What will happen to Spain?

D_Tully Tunnelrat

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Wrong, for years the US has been massively attacking Swiss banks too (and obviously the Swiss Franc).

Not in this forum, at least I have not seen it.

And let's be a bit more honest here, the Swiss banking system has aided some very nasty people (dictators,etc.) over the years with no moralism about where the money came from at all. Ditto during WWII.

The US gov. legal attack was not on the system, but on the missing, taxable money.
 

eurotop40

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Are the actual banksters amd financial analysts so moral? It seems that if they come from the anlgo-saxon system, which is the nasty author of all this crisis (dont forget!) they are holy and perfect.
 

midlifebear

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Not in this forum, at least I have not seen it.

And let's be a bit more honest here, the Swiss banking system has aided some very nasty people (dictators,etc.) over the years with no moralism about where the money came from at all. Ditto during WWII.

The US gov. legal attack was not on the system, but on the missing, taxable money.

First, I agree with you. But . . .

You are overlooking that the initial attacks by the US Government against Swiss banks were mounted because of the hoards of millions (some still claim billions) of money, gold, and jewelry sequestered away by Jews (an others) hoping to preserve some of their assets during WWII and which the Swiss banks were more than happy to take. And and then ignore or not be bothered with looking for the legal heirs to those accounts after the war. There are still millions in money and personal property that has yet to be returned to descendants of Holocaust victims who have legally applied for the receipt of what is left of their families' estates in Poland, Austria, Germany, Holland, France, Italy, and was deposited in Swiss banks. And the Swiss banks think nothing of saying "We've been honorable in meeting such requests" somehow thinking they are still above reproach. They aren't. :mad:
 
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dandelion

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Dandelion, the fact that the (serious) media is full of stories about the Euro demonstrates that it has a problem.
The serious media was full of stories about the failure of the Lisbon treaty and what a disaster this was going to be too, but it all just evaporated. The serious media is always full of disaster stories which come to nothing. I am quite disturbed sometimes to hear the BBC parroting some official announcement which patently has no truth whatsoever. It seems to me sometimes that news nowadays is following the wikipedia lead, that what is important is not truth but popular belief.

Sure Greece has a problem but no one has established that this is a problem for the euro and I have heard very many commentators saying that it is not. Whats more, it has not been established that Greece's problem would not be even worse if it was outside the euro as its currency would by now have collapsed. Or other eu countries might have attempted to prop it up, as happened with the pound a few years ago when it was supposed to be loosely coupled to the euro. In this current case foreign banks were unable to make loads of money betting against the drachma because it no longer exists. One small victory for real people against banks. oh the banks must hate the euro.

I don't agree that we can simply blame banks, speculators or regulators. I want my pension fund invested somewhere safe. I don't want it invested in Greek Euro-denominated bonds because the risk is higher than for German Euro-denominated bonds.
I dont understand your difficulty. As far as I know it is entirely up to the individual if they choose to buy greek debt or german debt. If a pension fund is so foolish that it has not heard about the crisis in Greek finances it deserves to go broke.

Millions of investors react in the same way with the result that Greece has to pay what is in effect a risk premium for Greek bonds.
Great. So what? The Greeks get what they asked for. Might make them (and others) realise they cannot get a free ride.

Already there are very large sums being bet against the chance of a Spanish default.
And this behaviour by banks helps world financial stability how?

I don't like the EU for all sorts of reasons - one of which is that it has been stupid enough to create a currency union without a prior or concurrent political union. This is the political equivalent of driving a car into a brick wall.
I think thats rather perverse. Nothing has gone wrong yet with the euro. Contrary to what you claim, it does not even fly in the face of established economic dogma about wealth distribution, because the EU is highly integrated in this respect whether you consider it a complete political union or not. Those areas in which union is greatest are specifically those concerning free movement of labour and capital.
 

