Hi !! you have almost all the points there to believe that it is him !! I also think it is him but there is something that makes me doubt ..
* first in almost 20 years his dick would never have leaked and that he did it by mistake in ig history... really ?
* his family and friends they are taking it as a joke what happened .. in a way that makes think that maybe they know it wasn't his dick? Even his mother made a comment that said it was another typical day?
* his brother lives in LA not with chris .. we think he's with him now but we don't know for sure !! dick pic is not so clear to see if it is not of Scott !! maybe Scott send the video from his reel to chris and he didn't realize it when he posted it? The time is important I know .. but it could be from that same day .. he send it at that time and Chris published it a few minutes later.. maybe that's why Scott was joking with that tweet and sending a shadow that maybe it's him or even none of them? ... neither I would not be surprised if it was actually a pic that someone sent him or download... to not show his real dick to someone who.. just met especially being a celebrity ?
* chris has an interview tomorrow maybe there he will say something about all this !! if he apologize for his pic it is totally him... but if he say that they sent he the video without seeing it first that means it was not him !!
I do understand your hesitation since he is a big name, so hopefully I can cover some of those concerns.
- Just because someone slips up after being careful for 20 years, it doesn't mean it wasn't their fault. If it was someone else's fault, like a social media manager, I guarantee they would have fessed up by now and would not let the actor take the blame since their entire job existence is to protect the image of their client, lol. Plus, Chris Evans would not assume the blame over something he didn't do, so his silence makes it more likely that it was indeed his own mistake and his alone.
- Family and friends would not tease someone over something they didn't do, it's assumed they already had a chat with Chris, and as mentioned previously, Scott has lived with him since COVID started and they're very close so it's safe to say he already talked to Chris privately about the situation before making that joke on Twitter. From the latest interview, Scott's still with Chris in Massachusetts, but even if he already moved back to LA that doesn't really change the story.
- As said previously, it's very unlikely that someone other than Chris made that screen recording. For one, someone who was looking to send the video to Chris would just send the original video. They wouldn't send a screen recording of the video. Also, the clip is only 15 seconds long and the dick pic lasts for a good couple seconds at the end. There's no way that Chris would just receive a random video that was sent to him from someone else to post on his Instagram story without reviewing it first. The fact that it has gone unreviewed makes it more likely that Chris himself screen recorded it right before posting it and he never reviewed it. The more people you add in: his brother, his manager, Chris himself, etc. it just gets super convoluted and makes even less sense that a dick pic wouldn't have been caught before publishing, given the fact that the clip is soooo short and easily reviewable. Again, the time lines up with the idea it really is Chris because the screen recording was made at 1:39 ET on September 12, which is EXACTLY when the Instagram story was added.
- I don't think that Chris would just have a "fake dick pic" that he would send to people he's chatting/sexting with just because he's a celeb. It's usually the other way around... people usually PRETEND to be celebrities/famous people, or use their photos pretending they look like that. He's Chris Evans, lol, no need to pretend! Plus, he's been dating inside the Hollywood pool, so it would be pretty weird to have a "fake dick pic" hanging around on his phone for the occasion of sexting since it's assumed you will meet up with these people eventually, so there's no point in misleading people. It would be weird for him to be deceptive over looks like that when he is Chris Evans, lol.
Anyways, I'm looking forward to what he says in an upcoming interview, I'm sure it will be funny regardless.
Here's a GIF of him to compensate for this long message, lol.