What will happen?

Where will we be?

  • The US will have rebounded

    Votes: 2 18.2%
  • Approaching 20% unemplyment

    Votes: 2 18.2%
  • The greatest depression the US has ever known

    Votes: 1 9.1%
  • Not much worse than we are now

    Votes: 5 45.5%
  • Brilliant glimpses of recovery seen everywhere

    Votes: 1 9.1%

  • Total voters
    11

Notaguru2

Experimental Member
Joined
May 20, 2008
Posts
1,519
Media
0
Likes
10
Points
123
Location
Charleston, SC
Sexuality
100% Straight, 0% Gay
Gender
Male
Let's see... here's where the US is as we speak:

1. Admission from Fed that we've been in a recession since Dec 2007.

2. The Fed cut interest rates AGAIN today. The target interest rate is now 0% - .25%! Can we really make money this way?

3. Evidence of deflation entering into the fray. No one believed we were in a recession, but they better be weary of the deflationary signs.

4. Banking bailout

5. Auto bailout (they'll still wind up getting something)

6. $50B ponzi scheme right under the nose of the SEC. More losses for banks.

7. Relative retail sales at its lowest in more than a generation.

8. On going military support in Iraq

9. A new afghan offensive coming

10. Double digit unemployment foretold of this week

So, I ask... where do you think we'll be this time next year?
 

faceking

Cherished Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2004
Posts
7,426
Media
6
Likes
277
Points
208
Location
Mavs, NOR * CAL
Sexuality
100% Straight, 0% Gay
Gender
Male
Let's see... here's where the US is as we speak:

1. Admission from Fed that we've been in a recession since Dec 2007.


Um... for one... do you have a clue on how to calculate/determine recession...? Pathetic to throw out "admission" from the Fed. Numbers are numbers... armchair economists can speculate we are (and/or were in a recession), but it's a simple formula... quit trying to lay some Fed or FOMC conspiracy crap. Seriously.
 

faceking

Cherished Member
Joined
Nov 14, 2004
Posts
7,426
Media
6
Likes
277
Points
208
Location
Mavs, NOR * CAL
Sexuality
100% Straight, 0% Gay
Gender
Male
6. $50B ponzi scheme right under the nose of the SEC. More losses for banks.

Peanuts in terms of what happened, and how it happened. This area is one of the most unsupervised of the SEC realm, and for good reason.

Last I checked... (sorry for the 99.996% of LPSG who isn't), but hey, if you are an accredited investor you musta been smart enough to be worth $1M with $200k/yearly income to jump into an unregulated investment instrument seeking exuberant returns and instead got anal'd w/ no lube and now are boohooey to want the SIPC to cover them, cause AIG and GM got saved...

I've dived into shit like this... and lost everything, with a couple home runs. That is how it works. Sorry ppl laid a lot down on this. You don't cry foul when the refs blow the call on a Super Bowl PI call. These aren't retirement accounts of $40K.

horseshit.. typical liberal "gov't come save me shit... " we knew there was a hurricane risk, now save us. bullshit.
 

Notaguru2

Experimental Member
Joined
May 20, 2008
Posts
1,519
Media
0
Likes
10
Points
123
Location
Charleston, SC
Sexuality
100% Straight, 0% Gay
Gender
Male
Um... for one... do you have a clue on how to calculate/determine recession...? Pathetic to throw out "admission" from the Fed. Numbers are numbers... armchair economists can speculate we are (and/or were in a recession), but it's a simple formula... quit trying to lay some Fed or FOMC conspiracy crap. Seriously.

Yes, its based on GDP.
 

Notaguru2

Experimental Member
Joined
May 20, 2008
Posts
1,519
Media
0
Likes
10
Points
123
Location
Charleston, SC
Sexuality
100% Straight, 0% Gay
Gender
Male
Peanuts in terms of what happened, and how it happened. This area is one of the most unsupervised of the SEC realm, and for good reason.

Last I checked... (sorry for the 99.996% of LPSG who isn't), but hey, if you are an accredited investor you musta been smart enough to be worth $1M with $200k/yearly income to jump into an unregulated investment instrument seeking exuberant returns and instead got anal'd w/ no lube and now are boohooey to want the SIPC to cover them, cause AIG and GM got saved...

I've dived into shit like this... and lost everything, with a couple home runs. That is how it works. Sorry ppl laid a lot down on this. You don't cry foul when the refs blow the call on a Super Bowl PI call. These aren't retirement accounts of $40K.

horseshit.. typical liberal "gov't come save me shit... " we knew there was a hurricane risk, now save us. bullshit.


Who are you angry with? I didn't make this shit up. You better wake up.
 

D_Diesel Oyl

Sexy Member
Joined
Nov 18, 2008
Posts
588
Media
0
Likes
52
Points
103
I think this whole thing now is about confidence. If the average American is scared they will lose their job, they are not going to buy a lot of stuff. We are a consumer-driven economy, thus we are in for some tough shit. And I don't know what pops us out of it.

A lot of businesses are holding on until after Christmas/New Years, then they will start seriously reorganizing, laying off, etc.

I'm glad I have a job.
 

Notaguru2

Experimental Member
Joined
May 20, 2008
Posts
1,519
Media
0
Likes
10
Points
123
Location
Charleston, SC
Sexuality
100% Straight, 0% Gay
Gender
Male
I'm glad I have a job.

Here's a sign of the times; I live in a modest sized city, Knoxville, TN and it's very conservative. We've always viewed our city as one that buffers itself from what happens nationally. We've always seemed to take care of ourselves. Even 9/11 didn't have an economic impact on us. Fast forward...

Once a week now, our local talk radio show that syndicates Limbaugh, Hannity, etc. started having a call-in show for employers that have jobs available. This is a clear sign that jobs are being lost and gainful employment even tougher to come by.
 

B_starinvestor

Experimental Member
Joined
Mar 1, 2006
Posts
4,383
Media
0
Likes
3
Points
183
Location
Midwest
Sexuality
100% Straight, 0% Gay
Gender
Male
Let's see... here's where the US is as we speak:

1. Admission from Fed that we've been in a recession since Dec 2007.
There really isn't any way to know you are in a recession until you are already over 2 quarters in...by definition.

2. The Fed cut interest rates AGAIN today. The target interest rate is now 0% - .25%! Can we really make money this way?
I think you're referring to Fed Funds. This just shows that they are running out of tools to use. This cut doesn't help the consumer much.

3. Evidence of deflation entering into the fray. No one believed we were in a recession, but they better be weary of the deflationary signs.
It will probably turn back into inflation when we start printing money.

4. Banking bailout
This was a smoke and mirrors show really. Shored up the banks, but they haven't loosened credit at all. Zero. America now has a bunch of preferred stock in banks. Yippitteefuckingdooda.


5. Auto bailout (they'll still wind up getting something)
. Boy, they really need to go through B/K. They can get out of thier associations, etc, reorganize their labor force.

6. $50B ponzi scheme right under the nose of the SEC. More losses for banks.

A real tragedy for his clients. Won't hurt anybody else.

7. Relative retail sales at its lowest in more than a generation.
It'll get worse.

8. On going military support in Iraq

9. A new afghan offensive coming

More $$

10. Double digit unemployment foretold of this week

So, I ask... where do you think we'll be this time next year?


Gonna be ugly for a while. Americans will have a major shift....from living on debt....to paying cash for items. Long term, it will give us a more fundamentally solid economy.

My guess...this time next year we'll be coming out of this nasty storm. To those in the market for a home...congrats - the cheapest real estate you will ever see in your lifetimes.