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Opponents of gay marriage state that sexual preference is not tantamount to race and therefore the Fourteenth Amendment does not offer protections, however, there too SCOTUS has already stated that this is the case in the recent [/FONT]
Lawrence and Garner v. Texas, when the sodomy laws of Texas were struck down:
These matters, involving the most intimate and personal choices a person may make in a lifetime, choices central to personal dignity and autonomy, are central to the liberty protected by the Fourteenth Amendment. At the heart of liberty is the right to define one’s own concept of existence, of meaning, of the universe, and of the mystery of human life. Beliefs about these matters could not define the attributes of personhood were they formed under compulsion of the State....
When homosexual conduct is made criminal by the law of the State, that declaration in and of itself is an invitation to subject homosexual persons to discrimination both in the public and in the private spheres. The central holding of Bowers has been brought in question by this case, and it should be addressed. Its continuance as precedent demeans the lives of homosexual persons...
The right the petitioners seek in this case has been accepted as an integral part of human freedom in many other countries. There has been no showing that in this country the governmental interest in circumscribing personal choice is somehow more legitimate or urgent...
Our prior cases make two propositions abundantly clear. First,
the fact that the governing majority in a State has traditionally viewed a particular practice as immoral is not a sufficient reason for upholding a law prohibiting the practice; neither history nor tradition could save a law prohibiting miscegenation from constitutional attack. Second,
individual decisions by married persons, concerning the intimacies of their physical relationship, even when not intended to produce offspring, are a form of “liberty” protected by the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. Moreover, this protection extends to intimate choices by unmarried as well as married persons.-
Lawrnece and Garner v. Texas decision citing Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pa. v. Casey
If you're still with me here, you should be able to see how close to impossible it would be for SCOTUS to not, because of many previous decisions, at the least, extend FF&CC to gay marriage/civil unions or, at the most, to extend right of marriage to people of all sexual orientations. I'm not saying it can't happen. SCOTUS has done some pretty dumb things like any other branch of government, but these nine people are scholars of law and, they're not worried about re-election or, "staying the course." Unlike any other branch of government, they have to explain why they decide what they do.
The Supremes aren't stupid, but nor are they entirely apolitical. When a hot-button issue such as gay marriage looms its ugly head, the Supremes know what's coming. Sooner or later it's going to end-up on their doorstep and then all eyes will turn to them. With major social issues, SCOTUS usually waits until it has what's considered, "a perfect case." This is when there are no extenuating circumstances, just a simple, direct, and explicit case where a question of law arises as empirically as possible. To try this case, SCOTUS would want an ordinary gay couple to marry legally in Massachusetts, gain some material, legal, and social value from that marriage, then move to a state where none of their privileges and rights are honored and specifically because of that loss, the couple suffers. There should be no extenuating circumstances, no monkey wrenches, nothing to color or cause question in any ruling SCOTUS could make in the case and that's because the Supremes know that their decision will end-up in everything from tabloids to law books to history classes to chat shows to movies and whatever decision they make must stand the extraordinary scrutiny of legal scholars now and in the future, and not only American but global society itself.
There's a tremendous weight in that. Yes the Executive branch is essentially just the President and Vice-President, but there is the cabinet, advisers, and whole agencies to administer. It's a political position. When you're a Supreme, it's fairly lonely. There are just nine of you and while you do oversee the federal appeals system directly, there's a greater sense of, "the buck stops here." You have the power to override not only lower courts, but congress, the constitutions of the various states, and the president, sometimes all four at the same time. This is one of those times when that perfect storm occurs and SCOTUS will wait until the perfect case presents itself so that even if many people are angered by the decision that awaits, they will understand why it has been made, and the decision of the court will stand the test of time.