Jason, you just don't get the big picture. Its simple. Bankers want to make money. They get paid on commission. This is no different to the US mortgages affair, where people made loans which were impossible to repay because they would benefit irrespective, and to hell with whether the customers would suffer or the bank would suffer. This is exactly the same. Bankers as a class just want to manipulate the price to make more money. They see an opening by hyping up difficulties with the weakest economies in Europe. Especially if they believe there is no real risk of default, because the EU will pay.
I agree, this suggests Greece ought to have been allowed to go bust. But that would mean a lot of pain for Greeks and a knock on pain for us too. propping them up means the banks win, but maybe we get less pain too. The real issue is to SORT OUT THE BANKS! The euro is half a solution to this, and in due course even Greece may come up with the other half of the solution.
Greece is in a nose dive. If the good times came tomorrow Greece would still crash.
Now think...thats silly.
the hard times for Greece are now inevitable
Actually, no. International trade is mostly a confidence trick. Admittedly, very unlikely now they can escape with no pain, but the reality is that everyones good times are also a confidence trick, and very probably a fraud on our children. Time we fixed this, I think. Its a systemic issue not a national one.
the austerity programme won't work (it won't, see this week's strikes)
This is just headlines. News media are appalling these days at hyping news. Good has to to fantastic and bad has to be disaster. Strikes may be a good thing. Its not the people on the street, but those at home watching who may be thinking, do we really want to allow this? A bit of a riot may just convince people of the need for change.
There is a steady and continuing downward trend for the Euro.
I though you said Greece needed a depreciated curency? ditto, spain, portugal, etc? Obviously the euro balances depending on how its members behave as an aggregate. But you forget that fundamentally bankers WANT to lend. They WANT to trade. So they can get rich and retire to a Greek island. The euro CANNOT be pushed down, because that means some other currency has to go up. Which shining example, exactly, is all the capital going to fly to? Maybe to the pound?
Which brings us to another matter. The pound isnt going to collapse. Its useful to bankers. its an alternative to the euro and the dollar. Its no good saying any of these is going to collapse, because there is no better currency for them to collapse against. Its all just traders trying to engineer short term advantages in their positions. Someone should stop them.
It will weaken the asset base across the Eurozone causing real problems.
Dont understand what you mean.
The whisper of a whisper is now not default on Greek sovereign debt or default on Club Med sovereign debt but default on Euroszone sovereign debt.
Its not possible. It would in effect be a world default. Which wouldnt stop BANKERS engineering it if they could make enough on the trade to retire. Theres no point worrying about it, because if they do destabilise the system that far we will be talking about a new game by new rules. This might be a good thing. I dont know if the euro bank has been working on what they plan to do should the world default?
The UK is at a cross-roads. I half heard a comedy sketch last night with the line "The Tories are saying 'vote for us or the country gets it'". Crude but right.
I think you miss the point. I'd say the comedians are attacking the conservative party for having no policy other than to try to trick or blackmail people into voting for them. I fear this is precisely correct. They have not demonstrated any positive policy reason to vote for them.
If we have Brown back or a Lib-Lab pact the markets will turn in days.
For the better, you mean? The election will be over and the markets will have lost their opportunity to cause trouble.
It has a degree of probability so high that it is all but inevitable.
Then I dont understand why it is only pro-conservatives who say it.
The FT came out for the Tories today (they've backed Lab for the last three elections).
You mean that for the last three elections they though labour would let them make most money, but now they reckon labour might get tough so they want to try the conservatives?
We now seem to be heading for a hung parliament which might be a Con minority government. A lot depends on exactly how the figures pan (is it just technically hung or truly hung?) but this is a very risky position. We need Con with a working majority to get us through this bad time.
Absolutely not. We need a national coalition government which enjoys the support of a majority of the population. The cons will be lucky to get 25%. It might be better for all three parties to agree the economic strategy, which ought to be possible. I would also like to see parliament resume its proper role, which is to say arguing out the merits issue by issue.
My view is that the best approach would be a pay freeze for all government workers. MPs need to lead by example by taking an immediate pay cut. But to swing that they need a united front. The conservatives will get slaughtered if they tried it by themselves. The big fear is that conservatives will be afraid to cut expenditure and refuse to raise taxes. Conservatives just do not do tax rises, which will be vital. They will be afraid to cut anything else because they have promised not to. On the other hand socialists have a free hand to tax, and potentially the high ground as the caring left to help enforce cuts.
And the key is get us through. The markets believe Con have the right instincts and are less likely to move against a Con govt,
Rubbish. Theyve had plenty of time to turn on Brown if they thought he was weak. the plain truth is they think he has been exactly right in his policies.
But if we vote back the guy who crashed the UK (as the markets see Brown)
But they dont. Some people may be foolish enough to think this, but I would presume bankers would have suficient understanding of economic realities to know this is far from the truth.
Democracy is a terrible system. Wish I could think of a better.
I can certainly think of a better one than what we have now. WHich isnt at all democratic. Once again, vote lib dem for democracy.