Jason

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Whats more, it has not been established that Greece's problem would not be even worse if it was outside the euro as its currency would by now have collapsed. Or other eu countries might have attempted to prop it up, as happened with the pound a few years ago when it was supposed to be loosely coupled to the euro. In this current case foreign banks were unable to make loads of money betting against the drachma because it no longer exists. One small victory for real people against banks. oh the banks must hate the euro.

The what ifs of history are always difficult. If it hadn't gone into the Euro, the poor economic performance of Greece means it would have experienced steady devaluation of the drachma every year for the last few years (which has been the normal state of affairs for the drachma for a long time). This would have made it easier for Greek businesses to export, would have boosted tourism, and would have reduced the purchasing of imports by Greeks. There would have been significant increases in drachma terms in fuel prices and essential imports, and there would have been some inflation. But this all looks manageable.

I don't think a Greece still on the drachma would be looking at a budget defecit of anything like 13% because of maybe five years of steady depreciation, more inward investment, and higher levels of employment. Probably a defecit of half this level, which is bad but a different order of problem to 13%. Even if it were looking at 13% it would have three options:
- more devaluation (which would happen automatically)
- quantitative easing
- bilateral help, or help from the IMF.
Keeping the drachma would have fostered social cohesion in Greece (which is an enormous benefit). Right now Greece would have reasonably full employment, preserved public sector spending, nothing too dire with taxes. It is hard to see how historians looking at the venture into the Euro will see it as anything less than a catastrophe for Greece.

As this thread is actually on Spain, delete drachma and insert peseta and it is a similar position for Spain - just not quite as extreme.
 

eurotop40

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First, I agree with you. But . . .

You are overlooking that the initial attacks by the US Government against Swiss banks were mounted because of the hoards of millions (some still claim billions) of money, gold, and jewelry sequestered away by Jews (an others) hoping to preserve some of their assets during WWII and which the Swiss banks were more than happy to take. And and then ignore or not be bothered with looking for the legal heirs to those accounts after the war. There are still millions in money and personal property that has yet to be returned to descendants of Holocaust victims who have legally applied for the receipt of what is left of their families' estates in Poland, Austria, Germany, Holland, France, Italy, and was deposited in Swiss banks. And the Swiss banks think nothing of saying "We've been honorable in meeting such requests" somehow thinking they are still above reproach. They aren't. :mad:

We do not know what is really behind these attacks. The whole story with the holocaust survivors is probably a pretext, again to damage Swiss banking system. Personally, I have an antipathy for UBS and I am not defending it at all. On the other hand I know that if I lose my account number and I have no ID, my bank will give me no money, this is also to protect my assets deposited. So imagine that it is not so easy for a descendant to go to a bank counter in Zurich and say "I heard my grandfather had deposited a lot of money in this bank and now I want it." They have to give proofs and it did not always seemed to be the case.

Anyway, I am complaining about the double standard in the economy debate: Anglo-Saxon banksters are the most dubious figures in world finance and yet their press organizes campaigns denigrating other systems just to impose theirs (we see with what type of results). This is the typical way of rewriting economics the same way they had rewritten history (from the concentration camps in the Anglo-Boer war to the destruction of the "First Nation" in North America etc.).
 

eurotop40

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...

I don't think a Greece still on the drachma would be looking at a budget defecit of anything like 13% because of maybe five years of steady depreciation, more inward investment, and higher levels of employment. Probably a defecit of half this level, which is bad but a different order of problem to 13%. Even if it were looking at 13% it would have three options:
- more devaluation (which would happen automatically)
- quantitative easing
- bilateral help, or help from the IMF.
Keeping the drachma would have fostered social cohesion in Greece (which is an enormous benefit). Right now Greece would have reasonably full employment, preserved public sector spending, nothing too dire with taxes. It is hard to see how historians looking at the venture into the Euro will see it as anything less than a catastrophe for Greece.

As this thread is actually on Spain, delete drachma and insert peseta and it is a similar position for Spain - just not quite as extreme.

What are you talking about? Over a century of drachma has never brought full employment to Greece.
 

