Will Barack Obama win the 2012 US Election?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by flame boy, Oct 29, 2010.

?

Will Barack Obama win the 2012 US presidential election?

  1. Yes

    90 vote(s)
    58.1%
  2. No

    65 vote(s)
    41.9%
  1. flame boy

    flame boy Account Disabled

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2008
    Messages:
    8,889
    Likes Received:
    5
    I know it's still a long way off however I was discussing this with a friend online yesterday following President Obama's appearance on The Daily Show.

    Do you think that Obama will win the 2012 US election? It's a poll so cast your vote and feel free to explain your choice!
     
  2. BikerBear

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    May 12, 2009
    Messages:
    960
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    147
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Southampton (GB)
    If Palin runs as the Republican candidate, then yes. If someone else runs, then not a chance in hell.... :mad:
     
  3. maxcok

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2009
    Messages:
    7,392
    Likes Received:
    12
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Elsewhere
    You'll probably get mostly partisan responses on this. Realistically though, it's just way to early to offer a prediction and there are way too many unknown variables in play. I'm not going to venture a guess.

    A good deal depends on the outcome of the mid term elections next week and what sort of Congress is seated in January, almost sure to be more Republican and more conservative. What if anything Obama is able to accomplish over the next year or so will be critical, and gridlock is highly likely. That would normally play to Republican advantage, but if the public begins to see them for the cynical obstructionists they are, and if Obama can carry his message above the fray, it could backfire. That's a tall order for him in the current political climate.

    It depends very much on who he's running against as well. I seriously doubt it will be Sister Sarah Palin. The conventional wisdom would say Mitt Romney is as likely as anyone at this point, but again, too many variables and unknowns to even venture a guess. There's always the possibility that if the president's approval is way down, he could face a challenge from within his own Democratic party as well, Hillary Clinton, for example. And who can predict what financial crises, natural disasters, or international events could shape the campaign between now and Nov 2012?

    Not to mention that with the Supreme Court recently striking down campaign finance laws, there will be an unstoppable flood of corporate money flowing to the Republican challenger. This mid term election is expected to exceed well over $4 billion, surpassing the last mid term by more than a third. Early predictions for the 2012 elections put it in the neighborhood of $10 billion, or double the record setting $5.3 billion spent in 2008. Disgusting, ain't it?

    Whatever happens, Obama has got to take a much stronger stand on issues in the coming year if he's going to succeed and/or be reelected. He needs to be far less conciliatory with the Republicans, and communicate his message and his passion directly to the American people. Regardless of the stakes, regardless of the outcome, he needs to lead with his balls, Hell or highwater. At the end of the day, it's mostly going to depend on where we are in the financial recovery. Americans vote their wallets. In the infamous words of James Carville, "It's the economy, stupid".

     
    #3 maxcok, Oct 29, 2010
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2010
  4. cocktaste

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2007
    Messages:
    1,414
    Likes Received:
    13
    He'll win easily. The Republican Party is now run by the Tea nuts. They have no one viable to run, and quite frankly, after George Bush, Iraq, and the Neocons running the show, they shouldn't get back into power for many decades to come.

    I have an easier time debating Libertarians, then debating Republicans. They get on my nerves!

    With Republicans, they'll still debating if evolution is real or in fact a myth. That's all you need to know. They're still stuck on page one. I wouldn't trust them to take care of anything.

    They've already stated that they're going to shut down the government if they get the majority in Congress, and I have no doubt that they will. They will not work with Obama, and have behaved as such for the last two years that he's been President. They always overreach and it backfires. Obama is going to be in Clinton's situation. The Right will become drunk with power, fuck everything up, and the public will vote against them. They never learn.

    Couldn't happen to a better bunch of dickheads!
     
  5. flame boy

    flame boy Account Disabled

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2008
    Messages:
    8,889
    Likes Received:
    5
    I thought now was an interesting time to ask this, seeing as we roughly midway through his Presidency so we're in a somewhat good position to cast a vote so that later on you can scream "I told you so!".
     
  6. D_Andreas Sukov

    D_Andreas Sukov Account Disabled

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2008
    Messages:
    2,933
    Likes Received:
    3
    Most US Presidents get 2 goes. Then again, most presidents don't face the shit Obama does.

