stabilise its finances. Greece may have difficulty borrowing this and be unable to repay the interest charged. Greece is asking for the borrowing to be guaranteed by other Eurozone states so that they can borrow the money they need and without penalty charges.

The first problem with this idea is that the EU's Lisbon Treaty does not provide a framework. It would need to be agreements by individual countries, certainly including Germany. The second problem is that onece bought out of its present difficulties there is no reason to think that Greece would keep to the austerity plan needed. Indeed it is likely that Greece would need further bailouts for many years to come. The third problem is that whatever solution is found will have to be applied to other countries.

Probably we are looking at some limited provision of guaranteed loans to stave off disaster, but guaranteed by Germany (and maybe one or two others) not the Eurozone or the EU. If the problem were limited to Greece it would be containable - after all Greece is less than 3% of the EU GDP. But the problem isn't. Add Spain (now well in the firing line), Italy (agreed big problems here), Portugal and Ireland and it is around a third of the EU's GDP - and a default of this size would be horrific. And there are other Eurozone countries not much better. The total of dodgy Eurozone nations sovereign debt varies depending on what lot of figures you look at but is something like US$700bn. Politicians have to act in a way that will reassure the markets or this lot will go bad. And so far there is not much sign of activity.

 

[dandelion]

What we will probably see is the euro loosing to the dollar and assessing itself at similar values of 2001. Just over the $1 mark.

Greece will not default because it is a "manageable" country, not big population and wealth is concentrated in few people. Italy...duuno?

If the problem were limited to Greece it would be containable - after all Greece is less than 3% of the EU GDP. But the problem isn't.

The problem is that it is not Greece's problem. The Uk is in a precarious position. The US is in a precarious position. So if the dollar and pound are also in freefall, then the euro may still be looking pretty good. All this nonsense about dire problems for the euro is completely ignoring the fact that this is a world wide crisis. Maybe Iceland and Ireland will be able to chip in something to help Greece? after all, I hear they had a real boom not so long ago. Isn't Iceland arguing about authorising a rescue package for the UK?

 

[Jason]

I guess you are joking Drifterwood. Iceland is absolutely broke with debts beyond the capacity of its people to repay, ever. Sooner or later the world will decide enough is enough and write off those debts. Ireland is trying something very special - good luck to them in making it work.

Very many countries are in serious problems, certainly including the UK and the US. With the UK and the US it is possible to see a way forward within the existing frameworks. With the Eurozone it is the framework that prevents a way forward. The Euro is the problem, not the solution.

 

[eurotop40]

The Euro is the problem, not the solution.

In the 60s 1 GBP = 20 CHF, today 1 GBP = 1.5 CHF. Great solution!

 

[D_Tully Tunnelrat]

In the 60s 1 GBP = 20 CHF, today 1 GBP = 1.5 CHF. Great solution!

And yet the standard of living has risen markedly in both countries, which seems a far better metric by which to judge, and validates currency rebalancing. If the pound were still at those levels the complaint here would be about UK trying to preserve the empire. Markets are "emperialistic," not imperialistic.

 

[798686]

Proposals are emerging for a European version of the IMF. Not just to provide bailout money - but also to co-ordinate fiscal policy among eurozone countries.

Passages like "The talks in Brussels over the launch of such a fund will form part of a wider package of reforms that would enable Brussels to co-ordinate economic and fiscal policy among eurozone states" sound like they're looking for a way to create an embryonic single economic government (the only way to make the euro work? but which will lead to more federalisation...).

 

[eurotop40]

...
Passages like "The talks in Brussels over the launch of such a fund will form part of a wider package of reforms that would enable Brussels to co-ordinate economic and fiscal policy among eurozone states" sound like they're looking for a way to create an embryonic single economic government (the only way to make the euro work? but which will lead to more federalisation...).

I am not sure that coordination is bad. And, again, for instance in Switzerland we have a highly federal fiscal policy: we have different taxation in each village, obviously we have nation-wide the same VAT percentage. I guess by "federalisation" you mean "centralization", but I am sure that countries like Luxembourg and Austria will fiercely oppose that.

 

[798686]

Yup, I meant further centralisation (towards a single superstate eventually) sorry.