Jason

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Greece had a particularly rough ride in the 2WW, and subsequently hyperinflation and a civil war. In 1950 the economy of Greece was in a mess. The sixty years following are the years of the "Greek Economic Miracle" - the post-war drachma years were excellent for Greece. There was a blip in the 1980s, but overall 1950-2009 has seen some of the fastest growth anywhere in the world, certainly among the fastest in Europe. Unemployment in Greece has been mitigated by an enormous black economy where many who show up in the statistics as unemployed in fact weren't. In broad brush terms the Greek economy had an excellent post-war.

The Spanish economy has had a more mixed post-war. By the late 1990s many parts of Spain were hitting full employment - yet by 2009 Spain recorded a jaw dropping 17% unemployment. The youth unemployment figures are much higher and create a lost generation of young people either jobless or forced to take lowly paid dead-end jobs.

For Greece and Spain the big problems have come while they are part of the Euro. It is hard to see any way that the problems would have been bigger had they remained outside the Euro; rather it is hard to see any way that they would not have done better outside the Euro. Greece would not be facing austerity policies that will wreck its society. Spain would not be facing youth unemployment at levels which are doing so much damage. Portugal, Italy, Ireland, even Belgium and Austria, would be in better shape if they were not forced to pursue policies which don't fit their national needs. Germany and France are the big beneficiaries from the single market created by the Euro zone, but they have also had some downside from the Euro.

If we could go back in time the very people who launched the Euro two decades ago would not be supporting it. They thought political union would have been achieved by now and that therefore the Euro would be working. Yet for Greece, Spain and the rest of Club Med the Euro has already failed - failed their societies, and their people.

PS Cracow beats Belgrade! And Polish railways are pretty decent.
 

Jason

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I wonder if anyone can explain why it is that the UK£ is in freefall when "clearly" the Euro economy is fucked?

There are very severe problems with the UK economy, which is a reason why sterling has been falling for a while. It is not in free-fall, which is a term used specifically for a decline which seems bottomless and means that the currency is essentially valueless - but notwithstanding the falls are significant. Today's sharp fall has been caused by a poll in Saturday's Times which suggested a hung parliament as the result of the next election, and by the Pru deal which suggests future pound selling. The fall is part of a downward trend that we have been seeing for quite a while.

Sterling will continue to take a battering for a while. It is a problem, but it would be a worse problem if sterling couldn't devalue. Club Med and Ireland have all the problems the UK has but without the safety valve of devaluation. They are forced instead to "internal devlauation". So Ireland has cut public sector salaraies and social security benefits by 6% while increasing tax, and is now reducuing some public sector salaries by 20%. This may work, but it hurts. Spain is not making such cuts and instead is seeing unemployment at astronomic levels, with all the social problems that will cause. And poor Greece is still in denial.

There are plenty of risks for sterling and the UK economy. It could all go pear shaped. A double-dip recession in the UK is a possibility (more likely than not?) and we could be looking at yet more quantitative easing with the inflation that more QE will cause. Or we might get away with it. A lot depends on market confidence. We need an election and we need a clear winner, not a hung parliament. Basically either the Conservatives win or we get a hung parliament, and if the latter we will have the markets moving against the UK and all the economic chaos that will cause. Quite how anyone tells people "vote Conservative or become a lot poorer" I don't know, but that's the reality.

Club Med is already feeling the pain. Imagine being an 18 year old in Spain right now. Just left school, and not a hint of a job. 45% youth unemployment. Most of the rest in part-time employment, or working for relatives, or on training schemes. It's not a case of it might go wrong in Spain - it has already gone wrong. And there is next to nothing the Spanish government can actually do. Spain desperately needs to devalue. As does Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland. Germany probably needs to revalue (else they risk overheating).
 

dandelion

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Club Med and Ireland have all the problems the UK has but without the safety valve of devaluation. They are forced instead to "internal devlauation". So Ireland has cut public sector salaraies and social security benefits by 6% while increasing tax, and is now reducuing some public sector salaries by 20%. This may work, but it hurts.
Whereas devaluing your currency by the same aggregate amount, say about 25%, doesn't hurt because you have the same number of notes, just all the price tags are 25% bigger?