    However, look at the right in America. They are a mess. The media seem to be moving away from the tea party (atleast from my outside view, so improbably wrong.) and the foundation of the republicans are probably uncomfortable with them running thier party.

    It is a trend that money wins the election, but i hope Americans will vote with their head rather than what the man on the TV said.
     
  7. Hoss

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2010
    Messages:
    12,050
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    398
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Eastern town
    It's too early to tell. Much hinges upon Tuesday's midterm results and what happens with the newly seated Houses. If the Democrats maintain their margins but the country and economy remain essentially stagnant (fail to have a massive rebound) then in 2012 President Obama will have a diifficult time (if he seeks a 2nd term),

    If the Republicans take either House and things remain stagnant, then they will have failed. If the economy starts making significant improvement, then they'll take credit (the Democrats would likely do the same if sides were switched, it's the nature of politics).

    The Tea Party, while insane, has awakened the public and although they (The Tea Party) appear clearly bigotted, a few of their core issues to upgrading & strengthening the economy and country have resonated, if they hadn't they'd have not made the gains they have and in such a brief time. Will the Tea Party in 10 years exist? We can't say, there was little belief they'd get this far but they have. Will they help the Dems. or help the Repubs. long term more long term? We'll need to wait and see.

    People want it all yesterday and that hasn't happened (it can't)and the Presiident is suffering the backlash. How will current difficulties effect things 2 yrs away? Recall President Bush (the 1st). In early 1991 when he had the war event in Iraq, his popularity increased, by the end of the next year, Bill Clinton aside, George H.W. Bush was far less revered. He faced a hard battle at being relected regardless the candidate he faced. Voters react to the latest series of events, think back at the rapid decline McCain/Palin had in 2008, October was brutal.

    I didn't cast a vote in the poll, if it had included "Unsure" or "Too soon to say" I likely would have.
     
  8. Hoss

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2010
    Messages:
    12,050
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    398
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Eastern town
    The media is a benefit in that it tells us where each candidate stands, it's a hinderance in that it let's the dollars purchase air time and pages in papers and magazines. A set amount that each candidate was permitted to spend would go a long way in evening things.


    Regarding past Presidents and terms,

    John Adams, John Quincy Adams, Martiin Van Buren, James Polk, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, Rutherford Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush all served 1 term fully and no more. That's a little ahead of 25%. I haven't included Presidents that finished 1 term after the death of a Presiident and no more, or the Presidents that died in their 1st term or the Presidents that finished a term after a dead President and were then elected but 1 time (Truman, Lyndon Johnson) or Gerald Ford who finished the 2nd term of Rchard Nixon, that would bring us past 1/3 the total # that have served as President.
     
  9. BadBoyCanada

    BadBoyCanada New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2010
    Messages:
    77
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    East Coast
    What people forget is that the Republican brand represents around 40% of the country, or roughly 120 million people (I know, not all are voting age). There aren't that many right-wing extremists out there, but would still vote for a centrist individual.

    Rght now, it appears that the independents are abandoning Obama. It's simple, win them back, win the election. If he doesn't, time to brush of the resume.
     
  10. B_VinylBoy

    B_VinylBoy New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2007
    Messages:
    10,516
    Likes Received:
    7
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Boston, MA / New York, NY
    It really depends on what happens after the midterm.
    If corporations are successful enough to manipulate the system (and enough gullible people) to essentially buy seats in Congress through the GOP and the sect known as the Teabaggers (I will never refer to them as a political party), I think that would be the straw that broke the camel's back for many people. Since we know their only real goal is to undo everything this current administration has done and impeach Obama, that would mean more partisan bickering and even less getting done even if the GOP has a majority in the House or the Senate. That could only give Obama an edge (or a really good campaign issue for 2012) if nothing short on being able to say that the current batch of conservatives in office, even with a little bit of power, can't do a damn thing but screw over our nation's people in an attempt to make their handful of rich friends even richer.

    But to make a prediction now? I don't want to get my hopes up. If there's one thing I've learned is to never underestimate the powers of human stupidity. Some American citizens at this point are dumb enough to vote for Rand Paul even after all of his extremely sectarian viewpoints and a video showing one of his campaign people stomping on the head of a weaponless woman. That should be a sign as to how screwed our Nation has become since nominating a Fascist/Socialist/Marxist/Kenyan/Muslim/Elitist/Uppity/Telepromter reading President (sarcastic irony well intended here).
     
    #10 B_VinylBoy, Oct 29, 2010
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2010
  11. ECUBiBoy

    ECUBiBoy New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    104
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    1
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Greenville, NC
    As things currently stand, he is probably a one-term president. This isn't the 1930's where people are left in the dark about economic matters. FDR could get away with the Keynesian spending spree back then when communication was much weaker than it is now. With the Internet, there's nothing Obama can hide about failed stimulus projects, mounting debt that's even worse than Emperor Bush's, silly projects like Cash for Clunkers, and a health care bill that just makes things nicer for Big Pharma.

    On the other hand, if Obama does like past presidents have done and starts a pointless war, this might scare people into thinking we have to keep the same president for purposes of wartime continuity. Statists have been pulling that war-mongering crap since time immemorial. It might happen with Pakistan, Iran, maybe even China or India. This is like the Rally Around the Flag effect that politicians use.
     
  12. D_Chaumbrelayne_Copprehead

    D_Chaumbrelayne_Copprehead Account Disabled

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2008
    Messages:
    8,978
    Likes Received:
    11
    There are great advantages in being the incumbent president.

    The economy is almost certain to be better two years from now, whether what Obama does works or not.

    The only thing that could mess with Obama's plans is if a credible 3rd-party candidate runs. It's all going to come down to independents anyway. It'll be Reagan-vs-Mondale or Clinton-vs.-Dole all over again.
     
  13. B_VinylBoy

    B_VinylBoy New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2007
    Messages:
    10,516
    Likes Received:
    7
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Boston, MA / New York, NY
    Yeah... that same stimulus package that everyone claimed to have failed and doesn't create jobs, even though HUNDREDS of the opposition in Congress have no problem asking for money from it "because it creates jobs" and taking credit for it by posing with local companies & officials with prop check as if they did something.

    Also yeah... that mounting debt that was created by the previous conservative ran administration who have no problem adding a few trillion more to in the form of tax cuts for the wealthiest 2%.

    And another yeah for the so-called Cash for Clunkers program that everyone said was worthless... including one Republican in Congress who is also a car salesman who made hundreds of thousands of dollars from it.

    And for the health care bill that does more than benefit those from Big Pharma, and would have done a lot more if certain fearful Democrats told the obstructionists in the Senate to fuck off when it was clear they didn't want to roll up their sleeves and get a real bill passed.

    Looks like blatant hypocrisy and selective memory goes hand in hand around here. Kinda funny how blind rhetoric becomes more and more clear when some of the details are in place? If Obama is a one time president, it's because too many people foolishly bought into the distortions spewed by his opposition.
     
    #13 B_VinylBoy, Oct 29, 2010
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2010
  14. ECUBiBoy

    ECUBiBoy New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    104
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    1
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Greenville, NC
    Vinyl, I couldn't care less about what Republicans think or do. Just because they're wrong, does not mean Democrats are right.

    Oh, and while I'm at it, I've been meaning to do this for a while -

    MEMO TO DEMOCRAT-LOVING GAY PEOPLE: Just because the Republicans hate gays does not mean the Democrats are looking out for your best interests. You have been duped. Democrats talk about allowing personal freedom but never deliver. If they believed in personal freedom, they would have completely halted the warrantless wire-tapping or perhaps banned the TSA porno scanners at the airports.
     
  15. LambHair McNeil

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2005
    Messages:
    213
    Likes Received:
    1
    Focusing just on domestic economic variables, Obama will be reelected if both the unemployment rate and the US economy as a whole are viewed as being in a good place or making strong moves in that direction.

    On the "what-if" front, if things were such that Obama were seriously challenged from within the Dem party for the nomination in 2012, I'd still lay serious odds on the president again being the party's nominee. Sitting prez's usually do win such types of challenges. However, he might not win the general election at that point.
     
  16. B_VinylBoy

    B_VinylBoy New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2007
    Messages:
    10,516
    Likes Received:
    7
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Boston, MA / New York, NY
    Neither side are completely in the clear.
    But it's blatantly obvious whose ideas & actions are better for this country right now. Stop viewing these things in binary.

    LOL!!!! So wire tapping has something to do with whether or not a gay or lesbian can legally marry, serve openly in the military and not be discriminated against? They're two entirely NON RELATED issues. To desperately try and link them in an attempt to critique gay people for voting Democrat is also stupid. Perhaps if you sucked a few dicks you could figure this one out too?
     
  17. ECUBiBoy

    ECUBiBoy New Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2009
    Messages:
    104
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    1
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Greenville, NC
    Haha, I've sucked quite a few dicks. I'll even blow you if that's what it takes to show I'm not a homophobe. Sucking dick has never led to any urge to vote Democratic though.

    I've always thought that a better solution to the gay marriage question is to abolish marriage licenses and end the favoritism toward married folks. As for the military, we should dramatically reduce it's size and encourage NOBODY to join it. If we had a more free market system, there would be greater opportunities to seek employment outside the war industry. Would you not agree that most people join the service out of job desperation (especially recently)?

    Most of the gay issues miss the point and Democrats use them to drive a wedge between gay and straight people. We need less identification with groups and traits and more identification with one's self as an individual.
     
  18. swordfishME

    swordfishME Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2006
    Messages:
    947
    Likes Received:
    2
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    DFW Texas
    Given what's been going on in the country over the last few hours, I would say a war with Yemen is next....

    It is too early to predict if Obama will win re-election in 2012.........It all depends on the group of people he has to work with after next Tuesday.... If Republicans can secure a majority in both houses (I think a house republican majority next January is a foregone conclusion) it will offer Obama the best chance at re-election: either as someone who can muster bipartisan support on the hill or as someone who is constantly derailed by obstructionists.
     
  19. Mensch1351

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2006
    Messages:
    1,205
    Likes Received:
    24
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    In the only other State that begins with "K"!
    This question really begs the question -- who will the Republican nominee be in 2012. I'm not dumb enough NOT to believe that the American people are more than willing to embrace someone who is totally NOT qualified to serve as President (we're always more apt to leap before we look aka Miss Sarah P!) But given the nature of the Repubs right now --- aside from Sarah P & Mitt Romney..........THEIR big problem is going to be the country saying, "WHO?" They'll certainly have to get their "vetting" dilemas over with before they throw their weight to the "right" person.

    Given the Tea Party's muscle within the regular Republican party -- one of their internal issues is going to be, "Who do we run that we can REALLY be convinced is a true/blue conservative!" Even John McCain's mother said, "A lot of Republicans are going to go to the polls, hold their noses and vote for my son!"

    When 2007 hit I told my son, "boy..........this is going to be a free for all when it comes to those who want this!" And if memory serves me, about 8 Republicans and 9 Democrats ended up throwing their hats into the ring! If Obama runs the Dems already have their candidate and can save their money for the general election. The Republicans will duke it out in the primaries...........and it will be quite a battle indeed!

    BTWay --- Sarah Palin candidate? (ooooh what a dream fantasy!!) Mitt Romney? For those in the UK reading this -- you'd just have to understand the Southern Baptist mindset that would sooner cast it's vote for a dog than for a Mormon! These people would NEVER compromise their vote for someone they perceive as being "less than" a true/blue born again Christian -- no matter WHAT their political principles or how much they totally absolutely despise the current administration --- they would sit the election out...........period!
     
  20. Mensch1351

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2006
    Messages:
    1,205
    Likes Received:
    24
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    In the only other State that begins with "K"!
    My dear boy......................I would like you to quote me ONE Democratic candidate or office holder you know of who has made such vitriolic homophobic statements which in some instances has encouraged not only the hatred of but the violence against gay people! The Republican party AS a party has been much more PRO-active against gays than the Democratic Party has been in ignoring the gay agenda all together. Truth be told --- AS a gay person I would trust a Democratic office holder NOT to try to take away my rights (even if they don't necessarily fight FOR them) than I would EVER trust a Republican who not only believes I'm a sinner destined for hell, but would work mightily to deny me ANY rights as an American (all the while telling the world how valuable EVERY person is!:wink:)
     
Draft saved Draft deleted