Worldwide Elections 2008 #4 - Zimbabwe

[SpeedoGuy]

er, not that it's dong's fault, but doesn't this thread now belong in the Political forum?

 

[dong20]

I can see that being a real issue - getting Mugabe to step back and let Tsvangirai do his job, make changes. My initial reaction is this is the current best realistic solution, a good start to phasing Mugabe out. I hope it works out that way.

I haven't seen dong20 post for a couple of weeks - I'd love his insight on this.

(I expect this'll get moved to the politics section now...)

Well, I have been watching this unfold from Zambia, which was itself undergoing some domestic 'trauma'. Now, I find myself back in the UK (ugh to what's happening here) and it all seems a little remote once again.

My 2c? ... I think Tsvangirai was in error in :

1. Pulling out of the run-off - The 'threat' of violence? He (and his part) has/have been the subject of ample actual violence, yet he pulls out based on a mere 'threat'? I've heard several flavours of theory on exactly why from various sources (of varying reliability) so it's mostly speculation; however I'm pretty sure that the 'threat' of violence wasn't the real reason, or at least not the definitive one.
2. Entering into any agreement with Mugabe. He (Mugabe) was being (slowly) edged into a corner by his intransigence, but of course Mbeki needed to salvage a shred of credibility, and for a brief instance he may have succeeded. Lots of glad handing and all but little actual substance.

The attempt by Mugabe to sideline Tsvangirai was a transparent move by PF to elicit compliance from Tsvangirai - the threat of being cut out of the power loop to an aspiring African politician offers strong inducement to compromise. I'd wager Mbeki was in the loop on this sideshow because it seemed early on that Tsvangirai was holding 'firm' and then comes the 'sudden' breakthrough and unrealistic timetable for agreement.

If he (Mbeki) wasn't involved (or at least complicit) then he needed to ensure the ploy fell flat or he would be an even bigger laughing stock in the region. Of course his subsequent 'sudden' resignation was convenient, the reasons for it should be obvious. My opinion of him has only been confirmed by recent events. Good riddance, IMO.

That Mugabe will likely die in office seems the most likely outcome, exactly how perhaps being the real question. 11 million % inflation ... and a bank withdrawal limit of $20k, Zimbabwean. Alice in Matabeleland.

In essence, Tsvangirai was outmaneuvered and settled far more cheaply than necessary. While the entire deal was little more than an elaborate sham which will likely soon unravel, the administrative and constitutional changes may ultimately serve the longer term interests of Zimbabwe. However, as I expect that within 5 or 10 years the Chinese will 'own' Zimbabwe, perhaps it's largely academic.