Spain is not making such cuts and instead is seeing unemployment at astronomic levels, with all the social problems that will cause.
Surely, their choice? Do we teach kiddies not to stick their hands in the fire?

And poor Greece is still in denial.
Given the alleged size of their black economy, I begin to wonder about the 'poor' bit. Perhaps it is more accurate to say the government run economy is being boycotted.

Quite how anyone tells people "vote Conservative or become a lot poorer" I don't know, but that's the reality.
Are we talking about already rich people here?

Club Med is already feeling the pain. Imagine being an 18 year old in Spain right now. Just left school, and not a hint of a job. 45% youth unemployment.
The solution here was to con people into taking out loans to pay for higher education. Soaked up quite a bit of unemployment.

Spain desperately needs to devalue.
No, Spain needs to get real about how much money the country is capable of earning, and possibly spread it about a bit more evenly.

Germany probably needs to revalue (else they risk overheating).
Or take life a bit more easily?
 

Jason

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Mainly in reply to Dandelion:

There is an Irish reply to someone asking for directions "if you want to get to there you don't start from here". This is the economic position that Club Med and Ireland are in. In order to get their economies into the position they should be in in order to be part of the Euro they shouldn't be where they are right now. If they were outside the Euro right now and applied to join they would be refused.

In theory internal devaluation will work. This is what Ireland is trying. If you can get your people behind you so that there is a broad consensus in favour then in theory it will work. Ireland might pull it off - lets hope they do. They certainly dserve a lot of credit for the reasonably broad consensus.

Greece lacks such a consensus - though anyway it is trying to do more than Ireland. I've just seen pictures on television of the latest riot. Nasty. There is massive discontent. Merkel has today denied the view expressed by some in her political coalition that Greece should sell off a few islands and the acropolis to reduce the debts. Basically the Greeks are being utterly humiliated. They don't have consensus for internal devaluation so either it will fail or it will be pushed through by putting the army on the streets to break strikes and protests. And if they are bailed out by Germany then de facto Germany will be running Greece. Yes of course devaluation of a currency makes a nation poorer, but it holds the nation together. A sharp fall in drachma values would have an impact on Greeks, but there wouldn't be riots on the streets. And a devalued drachma would boost the economy. A drachma economy would also fit better their enormous black market. It is no good saying that the black market in Greece shouldn't exist - the reality is that it does. Either we run all Eurozone economies with a comparable black economy (which will happen if more Eastern European economies are let in) or Greece has to go its own way. Basically Greece is the test case - is the Euro intending to be basically a DM or a soft grot from a corrupt economy?

Spain's approach is different. They are not launching a Greek-style austerity programme, and so unemployment is at astronomic levels. The reality for Spain is that the government could not carry through an austerity policy. There just isn't the popular appreciation of its need. Rather Spain awaits a change in public sentiment which will only happen when the markets move against Spain (by which time it will be too late). Spain is making the decisions it is making because it has no choice. Ditto Portugal and Italy.

"Vote Conservative or become a lot poorer". We are emphatically talking about the poorest in society. If the markets move against the UK and we are forced to introduce austerity measures we are looking at moves every bit as grim as in Ireland. They have set the benchmark. Pensions and benefits down by 6%. Public sector pay down by 6-20%. Private sector pay also down. Taxes up. The curious position is that we are in a position now where if we get a hung parliament the markets will move against the UK, without waiting to see how good or bad the economic policies might be. The correlation between the Conservative lead and the strength of sterling is very strong and has been for some months. Vote Conservatives for hope. Vote anyone else for inevitable poverty that will hit the poorest in our society hardest. Even if Brown et al have the best possible economic policies and Cameron et al the worst possible this situation will still apply - the markets will support Cameron and dump Brown. There's nothing democratic or fair about markets. And the ones who are set to get screwed are the poorest, the very ones who might work for bully Brown.

Have we all woken up to the horrible reality of Labour's privatisation of Higher Education? Under Thatcher and Major it was free - free places plus grants. Now after the Blair-Brown years we have students taking on very big debts. Labour has increased inequality, hurt the poorest, denied education to the poorest. Thatcher's higher educational policies were a socialist utopia compared with the Labour policy of kicking students in the balls (well this is lpsg!), the Labour policy where the poorest are screwed though the rich may flourish.

Spain cannot get real - the people are not behind austerity. And in the end why should they? They don't want to get real; they want to be Spanish. The relaxed Spanish spirit of doing everything tomorrow is a joke but one with a degree of truth in it. Spaniards like the siesta lifestyle, and good on them. As for the Germans, well we all know that when on holiday they get up before dawn to get the best spot by the pool. They are Germans - they don't want to take life a bit more easily. They like being Germans, which means being uptight and efficient and on time.
 

midlifebear

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LOL! Sorry for the digression, but it's sort of relevant (maybe). At least two Sunday's every month my friends and I "run" stairs at La Sagrada Familia for excercise. Sundays are best because when the church museum opens there is rarely a line of tourists from around the world waiting to crowd in. We've been doing this for more than 15 years. And we've added to our tradition various bets regarding the throngs of tourists. One is specifically about Germans.

A few weeks ago I made it to the first arch looking north over the city. I stopped to catch my breath. A robust German in his early 50s came out of nowhere. There was plenty of room for him and several others to pass me. But he couldn't help himself. His nature compelled him to order me, "You climb the next tower, cross the next arch and follow the stairs down." He wasn't being friendly. He was just being typically German. I yelled down the spiral of stairs in the first tower to announce, "I just received the first orders from a German tourist on how to see La Sagrada Familia!" I yelled this first in Spanish and then in English -- in English for the benefit of the Germans following the man who had barked his orders at me.

Jason, as much as I hate to admit it, the stereotype you describe regarding Germans is right on. LOL! They only seem to be relaxed when they are so drunk they cannot stand.
 
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deleted12830

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They don't want to get real; they want to be Spanish. The relaxed Spanish spirit of doing everything tomorrow is a joke but one with a degree of truth in it. Spaniards like the siesta lifestyle, and good on them.

Sorry, I have to go look for my maracas and poncho to dance flamenco and eat paella under a cactus...
 

Jason

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I thought of starting a thread "What will happen to Germany?" but suspect I might get lynched. So here goes posting on this thread.

An article in Wall Street Journal today says: "The country most likely to leave the euro zone is not Greece, Spain or Portugal—but Germany."
For the euro's laggards, would a devaluation help? - WSJ.com
 

dandelion

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Mainly in reply to Dandelion:
Have we all woken up to the horrible reality of Labour's privatisation of Higher Education? Under Thatcher and Major it was free - free places plus grants. Now after the Blair-Brown years we have students taking on very big debts. Labour has increased inequality, hurt the poorest, denied education to the poorest. Thatcher's higher educational policies were a socialist utopia compared with the Labour policy of kicking students in the balls (well this is lpsg!), the Labour policy where the poorest are screwed though the rich may flourish.

Are you a conservative supporter by any chance? You seem to be working to perfect the con's election manifesto.

Ok, your post was written earlier, but for the third time correcting this point about education, THATCHER (and major) were the people who started cutting state support for university students. The original grant was supposed to be equivalent to a working wage, so a working man with family could afford to go to university. The claimed intent of labour's position on higher education is to increase the nubers of people going to university. This they have done. Whether this is a good thing is quite another matter, and in the process they have refused to spend any more money... passing on the additional cost to the students. The conservatives have no plans to restore pre-Thatcher student grants or abolish tuition fees, so essentially they agree with the policy.

By and large I would say Labour has increased equality of education. Before, a much smaller number got a much better education and a larger number got as bad or worse education. This is circa prime minister Harold Wilson we are talking about. The conservatives, under Margaret Thatcher, endorsed these changes. Which is not say this change was good either.

There is an Irish reply to someone asking for directions "if you want to get to there you don't start from here". This is the economic position that Club Med and Ireland are in. In order to get their economies into the position they should be in in order to be part of the Euro they shouldn't be where they are right now. If they were outside the Euro right now and applied to join they would be refused.

In theory internal devaluation will work. This is what Ireland is trying. If you can get your people behind you so that there is a broad consensus in favour then in theory it will work. Ireland might pull it off - lets hope they do. They certainly dserve a lot of credit for the reasonably broad consensus.

Greece lacks such a consensus ......They don't have consensus for internal devaluation so either it will fail or it will be pushed through by putting the army on the streets to break strikes and protests. Yes of course devaluation of a currency makes a nation poorer, but it holds the nation together.
Britain was in exactly this same position in the 1970-1980s (roughly). debt out of control. wage strikes because wages were too low and unrealistic expectations. Devaluation caused inflation...which just led to even bigger wage rises. It solved nothing. The matter was only resolved when things became so bad that the public as a whole realised it had to stop. The fuss just now about the british airways strike is peanuts compared to what happened back them. We had candles at school because there were regular power cuts.

So it may be the sooner there gets to be a real mess in Greece the better. All this talk of devaluation and soft landings is useless if the Greeks do not use the breathing space to make changes. devaluation is not a solution, just a stopgap. It would gain nothing except give the government more time to rack up even bigger debts. Once a situation gets so bad it is hopeless, then the sooner there is a crisis which knocks sense into people, the better. The day the government stops paying because it has run out of money, will be the day people agree to changes. That will be the time for emergency loans once they agree to the way out.

The whole business did enormous damage to british industry, the current restored affluence of the country is probably only due to windfall north sea oil. But all the time it went on just made matters worse.

Spain's approach is different. They are not launching a Greek-style austerity programme, and so unemployment is at astronomic levels. The reality for Spain is that the government could not carry through an austerity policy. There just isn't the popular appreciation of its need. Rather Spain awaits a change in public sentiment which will only happen when the markets move against Spain (by which time it will be too late). Spain is making the decisions it is making because it has no choice. Ditto Portugal and Italy.
We seem to have a fundamentally different approach. You say 'devalue' and the market will automatically correct. I say 'that never worked for us'. Until whichever country accepts that it is paying itself too much, nothing can be done. The reality is that countries need to adjust to the real world as is, as represented by the euro. They have to adapt to the euro, not the euro adapting to them. The euro is not outrageously overvalued. It stands at a reasonable rate for a modern european country which aspires to remain a modern european country. Once they do this, in the long run they will be better off.

"Vote Conservative or become a lot poorer".... Vote Conservatives for hope. Vote anyone else for inevitable poverty that will hit the poorest in our society hardest.
Did you paste this from a draft speech? Ok, maybe thats a bit unfair but I don't go on about how much better this country would be if the lib dems win the next election (and it would!). If you want to debate a point don't talk in slogans?

Even if Brown et al have the best possible economic policies and Cameron et al the worst possible this situation will still apply - the markets will support Cameron and dump Brown.
here you go again. Thats bull. If the markets prefer Cameron that is only because they think they will make more money with him in charge. I don't see that as a good reason to go for Cameron.

There's nothing democratic or fair about markets. And the ones who are set to get screwed are the poorest, the very ones who might work for bully Brown.
So Cameron is proposing a major boost in house building and restoration of council house construction? That is a clearcut way of helping the poor (aside from also rescuing the economy).

Spain cannot get real - the people are not behind austerity. And in the end why should they?
well of course its their funeral, not ours. But a siesta lifestyle sound to me it is one which accepts a lower standard of living for a quieter life. Thats what I do.:smile: