When do YOU think the economy will turn around?

Discussion in 'Et Cetera, Et Cetera' started by D_N Flay Table, Jan 16, 2009.

  1. D_N Flay Table

    D_N Flay Table New Member

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    Hey everyone...
    When do you think the economy will turn around?
    I am sure that many of us here are in professions that rely on the ebb and flow of the economy.

    I am optimistic that it will turn around and be back in full swing by the end of this year.

    what say you?
     
  2. B_Nick4444

    B_Nick4444 New Member

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    your forecast is in line with a large number of analysts

    some others say 1st quarter 2010

    however, just this morning Bloomberg announced a Fed report that showed a surprising improvement in industrial output in the Northeast, 4th quarter, 2008
     
  3. Gl3nn

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    3-5 years for everything to be back to normal
     
  4. Incocknito

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    24 months til we see an upturn and maybe another 24 til we have some sort of boom / happy time.

    I heard this on Question Time so it must be true.
     
  5. B_starinvestor

    B_starinvestor New Member

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    3rd quarter, 2009.
     
  6. BiItalianBro

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    I hope you all are right, but at this point the talking heads and their economic forecasts are about as credible as reading tea leaves. There are way too many shoes out there ready to drop...and until there is some certainty out there, businesses and consumers will keep a tight grip on what cash they have left.
     
  7. D_Diesel Oyl

    D_Diesel Oyl New Member

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    I think this is going to be really bad - if you have cash, keep it. If you have a job, keep it.

    Hold on - it's going to be a bumpy ride
     
  8. Frankg

    Frankg Member

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    It won't turn around quick. This recession is different from past recessions. The difference being that assets were grossly over valued. All the products people have bought in the false boom period of 2003-2006 was with money borrowed against these assets.

    Banks now need that borrowed money back and nobody has the cash. The system is insolvent which takes quite a while to rebound from.
     
  9. Rikter8

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    Agreed...I've heard from several sources that 24 months is the minimum.

    Keep in mind....we haven't hit bottom yet....
     
  10. nudeyorker

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    Start to turn around...I would have to agree third quarter 2009, not the train wreck it is now...at least five years minimum.
     
  11. sargon20

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    Never
    This is the end of days
     
  12. jason_els

    jason_els <img border="0" src="/images/badges/gold_member.gi

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    8-10 years providing we don't keep printing money to pay bills.
     
  13. lucky8

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    Depends on what you mean exactly. Stock market will begin recovering (stabilizing) around sept/oct of this year, unemployment will probably get worse until at least 1st quarter 2010, and we probably won't see much job growth until end of 2010 maybe beginning of 2011. House prices are going to continue to drop until the end of this year...until then, let's enjoy the price deflation that's about to hit
     
  14. dongalong

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    http://www.cfos100.com/research/excitability.php

    (the current recession was predicted in the blue correlation graph)


    There could be a link with sun activity. The sunspot/recession cycles seem to follow each other.
    Remember the central banks (Federal reserve, Bank of England etc.) are run by International bankers who are in total control of interest rate fluctuations, maybe there is a good economic reason for their timing such as more money to be made!!!

    Low solar activity means colder global temperatures which means more fuel is required for heating, higher interest rates and higher fuel prices make people's debt increase to the point where thanks to bankrupsies, reposessions, etc, banks can accumulate properties, businesses etc, and accumulate even more "real" wealth.

    A slow cycle such as the solar cycle is ideal to hide what they are doing from the population. Over decades, these bankers will eventually own all "real" wealth.
     
  15. BiItalianBro

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    Damn thats interesting! I would have called bullshit on that if it was not published in 2002 and more or less spot on!! Gonna put some aluminum foil under my baseball caps =)
     
  16. dongalong

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    Rather than wear a tin foil hat, it might be worth learning about how banks can effect our lives so much.
    Watch this extremely informative documentary which explains how banks have been conning people since the Roman times.
     
  17. D_Bob_Crotchitch

    D_Bob_Crotchitch New Member

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    I agree with you. Society has decayed and imploded. People don't care about their nation. They care about their own selfish interests. It goes from the bottom to the top. When did people start thinking they could spend money like mad and never face a day of reckoning?

    The talking heads who are predicting the turn around are the same ones who said we could be a prosperous society without manufacturing, and buy tons of imports. Do you still trust their judgement?
    The basic principles of economics never change. The talking heads kept saying the four most dangerous words regarding economics, "This time it's different." It sure is different. The nation is falling to pieces, and it has debt out the wazoo.
    BTW the average household would have to cough up over 80k to pay off the national debt. How does that make you feel?
     
    #17 D_Bob_Crotchitch, Jan 18, 2009
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2009
  18. Jason

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    For the UK the first step has to be to get out banks out of the intensive care ward. Even that is a few months away.

    Once the banks start working I think there will be a pick up. of sorts The UK housing mark is characterised by a lack of supply (small land, big population, lots of planning restrictions) and could turn around very quickly. An optimist could see a property-led recovery early 2010.

    But there are other problems out there. On the home front we have a discredited government that is even talking of printing money as a response. The government's spending spree to date costs over £8,000 per person - around double per taxpayer - which is a mill-stone. Britain is outside of the Euro, but problems with the Euro would still cause us problems. Spain, Italy, Portugal,Greece and Ireland are all candidates to crash out of the Euro. Political instability is a big one - Russia cutting off the gas to Europe is a warning of what could come.

    Realistically something more is going to go wrong. I'm thinking earliest late 2011, with the economy doing well by 2014-2016.
     
  19. invisibleman

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    Wiley Miller has the best things to say in his Non Sequitur cartoons.
     
  20. invisibleman

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    Whatever is happening to our economy...I believe that we as Americans HAVE to rebound. I am hoping that our economy can be strengthened. But we have to fix whatever problems we are having in our system that is causing what we are experiencing.

    Fighting only creates the distraction to matters needed attending to.
     
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