Worrying economic predictions.

[Drifterwood]

I always get a bit twitchy when October looms.

I have been seeing a number of serious economists (not the armchair variety like myself) say that the recovery that we have seen is simply what we bought with all the debt our governments have graciously given us.

Is this doom merchanting or a serious possibility in your opinion/experience.

 

[lucky8]

Speaking from an American perspective, I'd say these economists are correct. GDP went from -6% to -1.4%? So our economy just magically improved in the course of a few months? It's the exact same principle as cash for clunkers. The govenment subsidizes, a short term boom occurs. The subsidies end, so does the demand. I'm in disbelief everytime I hear a politician or auto manufacturer claim that the auto demand will still be there after the program ended...it's lunacy. Either they know it won't last and they're lying to us, or they just really are that stupid...neither of which are acceptable

 

[blkbro510]

Are they going to pressure us to go out and buy christmas gifts?

Okay I think it's more on mindset. We got to get out of this self-haterd mindset here's what I mean-bailouts, handouts, refuggees-when refering to ourselves as a country! Yet we will not use these terms when are helping everyone else, as the the worlds police.

We have to see government stepping as invest in ourselves, its our government, its the folks we've elected (if you dont' vote, you kinda did by not voting) and most importantly it's our freakin combined taxes.

Secondly, we have to own our companies instead of unions and start asking questions from companies that out source our jobs to other countries but expect us to buy their brands (even though the job was taken away from you)

I'm not saying I have the answers, but there are little things we change from now to the next 50 years-Rome wasn't built in a day, so don't expect our problems to.

 

[TurkeyWithaSunburn]

I'm waiting 5years before the next collapse. Banks are still doing the same things that led them into trouble and financial crisis.

Risk-taking is back for banks 1 year after crisis - Yahoo! Finance

 

[Drifterwood]

What concerns me is the predominant position of markets. Not markets for real things, but traded instruments including money itself, whose values still seem notional to me.

I think we have some way to go before we agree on real worth rather than ever changing perceived value. Reality check.

 

[deleted136887]

I worry about this as well, but meanwhile, where do you (me) stash your investments? Under the mattress? buy gold? seems there is no more "for sure"
+ I don't think anyone has answers.
One thing I do know on a personal level: One cannot spend one's way out of debt. If you have'nt got, you should'nt spend.
Please wsome economists on this board give some rational insight.

 

[BiItalianBro]

I am worried...i am VERY worried... we are embarked on a (debt) stimulus laden 'push the string' adventure that is built on questionable assumptions. Throw in a geopolitical October Surprise, like Israel attacking Iran (and 2-300 USD p/bbl oil), and the whole thing goes to hell fast.

 

[Drifterwood]

Yes, Instrumental traded markets are makro risks in themselves, throw in something that is also beyond our control and it looks pretty bad. Iran could probably gat away with pretty much anything at the moment.

I don't like gold, but it has its place I suppose. Traditionallly people will sit there until a real recovery begins, and that is the thing I think, be there as that happens. I like things with a good yield gap. But then I am not a risk taker. We need Flash to give us some opinions.

 

[Skull Mason]

I think a lot of the doom and gloom is coming from people who missed the rally and are actually hoping for a market crash. Bottom line, no one can predict the future, and half of everybody will always be right. But I don't think the world is ever as bad and apocalyptic as people make it out to be. Particularly here in the US, as we tend to be extremely overdramatic regarding pretty much anything. If everything has bottomed out then production will ramp up and we will climb our way out of this. The good thing is that a lot of the companies and businesses have shed their fat away and will now operate more efficiently.

 

[Drifterwood]

The US is for sure better placed than most other countries, even if it doesn't seem that way where you are.

 

[SpeedoGuy]

Throw in a geopolitical October Surprise, like Israel attacking Iran (and 2-300 USD p/bbl oil), and the whole thing goes to hell fast.

I worry about that as well. That or India and Pakistan trading a nuke or two.

Imagine what that will do to the security of retirement plans.

 

[Principessa]

The US is for sure better placed than most other countries, even if it doesn't seem that way where you are.

Geographically perhaps, but financially I really don't think so. :no: