What will happen to Spain?

Jason

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Agreed your last sentence.

Spain et al want a certain siesta life style and see a lower standard of living as a reasonable trade off.

Germany et al want a driven lifestyle and expect a higher standard of living as a reward for their industry.

For the Euro to work Club Med has to get more like Germany and Germany more like Club Med. We need siestas in Berlin and unpaid overtime in Madrid.
 

D_Tully Tunnelrat

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For the Euro to work Club Med has to get more like Germany and Germany more like Club Med. We need siestas in Berlin and unpaid overtime in Madrid.

Love the idea, but the Germans need better cuisine in order to make this work. I can't imagine a siesta after wurst, and sauerkraut. The thought alone gives me nightmares.
 

dandelion

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Spain et al want a certain siesta life style and see a lower standard of living as a reasonable trade off.

Germany et al want a driven lifestyle and expect a higher standard of living as a reward for their industry.

For the Euro to work Club Med has to get more like Germany and Germany more like Club Med. We need siestas in Berlin and unpaid overtime in Madrid.

Afraid I don't see it. work half as long and get half as much. What does the euro have to do with that?
 

dandelion

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Originally Posted by dandelion
Afraid I don't see it. work half as long and get half as much. What does the euro have to do with that?


It's all about relative value.
Should every employee in a company earn the same amount?

No, still dont understand. in answer to your question, no, but differentials eg such as currently in the UK are excessive. What does that have to do with which currency you use?
 

midlifebear

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You all know, of course, the reason for a siesta? Maybe not, since you UK folks seem to be imprisioned in the cloudy, dark, and rainy cold. Most of the Iberian Peninsula as well as most countries on the Mediterranean, have long spring, summers and autumns when it is common for the temperature to hit an easy 40+ degrees by 13:00. So, for centuries most businesses have closed down between 14:00 and 18:00 in the afternoon, because no one was out in the streets shopping because of the heat. This "quaint" custom still exists not just to "bother" the Northern European traveler. It also saves a ton of electricity while the stores and businesses are closed. And the same reasoning is why, in most Central and South American countries stores and businesses are closed during similar hours during the day.

I'm afraid the "siesta lifestyle" everyone likes to toss about, is being used to deride countries (the PIGS perhaps?) as their work forces being lazy. That's a bit unfair. A good example is Spain, where despite a worker's rights law is in place, most folks work 10 hour days six days a week. That's a standard 60-hour work week. What's the work week in Germany or the UK?
 

Drifterwood

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No, still dont understand. in answer to your question, no, but differentials eg such as currently in the UK are excessive. What does that have to do with which currency you use?

Greeks, Spaniards and others can't afford the German lifestyle, but that is the aim of the Union and the currency is the same. Many prices have gone up including housing, but the earning capability hasn't, leaving many in dire straits.

For me, you either go full out Federalist Europe, or you just have a trading group. Half way can be the worst of both worlds, especially when there is powerful vested interest to see it fail.
 

Jason

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For me, you either go full out Federalist Europe, or you just have a trading group. Half way can be the worst of both worlds, especially when there is powerful vested interest to see it fail.

Something very odd going on here. That's twice in a day I find myself in full agreement with Drifterwood!
 
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I'm afraid the "siesta lifestyle" everyone likes to toss about, is being used to deride countries (the PIGS perhaps?) as their work forces being lazy. That's a bit unfair. A good example is Spain, where despite a worker's rights law is in place, most folks work 10 hour days six days a week. That's a standard 60-hour work week. What's the work week in Germany or the UK?
Doesnt the EU working-time directive limit it to 35 hrs per week, tho?
As far as I know, the UK is one of the only countries with an opt out that allows us to work upto 48 hrs per week for extended periods. (Sorry to be picky, Midlife :redface:).

Jase/Drifter: I agree! I vote for trading group. :wink:
 

dandelion

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Greeks, Spaniards and others can't afford the German lifestyle, but that is the aim of the Union and the currency is the same. Many prices have gone up including housing, but the earning capability hasn't, leaving many in dire straits.

For me, you either go full out Federalist Europe, or you just have a trading group. Half way can be the worst of both worlds, especially when there is powerful vested interest to see it fail.

Im puzzled.
First, why have house prices gone up if earnings havnt?

Next, what does whatever currency you happen to be using have to do with it?

Third, why should wealth be spread equally within the EU? It certainly isnt within the UK.
 

Drifterwood

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Im puzzled.
First, why have house prices gone up if earnings havnt?

Next, what does whatever currency you happen to be using have to do with it?

Third, why should wealth be spread equally within the EU? It certainly isnt within the UK.

I think that you have answered your own question.

What would happen to Wales if suddenly we had the same cost of living as the South East? Especially the hideous house price question? Increases in the cost of living have to be matched by a real ability to earn more. You can't have the German quality of life and cost of living without the real means to earn it. A single currency has exacerbated this process. It isn't cheap to go to Greece anymore.

All this debt is the overspend to try to keep up with the Jones'. What has everyone borrowed against, is it worth it and can you pay it back?
 

dandelion

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I think that you have answered your own question.

What would happen to Wales if suddenly we had the same cost of living as the South East? Especially the hideous house price question? Increases in the cost of living have to be matched by a real ability to earn more. You can't have the German quality of life and cost of living without the real means to earn it. A single currency has exacerbated this process. It isn't cheap to go to Greece anymore.

All this debt is the overspend to try to keep up with the Jones'. What has everyone borrowed against, is it worth it and can you pay it back?

In the UK we have a real problem about housing, because no one is allowed to build. I had the impression the housing market in Spain was a lot more sensible. Prices will only go through the roof if you aren't allowed to build new roofs. Even if there is a housing shortage you are still permitted to make rules banning second home ownership thus restricting competition for said properties.

Affluent foreigners coming to visit on holidays is potentially a source of income. What were the other reasons pushing up cost of living? I dont know how the situation was when Spain joined the Euro but obviosuly the relative exchange rate hasnt deteriorated against them or any other country since then because its now locked.

Are you saying mediterranean countries simply don't earn as much as the Germans but have been spending as much so are in trouble? Sounds about right, but what does that really have to do with being EU members or using a single currency? Thats just plain stupidity, tring to spend as much as your rich neighbour, nothing to do with the structural economic situation. Until the mindset changes no alteration, such as devaluation or getting foreign aid, could help.

The original point was blaming a bad economy on the euro and eu, but im still waiting for the link to be explained.
 

midlifebear

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Well, speaking of What Will Happen to Spain, I own three pisos in Barcelona. I live in one of them in La Gracia and rent out the other two in l'exiample. The two I rent are 400 square meters, 4 bedrooms, full gourmet kitchens, maids quarters 3 full baths with showers and bidets, 1/2 bath, formal dining rooms, large living rooms, and libraries that have been turned into/library entertainment rooms. They are fully furnished and included a weekly housekeeper. In addition, they both have formal foyers. They are not cheap. I tend to have groups of 4 to 6 Brits or Germans rent them for three to six months. And I'm booked into September 2011, including cash deposits.

When I first bought these apartments they cost about $200,000 US. The Euro was about .86 to the US Dollar. Now, of course, the fate of the USA Dollar has changed as well as the Euro. And housing is even tighter that ever. The reason most Spaniards live with their parents until they are 40, or even continue to live with their parents after marriage, is because of a severe housing shortage. The city government does subsidize the construction of modern flats, but the qualification process to purchase or just get a hipoteca (mortgage) is a long and usually difficult process. At least half of the property transactions that take place in the city are done in cash without the support of a one of the many hungry banks.

Add to the above realities, the city has some serious building codes. Yeah, there are some towers hither and yon about Barcelona, but not many. One of the things that makes BCN a travel destination is not just the few buildings and public spaces built by Gaudi, but the entire city still has the pink/tan terracotta (sp?) look of a Mediterranean city. So, there are serious height restrictions. And if a new chunk of apartments are going to be modern, the city suggests the architects go out of their way to make them WAY modern and add some positive aesthetic to the neighborhood that may have been lost (or not existed) when older structures were torn down for new building space -- and the same height as the original buildings.

Everyone complains, but I doubt you'll find a city population more proud of their city than the folks who live in BCN. And there has been a recent out-migration into the canyons to the north, north east where young families can actually afford to buy a home. Again, the restrictions are somewhat tough. If any of you have bothered to travel outside of Barcelona you'll remember that three sides are protected by forests, the lungs of the city. And the fourth side is the port, public beaches, and energy plants to the north. So all of those "scenic" little pueblos with rock cottages are being bought up and renovated into homes. They may look like 200 year-old farmhouses, but the interiors are remarkable revised uses of space with all modern amenities.

There is always the possibility of BCN becoming just another place full of rich people, but that has always been part of the city's fate. No one really knows how many billions of Euros are floating in the City's harbour housing mostly permanent residents from other countries.

Maybe if the UK government could dig out a giant lake in the middle or to the side of Birmingham and fill it with multi-million£ yachts?

My point is, it seems the problem with housing in the UK isn't something that follows an an agreed upon and efficient set of guidelines. Maybe I'm wrong. But the last thing anyone in Barcelona wants to do is "go build out in the farm country." Not a good idea. Instead, they are reusing every centimeter of dirt that already exists within the city.

Amusingly, as the Euro scares you folks in the UK, the local economies seem to be doing rather well down here. Although the price of a piso similar to the ones I own have risen in ten+ years from $200,000 to about 3,000,000€. Not such a good thing for young families, but there is a clot of new "affordable" family apartments being built up the street -- where the facade matches and gives homage to -- the rest of the architecture in the neighborhood. But they cost about 500,000€ and are barely 50 square meters.

Anyway, what I had intended to sum up in 20 words or less is Spain has seen much worse than the UK's worry about what will happen to the Euro. And Spain has always survived.After all, while the UK was enjoying the 50s. 60s, and early 780s, Spaniards were dealing with the continued "austerity" of Franco "the friendly despot." And catalanes were being executed for speaking their native language in public. If anyone knows how to implement austerity measures, it's Spain. Do Brits keep stale bread around or do they throw it away? Spaniards never throw bread away. They turn it into croutons. Even better, they slice it, rub it with garlic and spread a bit of tomato over it. Tasty.

The only Spaniards I've ever met who've wanted to live in the UK have all been in their teens and early 20s because of the British music scene. After all, Spanish rock and roll basically sucks like a Hoover. So, who can blame them? But I don't mean to write all of this crap (which it most certainly is) just to disparage the UK. Seems like you folks have some serious problems with your own currency.

Just pretend the glass is half full. :smile:
 
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Drifterwood

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The original point was blaming a bad economy on the euro and eu, but im still waiting for the link to be explained.

You take a point in time and say OK, now we exchange at this rate. This works if the countrties subsequently grow and or retract at the same speed. Ten years of five percent disparity gives a gap of double.

Club Med has tried to keep up, but can't, they have overspent in so doing and now have to face the consequences. They were supposed to stay within fiscal guidelines, Greece certainlty didn't.

In the old days, if you couldn't keep up, you devalued, within the Euro you can't, unless you have a full Federalist system like the US.
 

Jason

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Im puzzled.
First, why have house prices gone up if earnings havnt?

Next, what does whatever currency you happen to be using have to do with it?

Third, why should wealth be spread equally within the EU? It certainly isnt within the UK.


1) Average salary is just one factor which affects demand for property and therefore property prices. Availability of credit also affects demand. This isn't just availability of credit to individuals, but also availability of credit to countries. The supply side also has to be remembered. In the UK average property has tended to be between 3 and 5 times average salary (a very big range which demonstrates the inadequacy of the wage-price link). It is also possible to get a de-coupling of the wage-price link, well recorded elsewhere and just possibly now happening in the UK.

2) An impact of the Euro on Club Med has been that more credit has been available within the economies than would have been the case had they retained national currencies. And they borrowed up to the hilt and a bit more. With their own currencies there would have been some devaluation quite a while ago, which would have taken the heat out of the situation. It is the Euro which has enabled the property price boom to happen in Club Med and Ireland. Markets are sticky in making the necessary correction (eg property prices in Ireland and Spain are still very high, even though they've come down).

3) A single currency may come under strain when the wealth and prosperity of different parts of the territory it serves are markedly different. There are certainly stresses and strains within the UK system, andthe discrepancies are much greater within the EU - but this isn't the key problem. The EU has an even bigger problem in terms of different fiscal policies, different social policies, different tax systems and even different social customs. It is a basic tenet of economics that currency union and fiscal union go hand in hand. The UK can reasonably make a single currency work but Economics 101 suggests that the EU shouldn't be able to make the Euro work without a fiscal union
 

midlifebear

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Doesnt the EU working-time directive limit it to 35 hrs per week, tho?
As far as I know, the UK is one of the only countries with an opt out that allows us to work upto 48 hrs per week for extended periods. (Sorry to be picky, Midlife :redface:).

Jase/Drifter: I agree! I vote for trading group. :wink:

That is something that I do not know about. But most of my friends who still work have two jobs. I would imagine that time directive is per job, not for all your jobs. I'll have to check into that. I know The Squeeze is certainly working more than 50 hours a week at the moment.

But the original reason for a siesta (and not just in Europe, but throughout the world, especially in equatorial countries) is because it's just to damn hot to do anything more than eat and rest during the hottest hours of the day. :smile:

I'm sure you're all familiar about wild dogs and Englishman. :biggrin1:
 

dandelion

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You take a point in time and say OK, now we exchange at this rate. This works if the countrties subsequently grow and or retract at the same speed. Ten years of five percent disparity gives a gap of double.

Club Med has tried to keep up, but can't, they have overspent in so doing and now have to face the consequences. They were supposed to stay within fiscal guidelines, Greece certainlty didn't.

In the old days, if you couldn't keep up, you devalued, within the Euro you can't, unless you have a full Federalist system like the US.

Devaluation is just a way of taking value out of peoples pockets and cutting their wages, another form of taxation. In the end it makes little difference to how much value they will own once the current problem is sorted. It does not guarantee an economy can stabilise until the people accept the lower standard of living it brings.

What I don't understand is how Wales manages to survive in the UK despite a falling average income compared to SE England, yet Spain can't live with a richer neighbour. It makes no sense to me. You seem to be saying that while people individually are able to undertsand that they cant afford a big house with pool like their mate who went off to be a banker in London, countries are unable to accept richer neighbours.
 

dandelion

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... This isn't just availability of credit to individuals, but also availability of credit to countries. The supply side also has to be remembered....An impact of the Euro on Club Med has been that more credit has been available within the economies than would have been the case had they retained national currencies.
In the UK money supply hasnt been a problem despite not being in the euro.

With their own currencies there would have been some devaluation quite a while ago, which would have taken the heat out of the situation.
hasnt happened here, and quite homestly I dont believe it would have happened there either before the teeny matter of the world slump.


It is the Euro which has enabled the property price boom to happen in Club Med and Ireland.
Nonsense. As I said, we had a similar boom without the euro. Ireland had a boom before the euro existed. Joining the EU caused the boom in Ireland, and I seem to recalll also in Spain. Someone from Portugal was telling me about the EU induced boom in about 1990? Joining the EU has always caused a boom for relatively poor countries. Nothing to do with the euro per se. Interesting to speculate that it did exactly the same for the UK, unless youre saying our economic recovery was simply a coincidence?

Markets are sticky in making the necessary correction (eg property prices in Ireland and Spain are still very high, even though they've come down).[ /QUOTE]
Very sticky. people do not choose to realise losses.

3) A single currency may come under strain when the wealth and prosperity of different parts of the territory it serves are markedly different. There are certainly stresses and strains within the UK system, andthe discrepancies are much greater within the EU - but this isn't the key problem. The EU has an even bigger problem in terms of different fiscal policies, different social policies, different tax systems and even different social customs. It is a basic tenet of economics that currency union and fiscal union go hand in hand. The UK can reasonably make a single currency work but Economics 101 suggests that the EU shouldn't be able to make the Euro work without a fiscal union
well I still recall that reference you once gave about the failed soviet monetary union, which in passing explained why the euro would work. What did you think of his argument? Basically he said the EU does already have a sufficient fiscal union. We have already had the debate that historically widespread monetary unions seem to have survived quite well until external factors intervened. Historically currency union was often achievd via the value of gold, which fluctuated markedly because people could just dig it out of thr ground. The euro is a much better currency unit because it is more stable. The euro is not the problem here. It changes the alternatives of what can be done, but it did not cause this problem. Excessive and unsustainable expenditure will inevitably destroy any government eventually.

I'm sure you're all familiar about wild dogs and Englishman. :biggrin1:
Thats Mad dogs:biggrin1::biggrin1: