When did america start to decline?

wallyj84

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I think we can all agree that America is in decline. The type of decline can be argued, but at this point the idea that the US are in some kind of decline is undeniable.

My question to you guys is when did it start and what kind of decline is it? Is it just a relative decline or is America in a full decline?
 
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TexanStar

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at this point the idea that the US are in some kind of decline is undeniable.

Jeeze, man.

4IuWaZv.gif


Anyways, I think this kind of stuff only works in relation to other stuff and I think what you see is a lot of other countries, whether by way of the formation of the European Union or whatever, increasing the impact of their own cultural influence, economic impact, etc.

Setting aside the Trump Presidency (I don't know what the fuck this is... Fascism 2 Electric Boogaloo or something), I don't really feel like the US is declining, I just feel like others are doing a better job of keeping up and that's not a bad thing.
 
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I think we can all agree that America is in decline. The type of decline can be argued, but at this point the idea that the US are in some kind of decline is undeniable.

My question to you guys is when did it start and what kind of decline is it? Is it just a relative decline or is America in a full decline?
I would say it started in the 1970s. The oil crisis was the ignition. Since then the economical development declined. New growth had to be created. This happened under Reagan... the result was a growth that didn't create jobs and where only the income of the wealthy increase.

To compensate the income stagnation the USA begun to import consume goods (mainly electric gadgets, tools, and toys) from Asia.
This had two effects:
1. Out sourcing became a trend. New technologies got produced abroad and new jobs didn't got created.
2. The demand of consume goods created a massive economical growth in Asia and the use of new technologies made the growth sustainable. Now we reached a point where it becomes clear that Asia has an advantage in many parts of new economies.


So, the start was in the 1970s. The tipping point is very close, where Asia will become more dominant that the USA and Europe combined.

Till now we can talk about a relative decline. The USA is still growing and developing, but others are way faster.
If we will see a real decline will tell the next economical crash.
 

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So, the start was in the 1970s. The tipping point is very close, where Asia will become more dominant that the USA and Europe combined.

In how many years do you think it would be better to live in China than it is to live in USA or Germany?

5 years?
10 years?
20 years?
40 years?
100 years?

Or never (figuratively speaking) because China's an ultra oppressive shithole regardless of what their GDP looks like.
 

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In how many years do you think it would be better to live in China than it is to live in USA or Germany?

5 years?
10 years?
20 years?
40 years?
100 years?

Or never (figuratively speaking) because China's an ultra oppressive shithole regardless of what their GDP looks like.
I guess your last sentence is the important part... If you only care for income and wealth it might be possible that the Chinese middle classe could become more wealthy than the USA within the next 20 or 40 years. This would be the moment you should move to China. If you care for individual freedoms you might never move to China. The current developments are more than just worrying.

But all these predictions should be handled with care... all we do is to look at the past and try to predict what will happen.
The problem is, no one knows how the world economy will develop the next big crash.
Will Europe and the USA recover like they did after the great depression, or will the ultimately lose connection to the development of the new technologies?

How will China handle the next crisis? The guarantee for political and social stability is growing wealth for the majority of the population, but for every future generation. Should China run in to a recession, or even a period of inflation this peace could be threatened. The last time China had years of high inflation had its final in the demonstrations of 1989...

So, if China can handle the next crisis and the USA as well it will take us more like 40 years before Chinese people become more wealthy than Americans - or China becomes more powerful.
If the USA can't recover it will take more like 20 years.
Shouldn't China recover we still have nations like S.Korea who could become technological leaders.
 

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I guess your last sentence is the important part... If you only care for income and wealth it might be possible that the Chinese middle classe could become more wealthy than the USA within the next 20 or 40 years. This would be the moment you should move to China. If you care for individual freedoms you might never move to China. The current developments are more than just worrying.

But all these predictions should be handled with care... all we do is to look at the past and try to predict what will happen.
The problem is, no one knows how the world economy will develop the next big crash.
Will Europe and the USA recover like they did after the great depression, or will the ultimately lose connection to the development of the new technologies?

How will China handle the next crisis? The guarantee for political and social stability is growing wealth for the majority of the population, but for every future generation. Should China run in to a recession, or even a period of inflation this peace could be threatened. The last time China had years of high inflation had its final in the demonstrations of 1989...

So, if China cam handle the next crisis and the USA as well it will take us more like 40 years before Chinese people become more wealthy than Americans - or China becomes more powerful.
If the USA can't recover it will take more like 20 years.
Shouldn't China recover will still have nations like S.Korea who could become technological leaders.

I don't only care for income and wealth.
 
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Drifterwood

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In how many years do you think it would be better to live in China than it is to live in USA or Germany?

5 years?
10 years?
20 years?
40 years?
100 years?

Or never (figuratively speaking) because China's an ultra oppressive shithole regardless of what their GDP looks like.

If you had asked me ten years ago, I would probably have said the USA, now Germany without much of a second thought.

Have you ever been to China?
 

wallyj84

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Jeeze, man.

4IuWaZv.gif


Anyways, I think this kind of stuff only works in relation to other stuff and I think what you see is a lot of other countries, whether by way of the formation of the European Union or whatever, increasing the impact of their own cultural influence, economic impact, etc.

Setting aside the Trump Presidency (I don't know what the fuck this is... Fascism 2 Electric Boogaloo or something), I don't really feel like the US is declining, I just feel like others are doing a better job of keeping up and that's not a bad thing.

I would argue that what you're describing is a relative decline. Which is, IMO, the best case scenario for the USA.
 

wallyj84

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I would say it started in the 1970s. The oil crisis was the ignition. Since then the economical development declined. New growth had to be created. This happened under Reagan... the result was a growth that didn't create jobs and where only the income of the wealthy increase.

To compensate the income stagnation the USA begun to import consume goods (mainly electric gadgets, tools, and toys) from Asia.
This had two effects:
1. Out sourcing became a trend. New technologies got produced abroad and new jobs didn't got created.
2. The demand of consume goods created a massive economical growth in Asia and the use of new technologies made the growth sustainable. Now we reached a point where it becomes clear that Asia has an advantage in many parts of new economies.


So, the start was in the 1970s. The tipping point is very close, where Asia will become more dominant that the USA and Europe combined.

Till now we can talk about a relative decline. The USA is still growing and developing, but others are way faster.
If we will see a real decline will tell the next economical crash.

Interesting perspective. But I disagree and here is why. In the coming decades we had another huge economic boom and the Soviet Union fell leaving the USA as the world's sole super power. Things might have been bad in the 70s but they got better and we were arguable better off in the following decades.
 

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Interesting perspective. But I disagree and here is why. In the coming decades we had another huge economic boom and the Soviet Union fell leaving the USA as the world's sole super power. Things might have been bad in the 70s but they got better and we were arguable better off in the following decades.
I think the Soviet Union backs my position.
Since the end of the 1970 we had significant changes in the long term growth trend.
The Soviet Union wasn't able to compensate the lower growth and in combination with the already low growth created massive problems they couldn't handle.
The USA together with Britain, in parts rest of Europe a few years later, deregulated the finance industry and lowered tax for the wealthy. This created a huge increase for the higher income and a new growth in the finance industry. - Japan tried another way and ended in a 20 years recession.
On the other hand general incomes stagnated and China started it's journey of 40 years growth higher than 6% per year - till now.

The USA may have survived the Soviet Union, but since then they have lost more and more of their advantage to China.

Every economy that is close connected with the American one had to struggle since the 1980s.
 
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Drifterwood

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"Would you ever go to China?" would be a better question, because the answer is no.

Would love to visit Japan some day, but I would not like to set foot in China.

Chinese culture is one of the oldest and most remarkable in human history. Within the timeframes of that culture, the current situation is, with all due respect, a fart on the freeway, only the latest attempt to achieve balance. Perhaps this could still become the People's Dynasty.

This thread is about the US, though relevant to that is the relative growth of China. I have witnessed most of it first hand. It is a remarkable story and much of it has been very positive. I would recommend visiting China, you won't experience anything like it elsewhere in your lifetime.
 

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Chinese culture is one of the oldest and most remarkable in human history. Within the timeframes of that culture, the current situation is, with all due respect, a fart on the freeway, only the latest attempt to achieve balance.

But your life and mine are also farts on the freeway--farts that just happen to coincide with the current situation in China. So I can understand TexanStar's reluctance to visit.